后疫情時(shí)代下，中國(guó)—東盟應(yīng)如何攜手化“危”為“機(jī)”？

關(guān)秋韻

自新冠肺炎疫情暴發(fā)以來(lái)，中國(guó)—東盟區(qū)域不僅是遭受疫情沖擊較早的地區(qū)，也是最先開展國(guó)際合作共同應(yīng)對(duì)疫情挑戰(zhàn)并取得成績(jī)的地區(qū)。然而，隨著“后疫情時(shí)代”有望到來(lái)，面對(duì)復(fù)雜的國(guó)際形勢(shì)，中國(guó)—東盟需要應(yīng)對(duì)哪些新的挑戰(zhàn)？新機(jī)遇能否在雙方共克時(shí)艱中萌生？中國(guó)與東盟又能否攜手應(yīng)對(duì)挑戰(zhàn)，化“?！睘椤皺C(jī)”呢？

在近期舉行的第十三屆中國(guó)—東盟智庫(kù)戰(zhàn)略對(duì)話論壇（以下簡(jiǎn)稱智庫(kù)論壇）上，與會(huì)嘉賓圍繞這些問題展開了深入探討。

前路并非坦途

長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，中國(guó)—東盟關(guān)系總體保持健康穩(wěn)定地發(fā)展，但前路并非一片坦途。其中，域外國(guó)家對(duì)國(guó)際局勢(shì)的影響是最主要的外部挑戰(zhàn)，如何應(yīng)對(duì)域外國(guó)家的負(fù)面影響，已經(jīng)成為中國(guó)—東盟關(guān)系發(fā)展無(wú)法回避的重要問題之一。

“某些西方大國(guó)目前正大力推進(jìn)‘印太經(jīng)濟(jì)框架，以四邊機(jī)制為主要平臺(tái)，圍繞貿(mào)易、經(jīng)濟(jì)、科技以及有韌性的供應(yīng)鏈、減碳、清潔能源、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施調(diào)控標(biāo)準(zhǔn)等方面，在中國(guó)和東盟之間打入其他的經(jīng)濟(jì)援助，中國(guó)在該領(lǐng)域的合作項(xiàng)目可能會(huì)因?yàn)檫@些干擾和阻礙出現(xiàn)變數(shù)。若這個(gè)框架向湄公河流域滲透，形成海陸并進(jìn)的態(tài)勢(shì)，東盟未來(lái)‘選邊站的壓力會(huì)不斷增大。”北京大學(xué)國(guó)際關(guān)系學(xué)院教授、泰國(guó)法政大學(xué)比里·帕儂榮國(guó)際學(xué)院特聘教授楊保筠分析稱，“但亦不必過度擔(dān)心，東盟國(guó)家對(duì)于任何帶有遏制排他性的政策都十分地警惕，與中國(guó)合作共贏始終是東盟各國(guó)的一個(gè)戰(zhàn)略共識(shí)?！?/p>

“我們也需關(guān)注東南亞民眾對(duì)華認(rèn)知的變化，疫情暴發(fā)后，東南亞國(guó)家內(nèi)部不同社會(huì)群體對(duì)華認(rèn)知出現(xiàn)了一些差異?！彼拇ㄊ∩鐣?huì)科學(xué)院印度研究中心副主任陳吉祥表示。

一方面東盟國(guó)家與民眾對(duì)中國(guó)的表現(xiàn)予以積極評(píng)價(jià)。根據(jù)印尼外交政策協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的《2021年度中國(guó)—東盟關(guān)系民調(diào)報(bào)告》來(lái)看，東盟10國(guó)中67%的受訪者認(rèn)可或者強(qiáng)烈認(rèn)可中國(guó)和東盟的緊密合作，相信這能夠幫助東南亞分擔(dān)疫情的沖擊;但另一方面，也有一些民眾對(duì)于大量使用中國(guó)疫苗表示顧慮，而這些無(wú)疑都需要雙方進(jìn)一步地增信釋疑。

“加之新冠肺炎疫情對(duì)雙邊的人文交流造成了一定的影響，中國(guó)—東盟的人員往來(lái)受阻，包括旅游和商務(wù)往來(lái)人數(shù)都急劇減少，雙方留學(xué)生也無(wú)法到對(duì)方國(guó)家正常學(xué)習(xí)，很多對(duì)話交流只能通過線上來(lái)進(jìn)行，長(zhǎng)此以往并不利于雙方，尤其是民間民眾增進(jìn)了解?！标惣檠a(bǔ)充說(shuō)道。

化“?！睘椤皺C(jī)”，中國(guó)—東盟應(yīng)攜手應(yīng)對(duì)

隨著后疫情時(shí)代的機(jī)遇與危機(jī)一一顯現(xiàn)，“緊抓機(jī)遇”“加強(qiáng)合作”成為中國(guó)—東盟攜手應(yīng)對(duì)挑戰(zhàn)的關(guān)鍵詞。那么想要化“?！睘椤皺C(jī)”，中國(guó)—東盟合作路在何方？

在中國(guó)東南亞研究會(huì)會(huì)長(zhǎng)、廣西八桂學(xué)者莊國(guó)土看來(lái)，加強(qiáng)雙方戰(zhàn)略協(xié)調(diào)，增進(jìn)政治互信是中國(guó)—東盟抵御外界政治威脅的重要力量。雙方應(yīng)強(qiáng)化高層戰(zhàn)略對(duì)話與政策溝通，把中國(guó)的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和東盟國(guó)家的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略相互嵌入與深度對(duì)接，凝聚起更多共識(shí)。

“夯實(shí)民意基礎(chǔ)也是雙方需要努力的方向。”中國(guó)—東盟商務(wù)理事會(huì)執(zhí)行理事長(zhǎng)、RCEP產(chǎn)業(yè)合作委員會(huì)主席許寧寧說(shuō)，政治互信來(lái)自于民意基礎(chǔ)，經(jīng)濟(jì)合作也離不開民意基礎(chǔ)，要下足功夫做民心相通，推動(dòng)民意基礎(chǔ)的改善。在遵守民心相通規(guī)律的前提下，充分發(fā)揮社會(huì)民間的力量，包括智庫(kù)、青年教育、媒體、文化等領(lǐng)域的合作，增進(jìn)相互了解與相互信賴。

楊保筠則認(rèn)為，后疫情時(shí)代下，加強(qiáng)疫情防控、加快疫苗研發(fā)和生產(chǎn)依舊是保障各領(lǐng)域良好穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的首要任務(wù)，也是最終決定能否戰(zhàn)勝疫情的關(guān)鍵。

“首先，我們需要積極與東盟國(guó)家開展疫苗研發(fā)合作，以實(shí)際行動(dòng)促進(jìn)疫苗的可及性和可負(fù)擔(dān)性，幫助東盟戰(zhàn)勝疫情。其次，合作建立完善的中國(guó)—東盟公共衛(wèi)生安全合作新秩序，實(shí)行輪值主席國(guó)制度，重大問題表決決定。最后，盡快啟動(dòng)中國(guó)—東盟公共衛(wèi)生應(yīng)急聯(lián)絡(luò)網(wǎng)，組織實(shí)施中國(guó)—東盟公共衛(wèi)生行政人員培訓(xùn)班等項(xiàng)目，協(xié)助東盟國(guó)家加強(qiáng)衛(wèi)生能力建設(shè)?！睏畋ｓ拚f(shuō)。

而面對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇這一時(shí)代命題，老撾社會(huì)與經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué)院企業(yè)發(fā)展政策與國(guó)際融合研究中心副主任、研究員馮薩萬(wàn)·西提德斯說(shuō)：“疫情暴發(fā)以來(lái)，數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)新產(chǎn)業(yè)、新業(yè)態(tài)不斷涌現(xiàn)，成為推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的重要引擎。加強(qiáng)創(chuàng)新、信息技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)開發(fā)將成為東盟各國(guó)政府圍繞新一輪科技產(chǎn)業(yè)制高點(diǎn)、培育新經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)力的重要出發(fā)點(diǎn)，在不久的將來(lái)，老撾希望可以與中國(guó)在中國(guó)—東盟合作框架下進(jìn)行數(shù)字領(lǐng)域的合作和協(xié)作。”她強(qiáng)調(diào)，在穩(wěn)固中國(guó)—東盟經(jīng)貿(mào)合作的基礎(chǔ)上培育經(jīng)濟(jì)新模式，不僅有助于激活后疫情時(shí)代的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，還將增加?xùn)|盟抵御外界經(jīng)濟(jì)威脅的能力。

“后疫情時(shí)代下，中國(guó)和東盟面臨困難與挑戰(zhàn)不可避免，但只要雙方攜手應(yīng)對(duì)，共克時(shí)艱，團(tuán)結(jié)合作，自然能將‘危轉(zhuǎn)化為‘機(jī)?！痹S寧寧在接受記者采訪時(shí)這樣說(shuō)道。

進(jìn)入后疫情時(shí)代，中國(guó)—東盟深化合作的前景如何？

當(dāng)我們回顧中國(guó)—東盟關(guān)系多年來(lái)的發(fā)展歷程，大概率會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，這是一個(gè)由危機(jī)驅(qū)動(dòng)的合作。從金融危機(jī)到非典疫情，再到新冠肺炎疫情，雙方經(jīng)歷了一次次重大考驗(yàn)，鍛造了更為牢固的伙伴關(guān)系。馬來(lái)西亞《新海峽時(shí)報(bào)》近日刊文分析稱，即使進(jìn)入后疫情時(shí)代，中國(guó)—東盟在各領(lǐng)域的合作還將向前推進(jìn)，雙方善于從共同直面問題和挑戰(zhàn)中尋求發(fā)展新機(jī)。

持有同樣樂觀態(tài)度的，還有中國(guó)國(guó)際問題研究院副研究員杜蘭。她在智庫(kù)論壇上說(shuō)道：“首先，雙方發(fā)展關(guān)系的政治意愿在不斷增強(qiáng)。攜手抗疫的這一年多來(lái)，中國(guó)與東盟都對(duì)加強(qiáng)雙邊政治互信、維護(hù)共同利益的需求形成了高度認(rèn)識(shí)。例如，中國(guó)—東盟關(guān)于應(yīng)對(duì)南海問題、緬甸問題、氣候變化、發(fā)展減貧等地區(qū)熱點(diǎn)、全球治理問題的合作需求正在加深。在前不久落幕的中國(guó)—東盟建立對(duì)話關(guān)系30周年紀(jì)念峰會(huì)上，雙方更是由‘戰(zhàn)略伙伴關(guān)系升級(jí)為‘全面戰(zhàn)略伙伴關(guān)系，中方表示要推動(dòng)高質(zhì)量共建‘一帶一路，針對(duì)東盟提出的‘印太展望開展合作，這在疫情陰霾籠罩全球、貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義抬頭等背景下顯得難能可貴?！?/p>

杜蘭認(rèn)為，接下來(lái)，中國(guó)會(huì)更積極地展現(xiàn)出應(yīng)有的大國(guó)擔(dān)當(dāng)，推動(dòng)中國(guó)—東盟進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)政治戰(zhàn)略上的協(xié)調(diào)對(duì)接，東盟國(guó)家會(huì)積極支持中方提出的全球發(fā)展倡議主張，雙方將成為共同應(yīng)對(duì)各類挑戰(zhàn)不可缺少的伙伴。她說(shuō)：“雙方經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的復(fù)蘇前景向好，合作需求將更加旺盛。中國(guó)是率先走出疫情影響的國(guó)家，根據(jù)IMF（國(guó)際貨幣基金組織）最新預(yù)測(cè)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將在2022年達(dá)到8.4%，東盟10國(guó)除緬甸外，也都有望恢復(fù)正增長(zhǎng)。”

“此外，‘十四五期間，中國(guó)進(jìn)入新發(fā)展階段，將實(shí)踐更大力度更高水平的對(duì)外開放。東盟作為中國(guó)雙循環(huán)新發(fā)展格局下的一個(gè)重點(diǎn)合作地區(qū)，其產(chǎn)能的成本優(yōu)勢(shì)和中國(guó)完備的制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈配套可以形成有效互補(bǔ)，從而編織成聯(lián)系緊密的經(jīng)濟(jì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)。加之中國(guó)—東盟自貿(mào)區(qū)3.0版建設(shè)已在規(guī)劃中，《區(qū)域全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》（RCEP）正式生效等政策加持，傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)貿(mào)將向跨境金融、數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)等高附加值方向升級(jí)拓展?！倍盘m這樣說(shuō)道。

也許我們并不確定疫情何時(shí)會(huì)徹底過去，也無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)接下來(lái)的國(guó)際形勢(shì)將如何發(fā)展，但努力推動(dòng)中國(guó)—東盟良好發(fā)展協(xié)作，進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大合作的積極外溢效應(yīng)，提升雙邊合作水平，推動(dòng)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，實(shí)現(xiàn)社會(huì)繁榮是我們始終堅(jiān)定要走的道路。

Vietnam is likely to see near-term benefits from its membership in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership， a free trade agreement to come into force in January， following the November 2 ratification by Australia and New Zealand.

Fifteen Asia-Pacific nations have signed the RCEP， including China， South Korea， Japan， Australia， New Zealand， and the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members — Brunei， Cambodia， Indonesia， Laos， Malaysia， Myanmar， the Philippines， Singapore， Thailand， and Vietnam.

It is widely considered the worlds largest free trade deal， accounting for approximately 30% of the worlds population and 30% of global gross domestic product. It is ultimately expected to remove tariffs on more than 90% of goods traded in the region.

Vietnam considers RCEP to be one of a series of successes in international economic integration， especially in the context of COVID-19 and the needs of economic recovery. Along with 14 Vietnamese free trade agreements already in effect， RCEP is expected to allow Vietnamese exports to enter more markets at lower tariff rates.

Steven Okun， senior adviser at geostrategic consultancy McLarty Associates， told VOA that RCEP is a significant agreement， especially when it comes to making trade easier and better integrating supply chains.

“In long term， if RCEP brings greater China， Japan， and Korea closer on trade， this would limit U.S. economic integration in the region but could offer opportunities for countries in Southeast Asia， including Vietnam. It would likely not impact the ongoing shift of supply chains out of China，” he said.

Cheaper imports

For Vietnam， RCEP will also pave the way for cheaper imports， especially of materials needed for production. Within ASEAN alone， Vietnams annual imports of raw materials and production equipment exceed US$ 30 billion. In addition， Vietnam still has a trade deficit of several tens of billions of dollars per year with major markets such as China and South Korea， according to the Ministry of Planning and Investments newspaper.

Raw materials imported from RCEP countries will be considered as raw materials produced in Vietnam when products are exported to RCEP member countries. This allows the exported product to be labeled as made in Vietnam， lowering tariffs imposed by the importing country. These are also countries that provide a huge amount of raw material for Vietnams billion-dollar export industries， such as electronics， components， textiles， footwear， and others.

“Therefore， Vietnam enjoys many benefits from RCEP， when it has strong products such as agriculture and fishery meeting the needs of most RCEP members. Thanks to the harmonization of rules of origin within the RCEP bloc， Vietnamese goods can more easily meet conditions for enjoying preferential tariffs and increase exports in the region， especially Japan， South Korea， Australia， and New Zealand，” the newspaper said.

Phan Thi Thanh Xuan， vice president of Vietnam Leather， Footwear and Handbag Association， said that the industry will benefit from the advantage of importing raw materials from China under RCEP. Vietnam can already import the raw materials under the ASEAN-China FTA， but Vietnamese-manufactured exports to countries other than China or other ASEAN members are not considered to have been made in Vietnam. Under the RCEP， such exports to Japan or other RCEP signatories benefit from lower tariffs as products made in Vietnam.

Concerns about domestic market

From Vietnams perspective， participation in RCEP brings both pros and cons. While the prospect of increasing exports would lead to positive economic growth indicators for Vietnam， there are concerns over how the agreement will affect the domestic market， where small and medium-size enterprises， which account for 98% of companies， will expect a flood of goods from elsewhere.

In the footwear industry， for example， Thanh Xuan said small and medium-size companies must improve to survive as “the inner strength is very weak. In a competitive market， if they dont improve， they are easily eliminated.”

“In fact， the share of the number of SMEs accounts for 60% in the footwear industrybut the contribution to exports is low， at less than 20%. In contrast， foreign direct investment and big enterprises in Vietnam account only about 30 to 40%， but their proportion of exports is up to 80 to 90%，” she said.

“There are advantages as well that help Vietnam improve its capacity. In the footwear industry， Vietnam has many additional advantages， and is currently the second-largest source of footwear exports in the world. We also created a fairly long-term supply chain with major markets. Foreign investment in Vietnam is a long-term process， accounting for a fairly large proportion，” Thanh Xuan told VOA.

She added： “In general， the growth potential for this industry is still very good， still competitive， and still earning reputation within big brands — they still maintain orders in Vietnam， and foreign investors are still committed to continue manufacturing in Vietnam， at least for another 10 to 20 years.”

Okun， who is also the former chair of the American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore， said Vietnam has a major advantage over most RCEP members because it has signed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership， another trade agreement.

He said the CPTPP also has “high-quality digital trade rules which， if fully implemented， would strengthen Vietnam's digital economy and open up new opportunities for the digital economy to be the next engine of growth for Vietnam.”

“Vietnam should act immediately to implement its commitments within the CPTPP and go beyond by establishing new digital trade agreements， such as with key partners such as Singapore. This would enable Vietnam to maintain its preferential position in developing a foundation for its economic recovery， being one of the few countries to benefit from both RCEP and the CPTPP and maximizing its opportunities for growth through the digital economy，” he told VOA.

· Source： Voice of America