China’s Rise: Historical Inevitability and Realistic Path

Yu Jun

China’s Rise: Historical Inevitability and Realistic Path

Yu Jun

When Foreign Minister Wang Yi summed up the international situation and Chinese diplomacy in 2016, he pointed out that every transformation and change has its internal dynamics and a set pattern. Those who can grasp the underlying trend of these will be in an advantageous position to set the pace of change and shape events.1Wang Yi, “China’s Diplomacy in 2016: Blazing New Paths and Making New Progress,” China International Studies, No.1, 2017, p.22.Reinvention and Renewal of Civilizations: Period of Strategic Opportunities from a Historical Perspective, authored by Xu Jian, Vice President and Senior Research Fellow of China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), attempts to find a pattern for China’s civilizational revival and a realistic path for China’s rise through an analysis of the changes currently underway and the strategic opportunities they represent for China over the next ten years. Adopting a historical perspective, the author displays great foresight and the book’s “views are quite unique,”2Comments from former Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing. See Xu Jian, Reinvention and Renewal of Civilizations: Period of Strategic Opportunities from a Historical Perspective, preface, p.1.which is highlighted in the following eight aspects:

Exploring the patterns of rise and fall of different civilizations and reevaluating the period of strategic opportunities.The author, by comparing their historical paths, believes that the rise and fall of Eastern and Western civilizations follows basically the same pattern, that is, they both depend on the vitality of self-renewal and their ability to adjust to externalchanges. The revival of Eastern and Western civilizations was achieved through the reinvention of civilizations. The revival of Western civilization in the late Middle Ages and its rise to establish a dominant position in modern times, has been the result of comprehensive reconstruction by absorbing the achievements of other civilizations through the process of constant exchanges and intense collisions. Chinese civilization has been in the process of breaking free of the shackles of the past since 1840 and is undergoing overall reconstruction. China’s reform and opening up is carrying out the reconstruction of the Chinese civilization with unprecedented vigor, which is bound to make the great renewal of the Chinese nation a historical inevitability.

The rise and fall of both Eastern and Western civilizations depends on the vitality of selfrenewal and their ability to adjust to external changes.

Several major changes have taken place to present China with a period of strategic opportunities as adjustments to the international system are occurring alongside China’s socio-economic transformation.The book argues that the conditions for a period of strategic opportunities for China are shifting, from being relatively stable and spontaneous to being more fragile. Making the most of these opportunities depends on its ability to actively shape the changing situation, and to successfully complete the transformation of its development mode from scale expansion to quality enhancement. This transition significantly raises the economic and social costs of maintaining and utilizing this period of strategic opportunities. Therefore, China needs to strengthen its ability to manage the complex international strategic environment, enhance its competitiveness with innovation, and increase its capacity to actively create a favorable external environment for the transformation, upgrading and sustainability of China’s socio-economic development.

Learning from the lessons at home and abroad to utilize the period of strategic opportunities.The author, summing up historical experience, believes that strategic patience and composure is essential to create and capture the strategic opportunities in this period. China should show wisdomin choosing what to do and what not to do, and choosing what to strive for and what not to strive for, to avoid confrontation with the established powers. China should disperse pressure, follow the trends of the times and avoid becoming the international focus of conflicts. Major powers are supposed to minimize the impact of strategic incidents, establish effective crisis and risk management mechanisms, maintain an elastic international system with benign interactions, rather than hostile and rigid ones, and learn from the experiences of others so it can play the role of “ balancer” with goodwill.

Navigating the complex international environment and correctly understanding changes in global trends.Xu perspicaciously points out that in the post-financial crisis era, the adjustment of the world structure, the reconstruction of international system and the integration of global geopolitical strategies are intertwined, and that we have entered a period featuring more profound and complex global changes. The tortuosity and complexity of the multipolarization process are being further demonstrated. With great-power competition intensifying, the power to make the rules and shape the order has become the focus. The emerging global issues serve as the means for the transformation of the international system, and establishing an effective global governance system has become an inevitable major trend. Against this backdrop, China has been pushed to the center of world stage, shifting its focus from the regional situation to global issues and paying more attention to the world order rather than the regional order.

Transformation and upgrading of China’s development mode is facing enormous pressures and opportunities from within and without.According to Xu, the task of development constitutes a major internal challenge for China. First, China, being in the middle stage of industrialization, has to change its development mode and adjust its economic structure while maintaining steady economic growth and healthy development. Second, the problems of its irrational industrial structure, slow transformation and sluggish upgrading, and low-quality economic growth are being exposed. Inadequate industrial research input and poor technologicalinnovation capacity have become the restricting elements. Third, domestic demand is yet to be fully released. Fourth, the constraints of natural resources and the ecological environment have become increasingly pressing. As for the external challenges, not being marginalized as the global rules change, and avoiding conflicts and confrontation with the major powers have become big challenges for China.

Reinvention and Renewal of Civilizations: Period of Strategic Opportunities from a Historical Perspective, authored by CIIS Vice President Xu Jian, is an attempt to identify the pattern of China’s civilizational revival and a realistic path for China’s rise through historical analysis.

Take a look at the opportunities. The size of the Chinese economy now ranks second in the world; its infrastructure is still improving, as well as its industrial supporting capacity; the national savings rate is significantly higher than that of most countries; the new urbanization is steadily advancing; the contribution of human capital and scientific and technological innovation to economic growth is constantly increasing; the comprehensive deepeningof reform releases an institutional bonus, and a higher level of opening up brings more technological spillover effects; while the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative gains broader external space for development. In addition, the new scientific and technological revolution, the transformation of global industries, and China’s own economic transition and upgrading constitute a unique point in history, providing great opportunities for the high-end orientation, large-scale development and the internationalization of Chinese industries. Therefore, there is still great potential for China’s economic and social development, and China possesses the perfect conditions to achieve transformation and upgrade of its development mode.

China’s foreign relations and international behavioral pattern are in need of adjustment.The book highlights that the construction of a new type of major-country relations should go beyond the Western traps of “strength only,” “interests only” and “zero-sum logic,” bear in mind the general direction of China-US relations, grasp the historical opportunity for the development of bilateral relations, and promote relations to a new level through consolidating their essence and setting up new standards.

Its neighboring area is China’s strategic support base. Building a new regional security mechanism is an important part of China’s neighborhood relations. Given that it will take a long time to bridge the regional divisions, strategic disputes and political contradictions in Northeast Asia, the old and new regional security structures will coexist for a long time, and it is inevitable that relations between those structures will need to be managed. To make the two mutually inclusive, adaptive, and complementary, rather than opposite and exclusive, it is necessary to combine the construction of the security order with the realization of a community of shared future for mankind through multiple approaches.

Developing countries are important pivots for China to grasp the period of strategic opportunities. Under the new world situation, the ways of China’s cooperation with developing countries are in great need of innovation: carrying out a clearer distinction strategy, comprehensively utilizing different levels of cooperation mechanisms and forums; takingadvantage of the connectivity function of the Belt and Road Initiative; making use of and innovating existing bilateral and multilateral mechanisms, thus injecting new impetus to create new approaches of cooperation between China and developing countries.

Influence of “global commons” issues has become increasingly farreaching.One of the main challenges for China as it becomes a maritime power is how to make a choice when faced with the reshaping of maritime order. China has not yet found an appropriate approach to coordinate the domestic and international situations and rules when dealing with maritime issues. Despite irrationalities in the existing maritime order, China should not seek to start again from the beginning, and should instead play a constructive role as a participant and gradually improve the existing order.

Despite irrationalities in the existing maritime order, China should not seek to start again from the beginning, and should instead play a constructive role as a participant and gradually improving the existing order.

Space will be the future military “commanding height.” China is in the process of transforming from a big space country to a great space power, and expectations and reliance on China from various parties in the field of outer space are on the rise. In this regard, China should make full use of its space technology and resources to promote the transformation and upgrading of its economic development, at the same time play the role of a responsible major power and actively participate in the rules making for outer space.

Cyberspace has become another arena for international competition. China has become a big network country, but not a network power. It is tahe strategic necessity for China to establish its cyberspace strategy and agenda at the earliest date. For a long time, development, security and governance will be the three pillars and priorities of China’s cyberspace strategic agenda.

The need to strengthen cultural construction and enhance soft power and international discourse power has become more pressing.An advanced culture with Chinese characteristics in the new era mustbe consistent with the times, possess national features and be inclusive. To conform to the times, China should grasp the theme of the times. To embrace national features, China should deal with the issue of cultural development based on its domestic conditions. The inclusiveness of cultural construction is reflected on how to treat the import of Western knowledge and export of Chinese knowledge.

An advanced culture with Chinese characteristics in the new era must be consistent with the times, possess national features and be inclusive.

Xu Jian elaborates in his book that China’s soft power and international discourse power lags far behind the needs of foreign exchanges and international expectations. From a future perspective, to elevate its international discourse power, China needs to: advocate new ideas and new concepts along with the trend of the times, actively participate in setting the international agenda, and play a leading role in the establishment of international mechanisms, norms and order. Furthermore, China should pay more attention to seeking common ground while reserving differences and accumulating converging ideas while neutralizing disputes, in order to form common concepts, collective consensuses and identities to ease apprehensions from the outside world.

To sum up,Reinvention and Renewal of Civilizations: Period of Strategic Opportunities from a Historical Perspectiveby Xu Jian embodies perspicacious research into the changes that are taking place in the international order and the strategic opportunities they offer China. It reveals the endogenous dynamics and historical pattern, and thus demonstrates the inevitability of China’s rise and a realistic path for its rise. This book will certainly be an inspiration for policymakers and researchers.

Yu Jun is Professor and Director of the Research Center of International Affairs and Chinese Diplomacy, Chinese Academy of Governance.