Trump’s ‘New Vision’ and China’s Diplomatic Options

Ruan Zongze

Trump’s ‘New Vision’ and China’s Diplomatic Options

Ruan Zongze

On January 20, 2017, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 45th President of the United States. In his inaugural address, he stressed that “from this day forward, a new vision will govern our land,” and “from this day forward, it’s going to be only America first.” He also said that the United States “stands at the birth of a new millennium.”1The White House, “The Inaugural Address: Remarks of President Donald J. Trump,” January 20, 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/inaugural-address.Obviously, the essence of President Trump’s new vision is to construct a new century in which the United States will be the leader and the country will be made great again.

The international situation in the 21st century has been going through great changes. China-US relations are faced with both risks and opportunities. Over the coming four years, China will be in the crucial period of completing its 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20) and realizing the first of its two centenary goals. How will China-US relations evolve during this period? Will any damaging events happen? What are the concerns and fears about China-US relations? Will the two countries achieve a “soft landing” and avoid “head-on collision?” Should China be passive or take the initiative to guide the development of bilateral relations? All these are vital questions confronting us. This paper will first analyze Trump’s foreign policy stance and his concepts for governance, then explore the changes that will occur in interactions between China and the United States and thepossible challenges that might emerge, before finally putting forward some observations and thoughts on shaping the future of China-US relations.

Trump’s New Vision

Since Donald Trump took office, he has shown his ambition to “make America great again” by putting “America first.” His governance has shown the following features: policy decisions are made by a small circle of people, actions are taken swiftly, and Twitter is frequently used to convey the administration’s message to the people. Sensational remarks are made and immediate results are very much hoped for. President Trump favors executive orders, since they require no approval from Congress and give opponents no chance to constrain him. The only thing he needs to do is to put his name on these orders, thus creating “Trump shocks.”

Trump’s policy list touches on a great number of issues, including diplomacy, economy and trade, defense, energy and immigration, etc., all of which reflect his preoccupation with “America first” and prioritizing domestic affairs while taking into account external matters. The issues include: fighting against extremist organizations such as the Islamic State; withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and saying no to those countries that violate trade agreements; striving to realize an annual economic growth rate of 4 percent, adding 25 million jobs over the next ten years, cutting personal and corporate income tax and simplifying the tax system, and expanding infrastructure building; rebuilding the armed forces, prioritizing the Cyber Command’s capabilities and developing advanced missile defense systems to maintain the US military superiority; enhancing energy development; and putting an end to illegal immigration and strengthening border enforcement. In particular, President Trump signed an executive order on January 27 that suspended receiving any refugees within 120 days, prohibited the admission of refugees from Syria indefinitely, strictly enforced some immigration provisionsand barred citizens from Iraq, Iran, Syria, Sudan, Yemen, Libya and Somalia from entering into the United States within 90 days. This order against Muslims triggered public outrage, and large-scale protests and demonstrations took place both inside and outside the US. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif commented that Trump’s immigration order was “an insult to the whole country of Iran.” Secretary-General Antonio Guterres of the United Nations, when he met with the media, called on President Trump to remove as soon as possible the executive order prohibiting refugee immigration.2“UN Secretary-General Urges US to Lift Refugee Ban,” China News, February 2, 2017, http://www. chinanews.com/gj/2017/02-02/8138865.shtml.

In order to bring his “100-day New Deal” into force, President Trump vowed to make a clean break from all the policies pursued by the administration of his predecessor Barack Obama. The TPP became his first target. Barack Obama saw the TPP as a major economic pillar for carrying out his administration’s strategy of rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific, so as to set the rules for the next generation of economic and trade relations in the Asia-Pacific and regain the United States’ dominance in trade. Obama publicly declared that China could not be allowed to write the global trade rules, and the US should play the leading role. Contemptuous of his predecessor, Trump regards the TPP as too flashy. He is committed to bilateral agreements which demonstrate “America first,” and he intends to restart the NAFTA talks and keep more jobs and benefits in the United States.

To reinforce the rationality of his policies, Trump depicted the United States as being in a state of decay in his combative inaugural address, in which he talked of the industrial decline, weakened military power, lost border control, dilapidated infrastructure, bad policies that enriched others at the expense of Americans, and a worrying situation in which “the wealth, strength and confidence of our country has dissipated over the horizon.”He asserted “this American carnage stops right here and stops right now”and claimed that “protection will lead to great prosperity and strength.” Hevowed to prevent the relocation of enterprises, reduce the tax rate, improve the competitiveness of American products, and bring back outsourced jobs to the country. He also promised to levy punitive tariffs of up to 35 percent on products by outflowed enterprises, and expressed his determination to revitalize America’s infrastructure which has fallen into disrepair and decay.

President Trump takes “America first” as the starting point for all his policies. Its deep-rooted rationale lies in the “American disease” of the 21st Century. Although the United States won the Cold War, the country has suffered since. After the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001, Washington started two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. But unsolved problems have enraged the United States, which has never stopped complaining of the arduous but thankless job of “planting other people’s land at the expense of one’s own.” Many Americans think that the country is challenged by increasing domestic contradictions and a deteriorating political landscape while the United States’ allies have become greedier and its opponents show it less respect. Americans can also see for themselves the declining living standards in the country, the relocating enterprises, hollowed-out manufacturing, and outflow of job opportunities. Although big companies make big profits overseas, American workers gain no benefits. The financial crisis in 2008 worsened the situation, causing high unemployment and an economic downturn that resulted in a shrinking middle class and a widening gap between the rich and the poor. Barack Obama used taxpayers’money to support Wall Street and big companies that had gone bankrupt, resulting in a confrontation between the 1 percent of the population who were winners and the other 99 percent of Americans who saw themselves as losers. Of late, the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street are a vivid portrayal of American society which has been torn apart. The slogans put forward by President Trump, such as “America first” and “make America great again”have hit a raw nerve in American society. He means that America should do a good job in its domestic affairs by only employing Americans and buying American goods.

From a historical point of view, the “Trump phenomenon” is by nomeans an accidental coincidence. It is not only the outcome of populist movement upheld by the middle and lower classes in the United States, but also a correction to the liberalism that has been prevailing in the country for decades. America has always claimed to be the beacon, and it believes in its Manifest Destiny and exceptionalism. For a long time, these ideas have been fostered by the United States power superiority, and became a kind of social ideology under the cloak of internationalism and liberalism. However, Trump has pricked this bubble. By integrating Christianity, white nationalism, populism and Republican right-wingers, Trump has tried to construct a new ideology. This can be seen from the composition of the Trump team, which comprises a “super rich” cabinet of hawkish soldiers, Republican right-wingers and Wall Street senior executives, plus a team of advisors with strong religious and conservative minds. This is one of the reasons for Trump’s successful counteroffensive in the campaign. Although Trump has never held any public office, yet he cleverly turned his weak point of being an outsider to his advantage. He claimed that all the accumulated problems people see nowadays are caused by insiders like Hillary Clinton, and only he is able to clean up the Washington swamp and holds the key to making America great again.

The “Trump phenomenon”is not only the outcome of populist movement upheld by the middle and lower classes in the United States, but also a correction to the liberalism that has been prevailing in the country for decades.

The drastic changes and measures taken by President Trump have triggered a strong response both in the United States and abroad, and the impacts arising from them cannot be neglected. Take the “Muslim Ban” for example. On January 30, the Department of Justice of Washington State filed a lawsuit to the Federal District Court, asking for suspension of the executive order, and on February 3, District Court Judge James Robart ruled in support of the request. The US Justice Department immediately appealed to the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit in Washington State,asking the Court to stay the temporary restraining order. On February 9, the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled to maintain the temporary relief and allow US-visa holders from the targeted countries to enter the United States. However, this tug of war over the “Muslim Ban” will not come to an impetuous conclusion. The United States is after all an immigrant country. When the economy is booming, immigrants are welcomed with open arms; when the economy downturns, immigrants are treated with resentment. In order to regain control of the border and strictly control the flow of immigrants, Trump, soon after he took office, began building two high walls: one is a visible wall along the border with Mexico at the cost of the Mexican government, and the other is the discriminatory“Muslim Ban.” Trump’s action to gain benefits for America while harming other countries has resulted in bitter relations with Mexico and other countries.

President Trump is expected to show restraint when he suffers from setbacks since he cannot always act arrogantly and willfully. Domestically, the United States is now in a time of unprecedented social division. The past presidential election has worsened the situation, with a widening gap between the red states and blue states and an increasing fragmentation within the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. President Trump has to face constraints from both political parties. Second, because of their venomous relations, the war of words between Trump and the mass media will not stop. Trump has claimed theNew York Times, NBC, ABC, CBS and CNN that spread “fake news” as enemies of the American people. He frantically tweets because he wants to bypass the media he regards as fake news spreaders, and to have direct communication with his constituents.

According to a US Gallup poll, one week after he took office, Trump’s approval rating dropped to 42 percent while his disapproval rate rose to 51 percent.3“Trump’s Disapproval Rate Surpasses Approval Rate Only 8 Days after Taking Office,” February 1, 2017, http://news.xhby.net/system/2017/02/01/030511325.shtml.In other words, more than half of the American people havea negative attitude toward the Trump administration.

Trump’s National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, who was criticized for making an improper statement in a phone call with the Russian ambassador and thus caused a great uproar in the country and fell under fierce attack from the Democrats, handed in his resignation only 23 days after taking office and became the first high-level official in the Trump administration to step down, constituting a great setback for President Trump.

Externally, it is not an easy job for Trump to honor his campaign words of accomplishing “America first.” The “Muslim Ban” alone has provoked strong opposition both within the United States and around the world. The building of a wall along the border with Mexico and the scrapping of NAFTA have provoked estrangement with Mexico and Canada. At the same time, the trans-Atlantic ties between the United States and Europe are being tested. Trump has criticized the United States’ European allies for taking a free security ride on the US and for their mistakes on immigration control. For example, he talked about NATO being outdated and applauded Brexit. He also criticized German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s immigration policy and claimed it is a mistake for Germany to open the country to refugees and let in an influx of immigrants, causing a souring relationship between the two countries. On the other hand, Trump had wanted to bypass Europe to improve relations with Russia, and this has put the United States’ European allies on alert. The trans-Atlantic alliance after World War II has been based on Russia as a hypothetical foe. Any improvement in relations between the US and Russia is bound to weaken the rationale for NATO’s existence and the US-Europe relationship. In February at the Munich Security Conference, Vice President Mike Pence tried to appease Europe, saying that Washington is the best ally of Europe. However, suspicions remain. In the Munich Security Report 2017 “Post-Truth, Post-West, Post-Order?”Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, warned that the current global security environment is more fragile than at any time since WWII. He said that some fundamental foundations on which the Western society and the free world order have been based are beingshaken, the world is likely to move towards a post-West era, and the rise of non-West forces is exerting a growing influence on the world affairs. Such a phenomenon has made the West nervous, worrying about their loss of leadership.4“Munich Security Report 2017: Post-Truth, Post-West, Post-Order?” https://www.securityconference. de/en/discussion/munich-security-report.

The US Becomes Biggest Variable in Future China-US Relations

The change of roles between China and the United States is a new paradigm in China-US interactions. Since reform and opening-up in the late 1970s, China has undergone fundamental socio-economic changes, causing changes in the political and economic landscape. This used to be an important variable affecting China-US relations. However, today, the United States has become the biggest variable in bilateral relations. Trump has listed some sensitive issues in his China policy, and created many uncertainties for future relations with China. Currently, China and the US have different ways to influence each other and the world: China’s foreign policy is becoming more and more predictable while the US is increasingly becoming the opposite. China is helping other countries build their infrastructure while the US is building walls. China is changing the world by creating opportunities and wealth through cooperation, while the US has adopted a “no” attitude. China is supporting and guiding globalization in a more balanced and more beneficial direction, upholding free trade and promoting a community of shared future with win-win cooperation, while the US opposes globalization, immigration and free trade, prioritizes“America first” and “make America great again” through protectionism and economic nationalism.

Looking back on the development of bilateral relations since the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and the United States over the past four decades, it can be seen that bilateral relations are usually at low ebb whenever there is a change in government in the United States.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump held China-US Presidents’ Meeting at the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida on April 6, 2017. The two sides agreed to push forward the bilateral relations from a new starting point so as to better benefit the people of both countries and the world.

During their presidential campaigns, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush criticized China without exception and the bilateral relations were tense and turbulent at the beginning of their presidencies. It took more than a year to get China-US ties repaired during the Reagan administration. It took about two years to put the relations back on track during the Clinton administration. The September 11 attacks occurred not long after George W. Bush took office, and cooperation with China against terrorism shortened the time needed for the recovery of the bilateral relations. After Barack Obama took office in 2009, bilateral relations saw a smooth transition. However, that did not last long as Washington decided to sell arms to Taiwan in 2010. Yet, whenall the above-mentioned presidents left office, the overall relationship between China and the United States showed an upward trend: the Reagan administration and the Chinese government issued the August 17 Joint Communiqué, reaffirming the One-China policy and making a solemn commitment on the issue of arms sale to Taiwan.5The United States government states in August 17 Joint Communiqué that it does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, that its arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative or in quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the US and China, and that it intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution.In the latter part of the Clinton administration, China and the US even talked about the establishment of strategic partnership. In the last year of his tenure, George W. Bush came to Beijing for the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympic Games, and had a pleasant time in China. Before Barack Obama left office, he spoke highly of China-US relations and overall relations were quite good. President Obama and President Xi Jinping reached an important consensus on building a new-type major-country relationship based on no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation.

Currently, China and the US have different ways to influence each other and the world: China’s foreign policy is becoming more predictable while the US is increasingly becoming the opposite.

It is hard to predict whether the above historical experience can be applied to the Trump era. As a distinctive “atypical president,” Trump intends to carry out American foreign policy with unorthodox ideas, free from conventional wisdom. He tends to create uncertainties, and makes full use of these uncertainties to keep America in an advantageous position. This strategy can be called his “enigmatic strategy.”

Judging the performance of the Trump administration during its first month in office, there are reasons for feeling relieved and reasons to worry. In general, the bilateral relations between China and the United States are in a difficult running-in period. It is encouraging to note that the two sideshave maintained close communication and frequent high-level interactions. This will help the new US government readjust its position on major issues and will have positive impact on the development of bilateral relations. In particular, the two sides need to properly handle, among other things, the issues concerning Taiwan, their economic and trade relations, the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula.

The Taiwan issue

On February 10, President Xi Jinping talked with President Trump by phone. Two important messages were delivered. First, the phone call between the two presidents showed that President Trump was back to supporting the One-China policy, and the difference between the two countries on the Taiwan issue has made a soft landing. President Trump’s phone talk with Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the island’s authorities, in December 2016, broke the taboo on direct talks with the island’s leader that was the foundation for China and the United States to establish their diplomatic relations. After their phone conversation Trump had claimed that the United States would not be restrained by the One-China policy, and that the One-China policy was negotiable, thus triggering widespread concern in the United States and abroad, and creating worries that the Trump administration intended to use Taiwan to blackmail China. At present, the momentum for Taiwan’s “independence” has grown rampant, and actions taken by Trump might stimulate the forces seeking Taiwan’s “independence”to take further reckless moves.

The One-China principle, which has long been enshrined in the three joint communiqués between the two countries, serves as the political foundation for China-US relations. Since the two countries established diplomatic ties, successive US administrations have upheld the One-China policy, which is the prerequisite for sustainable development of China-US relations. The One-China policy has also become an integral part of the norms of international relations. On October 25, 1971, the 26th Session of the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution to restore all the legitimaterights of the People’s Republic of China in the United Nations. Any attempt to practice brinkmanship on the Taiwan issue is extremely dangerous, and China will never sit idly by. In his phone conversation with President Xi Jinping, Trump stressed that he fully understood the great importance of the US upholding the One-China policy, and he assured the Chinese President that his administration would adhere to the One-China policy. President Xi Jinping expressed his appreciation and pointed out that the One-China policy is the political foundation for bilateral relations.6“Xi Jinping Holds Telephone Talks with President Donald Trump of US,” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, February 10, 2017, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/wshd_665389/t1438306.shtml.To be sure, this achievement has been won through struggles. On the Taiwan issue, Trump has returned to the position upheld by previous administrations, and this removes a big obstacle to the future development of China-US relations. The year 2017 coincides with the 45th anniversary of the signing of the Shanghai Communiqué, and it is an important year to gain new insights while recalling past experience.

Second, the two sides reached an important consensus on the establishment of a cooperative partnership. President Xi Jinping pointed out that in the face of the current complicated world situation and endless challenges, China and the United States find there is increasing necessity and pressing urgency to strengthen their cooperation. The developments of both countries supplement and promote each other so that China and the US are able to form a good partnership for cooperation. A sound China-US relationship is in the fundamental interests of the two peoples. Being two major countries in the world, China and the US should shoulder their responsibilities. President Trump said that the development of USChina relations has won extensive support from the American people. And he believes that both countries, as cooperative partners, should make joint efforts to promote bilateral relations to a historic new level. He said the United States is committed to strengthening mutually beneficial cooperation with China in economic, trade and investment fields and in world affairs.

President Trump’s words have been taken as a continuation and deepened commitment of what he wrote in a letter delivered to President Xi Jinping on February 8, in which he extended festive greetings to the Chinese people on the occasion of the Chinese Lantern Festival and the Chinese Lunar New Year, and expressed the hope they could work together to promote a beneficial and constructive China-US relations. On November 14, 2016, when President Xi Jinping talked with Trump on the phone, he said that facts have proved that cooperation is the only correct choice for China and the United States. Currently, there are important opportunities and great potential for bilateral cooperation, so that the two sides should step up their coordination, promote respective economic development and global economic growth, and expand exchanges and cooperation in various fields to the betterment of the two peoples, so as to push forward a sound development of relations between China and the United States. President Trump said that the United States and China can achieve mutual benefits and win-win cooperation. He expressed his willingness to make joint efforts to strengthen bilateral cooperation, and said he believed that China-US relationship will witness better development.7“Xi Jinping Holds Telephone Talks with US President-elect Donald Trump,” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, November 14, 2016, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1415809.shtml.Therefore, it is obvious that the leaders of China and the US have maintained their close communication, and both of them have expressed their willingness to strengthen cooperation. This makes people confident and full of expectations for the future of bilateral relations.

Economic and trade issues

Trump threatened to list China as a “currency manipulator,” and impose high tariffs on Chinese goods so as to benefit the United States in its efforts to reduce its trade deficit, promote economic growth and create jobs. Since the two countries established their diplomatic ties, the fast-growing economic and trade relations have served as “ballast” and“propeller” for bilateral relations. As China and the United States arerespectively the second largest and largest economies in the world, the two countries shoulder important responsibilities to jointly promote the stable development of the world economy. If the United States begins a trade war with China, it will inevitably hurt various parties in the global supply chain, including American enterprises. The United States has no greater endurance than China in this respect. China’s Ministry of Commerce responded to Washington’s threats by saying that a trade war should not be an option; however, China does not fear it.8“Trade War Not an Option but China Does Not Fear: Chinese Commerce Ministry,” Huanqiu, February 22, 2017, http://finance.huanqiu.com/caigc/2017-02/10177615.html.In fact, the basic reason for the trade imbalance lies in the United States’ long-term and obsolete policy of export controls against China. Instead of launching a trade war, it would be better for the United States to remove its controls on exports of hightech products to China. In addition, Trump also faces an unavoidable dilemma: He intends to implement large-scale tax cuts, while at the same time launching large-scale infrastructure building. Where will the money come from? If the United States could change its mindset and expand its cooperation with China, the two countries could work together to accomplish great undertakings which will be in the fundamental interests of the two peoples.

If the United States could change its mindset and expand its cooperation with China, the two countries could work together to accomplish great undertakings which will be in the fundamental interests of the two peoples.

The South China Sea issue

Certain improper remarks made by the Trump administration cannot but make people worry about possibility of a collision between China and the United States in the South China Sea. In his Secretary of State Senate confirmation hearing, Rex Tillerson threatened to stop China from approaching the South China Sea islands, saying that it is illegalfor China to build on South China Sea islands. White House spokesman Sean Spicer, at his first press conference, claimed that the United States would not allow China to take over the South China Sea, and the United States would defend its international interests in the South China Sea. Coveting the South China Sea, the United States might increase military spending and strengthen its navy building, and probably would increase military deployment in the West Pacific region. China respects freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea by other countries according to international law. However, China is resolutely opposed to any arbitrary actions that deliberately harms China’s sovereignty and territorial security. Starting in the second half of 2016, there has been a substantial improvement in the relations between China and Southeast Asian countries, and the South China Sea issue is cooling down. The parties concerned have agreed to settle the South China Sea disputes through a “dual-track approach,” that is, China and the parties directly related will settle the disputes peacefully through consultation and negotiation, and at the same time, China and the ASEAN countries will work together to maintain peace and stability in the region. Any outsiders ought to respect this consensus reached by regional countries, and refrain from muddying the waters. If outsiders insist on making trouble in the South China Sea, they will find themselves isolated with self-destructed credibility.

The Korean Peninsula issue

The evolving situation on the Korean Peninsula has kept testing China-US relations. In 2016, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea unprecedentedly carried out two nuclear tests, followed by the United Nations Security Council’s adoption of two resolutions that condemned the DPRK’s nuclear and missile tests and called for a settlement of the North Korean nuclear issue through negotiations. On February 12, 2017, the DPRK claimed it had successfully launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile. According to Korean Central News Agency, the DPRK successfully launched a Pukguksong-2 ground-to-ground intermediate-range strategicballistic missile and its top leader, Kim Jong-un, supervised the test and expressed satisfaction over the country’s possession of another strong offensive weapon. The actions taken by the DPRK have again worsened the situation in Northeast Asia. The Trump administration is evaluating the United States’ DPRK policy and is inclined to drop the “strategic patience”adopted by the Obama administration. The new strategy Trump plans to take will undergo a trial process. The United States and the Republic of Korea conducted two unprecedented military exercises beginning in mid-March, with drills of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system for the first time. This will further escalate tensions on the Peninsula. Fearing that there might be an unexpected event blocking the THAAD deployment, the United States and the Republic of Korea used the drills as a cover to move the THAAD system into the ROK and accelerate its deployment.

The United States and the Republic of Korea have responded to the DPRK nuclear threats with the THAAD anti-missile system. Such an erroneous approach will surely damage strategic stability in the region. Some people have tried to outsource to China the responsibility of resolving the DPRK nuclear issue, but they are obviously shirking their own responsibilities. As the Foreign Ministry spokesperson of China explicitly pointed out, the root of the DPRK nuclear and missile issue lies in the differences between the DPRK and the US and between the DPRK and the ROK.9“Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang’s Regular Press Conference on February 13, 2017,”Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, February 13, 2017, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/ s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1438035.shtml.This statement identifies the roots of the problem and points clearly to the crux of the DPRK nuclear issue. China, a neighbor of the two Koreas, is implementing fully and completely the relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and engages in active persuasion and promotion of negotiations, and is committed to breaking up the negative circle concerning the Korean Peninsula problem. Taking into full consideration the concerns of the parties and the actual situation on the Peninsula, Chinahas proposed a “dual-track” settlement by which denuclearization on the Peninsula goes parallel with a transition from armistice to peace, which would facilitate the resumption of the Six-Party Talks. This proposal by China will stand the test of time.

In short, no country can go it alone at a time of multi-polarization and globalization. Sailing forward in the same boat is the only choice. China-US relations are by no means a small boat which can be toppled easily. Standing at a new historic starting point, China and the United States have witnessed continuous and increasing cooperation. The two countries have engaged in constructive and mutually beneficial coordination in anti-terrorism since the September 11 terrorist attacks, maintained global financial stability, and promoted global economic recovery and growth following the financial crisis. At the same time, the two countries need to enhance their mutual trust, manage, control and resolve their differences and contradictions in a meticulous way.

Some people have tried to outsource to China the responsibility of resolving the DPRK nuclear issue, but they are obviously shirking their own responsibilities. The root lies in the differences between the DPRK and the US and between the DPRK and the ROK.

China’s Diplomatic Options

The current international order is in a process of being reshaped, global governance has a long way to go, and the world is confronted with all kinds of challenges. Against this backdrop, China-US cooperation is indispensable. China has actively created conditions conducive to an early meeting between the leaders of the two countries, in order to fine-tune the future direction of bilateral relations through face-to-face exchanges, enhance understanding, expand consensus, strengthen cooperation and manage differences. Although the United States is a variable affecting China-US relations, China is by no means a passive respondent; it also hasthe responsibility to actively shape the bilateral relationship.

Constructing a strategic basis for China-US relations in the new period.What is the strategic basis for China-US relations today? What is the new driving force for the relations? China-US relations have never been simply a bilateral relationship, but was established and developed along with evolving historical backgrounds. The reason for China and the US to approach each other and establish diplomatic relations in the 1970s was the changing strategic environment at that time, that is, the Soviet Union was viewed as posing a common threat to both China and the US. To put it another way, their joint opposition to Soviet hegemonism constituted the driving force for improving China-US relations. After the end of the Cold War, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, this strategic basis dissolved, and China-US relations drifted for some time. The increased anti-terrorism cooperation after the September 11 terrorist attacks and strengthened economic cooperation after the financial crisis served as the driving force for the development of bilateral relations. Over the past four decades since the establishment of diplomatic relations, although there have been twists and turns, China-US relations have been growing overall. This shows that the bilateral relationship is mutually beneficial in nature. The strategic basis for China-US relations in the new century needs to transform from “common opposition” against some common enemy to“joint construction” of a win-win world. The population of China and the United States combined accounts for nearly one quarter of the world’s population, the economic output of the two countries exceeds one-third of the world’s total, and the bilateral trade accounts for one-fifth. Significant and in-depth changes are taking place in China-US relations, which will determine the evolution of international architecture in the 21st century. The realization of the Chinese Dream needs the stable development of China-US relations, so too does making America great again. Both visions include convergence on a wide range of interests, and win-win cooperation serves as the core. This is the new strategic basis and driving force for China-US relations.

Taking proactive moves to set up an international image of open and cooperative China.China’s international image will be shaped by others and by itself. China is now carrying out an all-round and in-depth reform, and the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party will be held soon. China’s appearance on the world arena has attracted international attention. In the context of rising anti-globalization and protectionism, President Xi Jinping has elaborated on China’s perspectives as well as positions on the current world order, globalization and free trade on various international occasions. The G20 Summit in 2016, hosted by China, achieved fruitful results.

Although the United States is a variable affecting China-US relations, China is by no means a passive respondent; it also has the responsibility to actively shape the bilateral relationship.

The Chinese solutions contributed greatly to its success. At the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Lima in 2016, President Xi pointed out that China would not shut the door to the world, but rather open its door wider. In 2017, in speeches made in Davos and at the UN office in Geneva, Xi highlighted China’s openness and inclusiveness, its opposition to protectionism, and its active role in helping guide economic globalization in a more inclusive and mutually beneficial direction when addressing the world’s concern on economic globalization. In Geneva, President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech themed “Work Together to Build a Community of Shared Future for Mankind,” elaborating on the concept of a community of shared future. His remarks won worldwide praise and increased the confidence of the international community that future uncertainties can be overcome. Furthermore, the concept of building “a human community with shared destiny” was incorporated into a UN resolution for the first time. All these efforts have contributed to the reshaping of China’s international image and the promotion of Chinese discourse in the world. What is closely related to this is that the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative has become a catalyst for economic globalization. In May, China will host the Belt andRoad Forum for International Cooperation. Through this forum China’s open and cooperative mind will be further demonstrated and the wide space of mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation will be explored. In September, China will host the BRICS Summit to enhance cooperation among BRICS countries with the “BRICS+” model, expanding its circle of friends and strengthening the position and role of emerging economies in global governance.

Upgrading amicable relations between China and neighboring countries.The neighboring area is China’s primary focus for win-win cooperation. The interests of China and its neighbors converge in the region. China needs to be more flexible and live in harmony with its neighbors, expanding cooperation, enhancing mutual trust and dispelling misgivings. China has put forward a series of proposals, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism. All this has increased the transparency of China’s policies as well as the predictability of China’s future diplomatic strategy, thus winning strong support and a positive response from neighboring countries. China plays a pivotal role in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, which was initiated by the 10 ASEAN countries and joined by 16 states including China. The RCEP is more in line with the integration trend in the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, China is working to advance a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), build a broader and more distinct regional integration framework for mutual benefits and win-win cooperation, and pursue open and inclusive regionalism with the purpose of reducing future uncertainties in the region.

Pursuing trilateral relations among China, the United States and Russia featuring benign interactions.Since President Trump came to power, Washington has had frequent interactions with Russia, showing its increased desire to improve relations. What impact will the evolving US-Russia relations have on China? What are the prospects for China-US-Russia trilateral relations? Even if US-Russia relations improved, thestructural problems underlying the relationship would not be removed easily. Economically the bilateral trade volume is only US$20 billion, which is hardly attractive to the United States. In the security field, while the two countries have the need to cooperate on anti-terrorism efforts in the Middle East, their competition on issues concerning NATO’s eastward expansion, Ukraine, deployment of the THAAD anti-missile system, cyber warfare and other areas still exist. European countries are worried that the United States will seek to strike a deal on the Ukrainian issue at the cost of European security. On January 28, President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin talked by phone. The two sides reached consensus on improving US-Russia relations, and agreed to strengthen cooperation and repair bilateral ties. However, there was no mention of lifting the sanctions, which is Russia’s main concern, and Russia has found it difficult to conceal its disappointment. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has gone all out to contain Russia and squeeze its strategic space. President Putin’s strong backlash against the United States was aimed at winning equal treatment and respect from the US. However, Washington, with its condescending attitude to Russia and with a strong anti-Russian forces at home, will not forgive any threats from Moscow. At the time of power transition in the United States, the Obama administration declared sanctions against Russia for its interference in the US election. This shows that the “Russian factor” has become part of the infighting in American politics.

Today’s trilateral relations among China, the United States and Russia are completely different from that of the Cold War era. Great changes have taken place in China-Russia relations, which has shown a strong endogenous dynamic with high-level particularity. Although the two countries are not in an alliance, the bonds are stronger than an alliance. Russia will not give up its amicable ties with China in exchange for the United States’ favor. Moreover, Russia, as a nation with great pride, will not allow itself to be any country’s bargaining chip. China-US relations have been developing steadily and interdependencebetween the two countries is growing. China would be happy to see US-Russia relations improving, as it would help decrease the tensions in international relations. To sum up, the trilateral relations among China, the United States and Russia in the 21st century are by no means a mutually damaging zero-sum game, but should be a new type of trilateral relationship with positive interactions.

Certain readjustments made by the Trump administration in the United States’ security strategy do not mean Washington’s geopolitical retreat. There is no vacuum at all, and “l(fā)eading the world” has always been a fictional myth.

Demonstrating strategic patience and restraint and reinforcing crisis management mechanisms.At present some people believe that the United States is tired of its leadership role, and therefore it is withdrawing from world affairs, which would leave the world in chaos without a leader. They suggest that China should fill the vacuum left by the Trump administration’s “strategic contraction.” However, the current international situation is complicated. Certain readjustments made by the Trump administration in the United States’ security strategy do not mean Washington’s geopolitical retreat. There is no vacuum at all, and“l(fā)eading the world” has always been a fictional myth. Surely, China ought to shoulder responsibilities commensurate with its own strength, engage more proactively in managing the divergences that exist with the United States, and prevent China-US relations from sliding into the orbit of strategic confrontation. In recent years, China-US relations have, from time to time, been disturbed by accidents which have taught a profound lesson. It is of increasing importance to strengthen control and management of unplanned incidents to ensure a smooth development of bilateral relations. This requires both parties to establish a communication mechanism and risk-prevention rules. China and the United States have set up a notification mechanism on major military actions and a code of conduct for unplanned sea and air encounters.In the future, similar arrangements should be expanded to the fields of economy, trade, cyber security, outer space, polar affairs and regional security, among others. And efforts should be made to improve building the early warning and crisis management mechanisms to ensure smooth development of China-US relations.

Conclusion

At the beginning of his presidency, Trump has set the objective of “making America great again” as his priority; he has taken actions that have caused a lot of concern and uncertainty, creating a “Trump shock” that has been felt both at home and abroad. A big change in strategy will certainly spur the regrouping and reorganization of other forces in the world.

Over the next four years, the complex China-US relations will be at a historic intersection. Since Trump came to office, the bilateral ties have entered a complicated and sensitive period. President Trump’s reiteration of his adherence to the One-China policy which he once claimed was negotiable indicates that his China policy is malleable. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain. China-US relations are by no means problemfree. The future of bilateral relations depends not just on the United States but also on China. With its rising strength, China has increasing capability to shape its relations with the United States. The historical experience since the establishment of diplomatic relations has proved that cooperation widens the prospects for bilateral relations while confrontation narrows them. In order to avoid recurrence of the lose-lose tragedy of a confrontation between great powers, China and the United States should go beyond history and form a constructive partnership of cooperation, making joint efforts to build a community of shared future for all mankind. This is exactly what President Xi Jinping meant when he pointed out that to continuously improve China-US relations is a duty that must be shouldered by the two major countries.

Ruan Zongze is Executive Vice President and Senior Research Fellow of China Institute of International Studies (CIIS).