企業(yè)如何應對高通脹

文/維賈伊·戈文達拉揚等 譯/薛洪君

While consumers generally dislike inflation because it erodes the purchasing power of their income, businesses desire a steady level of inflation because investments made in today’s prices yield higher profits and returns in the future.Governments also like low and steady inflation.With inflation, government’s long-term borrowing needs to be repaid at a lower real cost, and a nation’s real income keeps increasing as long as employment remains high and the improvement in worker productivity exceeds their wage enhancements.Prices of assets such as houses and equities1equities（股息不定的）普通股，股票。keep rising, attracting investors into the economy.The idea is that the economy keeps growing and everyone benefits.

消費者通常都不喜歡通貨膨脹，因為它讓你收入的購買力縮水；而企業(yè)會希求持續(xù)通脹，原因是以今天的價格做投資，未來能產生更高的利潤和收益。政府也樂見小幅平穩(wěn)的通貨膨脹，此種現象下，政府的長期借債只需以更低的實際成本償還，同時只要保持高就業(yè)率且工人生產能力的提高超過工資增長，國家的實際收入就會持續(xù)增加。房產和股票等資產的價格保持上漲，吸引投資者參與經濟活動。道理就是經濟不斷增長，人人都從中獲益。

Why inflation is so high right now

為何當前通脹如此之高

2盡管對貨品和服務的需求已達到甚或超過疫情前的水平，供給卻沒有同步趕上。新冠肺炎相關供應鏈上的問題依舊存在，眾多貨物積滯在船上或港口。航運、貨運和保險費用躥升為疫情前多倍水平。很多工廠依然停業(yè)或尚未恢復運營。工資持續(xù)上漲，企業(yè)仍難以招募到足夠的人才。到處缺少貨車司機，使得生產鏈受阻。

2Despite demand for goods and services reaching or even exceeding prepandemic levels, supply hasn’t caught up.Covid-related supply chain issues persist, with many goods remaining stuck in ships or ports.Shipping, freight,and insurance rates have skyrocketed2skyrocket（數量、價格、費用等）猛漲。to multiple times their pre-pandemic levels.Many factories remain closed or have not resumed operations.Wages keep rising, and companies are still struggling to hire enough talent.A widespread shortage of truck drivers is affecting production chains.

The risks of protectionism

3One likely outcome of these developments is that countries could turn protectionist, reversing decades of trade and specialization progress.For example, over the last 40 years or so, manufacturing moved away from the U.S.significantly.Meanwhile, California’s Silicon Valley became the global leader in new digital businesses ideas, and China’s Shenzhen region created an ecosystem for manufacturing electronic products.In addition,Brazil became the largest exporter of beef,China of steel, Canada of aluminium,Germany of cars, and the U.S.of radios and TVs and refined petroleum.

貿易保護主義的風險

3上述發(fā)展的一個可能的后果是，各國會走向貿易保護主義，使數十年間在貿易和生產專業(yè)化上取得的進步發(fā)生逆轉。例如，過去大約40年中，制造業(yè)大舉遷出美國。在此期間，加利福尼亞硅谷成為全球新數字化商業(yè)理念的領導者，中國深圳地區(qū)則建成了電子產品制造生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。此外，巴西的牛肉出口成為世界之最，中國的鋼鐵、加拿大的鋁、德國的汽車以及美國的無線電、電視和精煉石油等也都如此。

4換句話說，每個地區(qū)都開始專精生產自己具備相對優(yōu)勢或規(guī)模效應的商品。商品交叉往來于全球各地，經歷各個不同的生產階段，再交付到消費者手中。這種專業(yè)化生產與貿易降低了商品和服務的價格，使創(chuàng)新加速。只需想想新買的大液晶屏電視機的價格，你或許就會發(fā)現，它要比在1990年代買一臺小黑白電視通脹調整后的價格還低。這就是專精生產和全球貿易良性運行的效果。各國專精生產幾項產品，其余的經由通商貿易獲得，而不勉強去追求自給自足，各國境況反而更好。

4In other words, each region started specializing in producing goods in which it had comparative advantage or economies of scale.Goods crisscrossed3crisscross在……上交叉往來。the globe at various production stages before reaching customers.This specialization and trade lowered prices of goods and services and accelerated innovation.Just consider the price you recently paid for a large-screen LCD TV.You might find it to be lower than the inflation-adjusted price you paid for a small black-and-white TV in the 1990s.This was the outcome of wellfunctioning specialization and global trade.Countries are better off4better off處境更好的。specializing in a few things and trading the rest,instead of trying to be self-sufficient.

5Now there is a real danger that at least some of that progress could be lost or reversed, forever.Countries may revert to more protectionist policies and attempt to become more self-reliant.Imagine a scenario where each country attempts to have its own steel mills, produces its own cars, runs its own airlines,and has its own oilfields and refineries5refinery精制廠；提煉廠。.This would make goods and services more expensive.

5而今切實存在的危險就是，至少上述某些進步會喪失或倒退，不復再現。各國可能會重返更嚴重的貿易保護主義政策，嘗試更加自力更生。想象一下：各國都試圖建立自家的鋼鐵廠，生產自己的汽車，運營本國航空線，自搞油田和煉油廠。這會讓商品和服務更昂貴。

What companies should do about inflation

6We don’t think inflation will be coming down anytime soon.Here are seven new strategies for companies to combat longer-lasting inflation:

企業(yè)針對通脹應如何行動

6我們認為通貨膨脹不會在短時間內減緩。以下是企業(yè)可用以對付更長期通脹的七條新策略：

7首要的一點是，悉知你整個價值鏈條及其中易受供應鏈危機沖擊的環(huán)節(jié)。也就是說，除了解你的直接供應商外——還要搞清你供應商背后的供應商，諸如此類。即使是一個不起眼的子部件，也會交叉往返于全球，經歷各個不同的制造階段。評估每一階段的供應中斷風險，研究可替代貨源，并保持庫存充足。保持精簡的準時制庫存的時代已經過去了。

7First and foremost, understand your entire value chain and its exposure to supply chain shocks.In other words, go beyond learning about just your immediate supplier—figure out the supplier behind your supplier, and so on.Even a minor subcomponent crisscrosses the world at various manufacturing stages.Assess the risk of disruption at each stage, develop alternative sources of supply, and keep sufficient inventory.Those days of keeping lean, just-in-time inventories are gone.

8Understand your capital structure:your mix of equity shares, preferred shares, bank loans, short-term credit,supplier credit, and convertible debt.See which ones need to be repaid and when, which are affected by interest rate increases, and which could bring your business down if you default.Financial plans that worked during the last decade may be too risky for the coming years.Restructure your loans, obtain new lines of credit6line of credit貸放（或賒購）最高限額。, and maintain enough cushion.

8弄清你的資本結構：即權益股、優(yōu)先股、銀行貸款、短期信貸、供方信貸和可轉換債券的成分比例。注意有哪些需要償還和何時償還，哪些受利率升高的影響，還有哪種一旦違約會把你的生意搞垮。過去十年行之有效的金融計劃，如果未來幾年繼續(xù)沿用，可能風險過高。調整貸款結構，獲取新的信貸額度，保有足夠的儲備金。

9要格外注意全球發(fā)展、國家同盟的重新調整和國際供應商政策的變化。這些方面不可再視作理所當然。你不能指望各國都采取合乎其長遠經濟利益的理性舉措。政治、國際壓力和民族狂熱都可能沖昏理性經濟思考，導致商業(yè)政策迅速轉變。

9Pay extra attention to global developments, realignment of countries’ alliances, and changing policies of international suppliers.These factors can no longer be taken for granted.You can’t expect that countries will act rationally in their longterm economic interests.Politics, international pressures, and national fervor could dominate rational economic thinking, leading to rapid changes in business policies.

10失去核心員工意味著數月喪失生產能力，需另花精力物色和訓練接替者。因此，與員工時常溝通尤其重要，至少要知曉他們變動工作的打算。在顧及員工個人需求方面宜更靈活，比如允許其居家工作，這或能提升他們的生產率。

10Losing a key employee means months of lost productivity and expenditure of additional efforts to find and train a replacement.Consequently, it’s especially important to be in constant communication with employees and at least be aware of their plans for switching jobs.Be more flexible in accommodating their personal needs, such as letting them work from home, which may boost employee productivity.

11The luxury of pursuing nonremunerative7nonremunerative不合算的，無償的。ideas is now gone.It’s time to rationalize activities, customers, businesses, brands, segments, suppliers,manufacturing sites, and product lines,because short-term survival takes precedence over8take precedence over優(yōu)于；（地位或程度上）高于。long-term growth.Go back to the drawing board9back to the drawing board（失敗后）重起爐灶，從頭再來。to identify core areas and focus on those that provide the best returns for finite resources while holding the most promise for future.

11不能再奢望去追逐沒有經濟回報的目標?，F在是應該合理規(guī)劃活動、客戶、業(yè)務、品牌、細分市場、供應商、生產場地和產品線的時候了，因為近期生存總要優(yōu)先于長期增長。從頭再來，確定核心領域，專注于以有限資源獲得最佳收益且最具前景的領域。

12這種時期的自然傾向是一味裁減，責成全面削降工資、開支和人員總數。此類舉措的顯見后果是士氣低落和更多有才能的員工離開。也可能會忍不住去削減諸如研發(fā)、職工培訓和廣告等前瞻性支出。我們強烈建議不要采取這么魯莽的措施。相反，進行更精細的剖解分析。設計新的評分卡，按照保留優(yōu)先次序對活動和業(yè)務種類進行排序。評分卡必須考量當前組織架構的重點，同時為增長與未來贏利能力預留空間。譬如它必須要包括：

?基于資產當前市場價值而非歷史價值的投資收益

12A natural tendency during these times is to apply a universal axe and order an across-the-board10acrossthe-board包括一切的，全面的。cut of salaries, expenditures, and headcount11headcount（一組織中的）總人數。.An obvious outcome of such actions is low morale and further attrition of talented employees.It may also be tempting to start cutting forward-looking expenditures like R&D12R&D =research and development 研究與開發(fā)，研發(fā)。, employee training,and advertising.We strongly advise against such blunt actions.Instead, use a finer scalpel.Design a new scorecard to rank-order activities and business lines in terms of retention priorities.The scorecard must consider the current organizational priorities while leaving room for growth and future profitability.For example, it must include:

? Return on investment based on the current market values of assets, instead of historical values

? The cash operating cycle—that is,the time it takes between investing cash in inventory to recovering cash from the customer

? Risks and uncertainties, from supply to logistics to customers’ ability to pay

? Growth, a combination of total addressable market and achievable market share

?現金循環(huán)周期——即從現款購進存貨到從客戶手中收回現金所需的時間

?從供應到物流到客戶支付能力所涉及的風險和不確定性

?增長，即對可觸達市場容量和可實現市場占比進行的綜合衡量

13There’s no sugar-coating13sugar-coat使（困難或討厭的事）變得易于接受（或有吸引力、令人愉快等） ；美化，粉飾。the fact that inflationary pressures and supply chain issues are real and here to stay14be here to stay〈口〉得到公眾的承認；被普遍接受，成為習尚。.It’s important to develop an in-depth understanding of these problems and create a game plan to address these rapidly evolving challenges.■

13毋庸諱言，通貨膨脹壓力和供應鏈問題切實存在且已被普遍接受。當務之急是形成對這些問題的深入認識，并擬訂行動方案應對此類急速演變的挑戰(zhàn)。 □