INTERNATIONAL ORDER AND CHINA’S DIPLOMACY

SU GE

Chairman of China National Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation and former President of China Institute of International Studies

The world has undergone dramatic international developments in the past year, and is at a crucial stage in the evolving international landscape. However, peace, development,and win-win cooperation remain the unstoppable trends of our times. Uncertainties continue to grow however, and new problems and challenges are constantly arising. Major-power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics has taken stock of our achievements, broken new ground, and begun a new historic journey.

International Turbulence and Dramatic Changes

The United States domestic and international policies frequently encountered turbulence in 2017. Domestically, the decision-making process of the Trump administration has been in disorder, many government positions remained unfilled, and it has faced obstacles posed by the opposition. Deep social divisions have been evident over many issues including medical reform,tax cuts, arms control, immigration, and employment, etc. Meanwhile, with the historical inertia of Cold War opposition and many contradictions in their geopolitical games, it is proving hard for the United States and Russia to break the deadlock in their relations, and “Russiagate” is still fermenting. Internationally, guided by Trump’s “America First”policy, the United States has been promoting unilateralism and trade protectionism, and willfully withdrawn from many international deals agreed by the previous administration. The US has speeded up the adjustment of what is now its “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, adding further uncertainty to the region. And at the year end, the US issued its National Security Strategy Report, which views China and Russia as “strategic competitors”, and claims that China and Russia are two “revisionist powers”intending to erode the United States security and prosperity, while also presenting the need to cooperate with the two countries.

Despite some easing, the trend of turbulence in Europe has not subsided. European countries still face challenges from populism, terrorist attacks and refugee issues, and the European integration process has been impaired by the severe difficulties presented by Brexit, which still loom large. The United Kingdom and the European Union finally achieved initial results in their negotiations at the end of year. In the next stage of Brexit negotiations in 2018, discussions will continue on issues including the transition period, and UK-EU relations. And it is expected that trade and security issues will be “hard nuts to crack”.Despite the victory of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the German elections, Angela Merkel faces great difficulties in securing a fourth term as chancellor, further undermining confidence within the European Union. In addition, the policies of the Trump administration mean the European Union and the United States face widened contradictions, and their divergences have become more apparent in global governance issues such as trade and climate change.

The situation on the Korean Peninsula has become increasingly complex and sensitive, with the nuclear weapons program of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea becoming increasingly acute. Pyongyang continuously expedited its nuclear missile development and intercontinental ballistic missile tests. Meanwhile, the drills between the United States and Japan and the United States and the Republic of Korea continued, intensifying “the extreme pressure”, and unilateral sanctions were forcefully implemented. In September,the DPRK carried out its sixth nuclear test and detonated a hydrogen bomb.On November 20, Trump declared he was placing the DPRK back on the list of “state sponsors of terrorism”. On November 29, the DPRK claimed the successful launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States. At the beginning of December, the United States and the Republic of Korea held their “Vigilant Ace” joint military exercises. China consistently upheld the objective of denuclearization in the Peninsula, and called for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula to be maintained through dialogue and negotiation. China also advocated and promoted the “suspension for suspension” proposal and“dual-track” approach for peace talks.On December 22, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2397, imposing more severe sanctions on the DPRK.

In the Middle East, national, religious and geopolitical contradictions continued to be intertwined, and the regional situation was embroiled in old and new turbulences. The United States and Russia competed fiercely in the Middle East. Iran drew closer to Russia, while its relations with the United States further deteriorated; the US-Saudi Arabia alliance strengthened, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud broke with tradition to appoint a new Crown Prince, and an anti-corruption campaign impacted on the political circle. The diplomatic crisis over Qatar disrupted the Middle East; the independence referendum in the Kurdish region in Iraq created regional political security uncertainty; and the situation in Syria remained complex and changeable.On December 6, Trump declared that the United States recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. On December 12,the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution stating that any decision or action claiming to change status of Jerusalem was “ineffective”,with 128 voting in favor, 9 against, and 35 abstentions.

In Africa, political unrest broke out in Zimbabwe, and Robert Mugabe eventually resigned as president; violence occurred in the Kenyan election,and President Uhuru Kenyatta was reelected for a second term in office. In South Africa, President Jaacob Zuma significantly changed his cabinet, while the opposition party’s introduction of a no-confidence vote in Parliament failed,the ruling position of the African National Congress party was seemingly shaken. In Latin America, Brazilian President Michel Temer was sued, and the political crisis worsened. US-Venezuela relations further deteriorated.

Variables and Invariables, and Trends in the International Landscape

Currently, the international system is at a stage of significant transformation and profound reform, with some fundamental and momentous changes underway.

First, the international landscape is undergoing rebalancing, reform and adjustment, with the “rise of the East and the relative decline of the West”resetting the international balance of power and promoting reform and adjustments. In the past centuries, Europe and the United States have been the world’s center of gravity, dominating international political affairs. But the current situations in the United States and Europe cannot compare with the past;major “turbulence” has appeared in the sole superpower, the United States, and in the world’s “metropolis”, Europe. The momentum of East Asian economic integration is increasing, and the importance of the Asia-Pacific region continues to grow. With the center of gravity of international relations shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific, it is natural for the United States and Europe to experience frustration and anxiety, and“unipolar” and “multipolar” contentions have appeared and even intensified to some degrees.

Second, major changes are occurring in the trend of economic globalization and regional integration. The global financial crisis accelerated the rise of emerging economies, and this was a watershed moment in the process of globalization. As for global GDP, the trend is now obvious with the contribution of emerging countries rising while that of the traditional Western powers is declining. The rise of developing countries and emerging economies, has led to the international political and economic balance of power transitioning from quantitative to qualitative, which is bringing major changes to the global investment and trade landscape, as well as the mode of economic development.

Third, groundbreaking progress has been achieved in reforming the international governance system. The disadvantages in the traditional international economic system exposed by the global financial crisis, triggered tremendous changes and breakthroughs, first in the economic and financial fields, which led to the international economic governance system undergoing profound transformation and entering a transition period. Ever since the establishment of the G20, the consensus has been for policies to consistently promote globalization and economic integration, boost trade and investment growth, and fight against trade and investment protectionism.

Fourth, the international community is faced with severe challenges and arduous tasks resulting from a peace deficit, development deficit, and global governance deficit. The developed countries including the United States have tended to show reluctance and drag their heels on reform of the global governance system, due to the lack of both their contributions and willingness. Developing countries such as China are actively promoting globalization and fairer global governance, and consistently playing a constructive role.In international affairs, the influence of the United States has declined relatively, while the roles played by regional organizations including the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, as well as some regional powers, have grown.

Amid the complex changes transforming the international landscape,there are also some “invariables”: peace,development, and win-win cooperation are still the trends of our times; world multi-polarization, economic globalization, social informatization, cultural diversification, and scientific technological innovation are constantly making progress; national economies continue to display convergence of interests and the trend of interdependence; the international balance of power is still undergoing important transformation, and many development centers are being fostered around the world, although the overall global balance of power is still conducive to maintaining international peace and development.

President Xi Jinping delivers a keynote speech at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in Vietnam's central city of Da Nang on November 10, 2017. The topic is “Seizing the Opportunity of a Global Economy in Transition and Accelerating Development of the Asia-Pacific”.

Global challenges have continually risen in both number and urgency,which calls for the concerted efforts of the international community. Global hotspot issues including terrorism, climate change, energy, food, green development and a low-carbon economy, and public health security, have given rise to close communication among the international community, triggering the deep thinking of global powers, affecting major-power relations by strengthening their concerted actions, and also becoming their common pursuit and convergence of interests.

President Xi Jinping attended the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in Vietnam's central city of Da Nang on November 10, 2017.

The global economy is expected to have grown 3.6 percent in 2017 with global trade growing by about 4 percent. Among the major advanced economies, the United States is gaining recovery momentum. Some estimate that the United States will witness robust economic recovery with a growth rate of 2.4 percent. Close attention will need to be paid to the influence of Trump’s tax reform on the United States’ external competitiveness, and the US Federal Reserve’s raising of interest rates and the reducing of the its balance sheets so that proper measures can be taken. Besides, the United States’domestic political polarization will hinder its economic development and the resolving of structural problems such as decreasing labor productivity, heavy debt and aging population. Europe has witnessed obviously greater market confidence, but its steady growth might be hampered by some uncertainties,including Brexit and political instability. Japan enjoys moderate growth, but the damage to its economy caused by a series of manufacturing scandals will be long-lasting. Among major emerging economies, Brazil and Russia have emerged from recession and East Asian economies have maintained their recovery momentum.

It is expected that proper management will get the changing world out of the mess it is in. A peaceful world and prosperous homeland are the common aspirations of the peoples of the world despite their different cultures, political systems, and stages of development. Pursuing stability and development is the converging interest of the world.

Constants and variables are intertwined in the global landscape. The basic international power structure is as follows: The United States remains the world’s sole superpower though it its strength is relatively waning. With the rise of the East and the decline of the West, the global political and economic center is shifting to the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, China’s rise, although far from a foregone conclusion,is contributing to the constant change in the international balance of power.

Pursuing Order in Chaos: China’s Proposed Solution for Global Governance

In 2017, China inherited past achievements and broke new ground in its diplomacy. By taking active, innovative and pioneering steps, China has made crucial breakthroughs and important headway in many areas of diplomatic work, and enjoyed rising international in fluence.

First, by ensuring stable relations among major countries, China initiated overall diplomacy. During the Mar-a-Lago Summit and President Trump’s state visit to China, important consensuses were reached on deepening bilateral cooperation in various fields,and that sound and steady China-US relations conform to the interests of both countries, the Asia-Pacific region and the world. Cooperation is the only correct choice for achieving that. President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin exchanged visits and met five times throughout the year. The China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination has continued to move forward thanks to the joint efforts of both sides. China and Europe have fostered new progress in the development of their partnership for peace, growth, reform and the progress of human civilization. The strategic substance of China-Europe relations has been enriched and expanded.

Second, China endeavored to promote and maintain stability in its neighborhood and the positive momentum of regional cooperation. President Xi Jinping paid successful visits to Vietnam and Laos; China-Philippines relations kept a healthy momentum; China also deepened bilateral relations with traditional friends including Cambodia,Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. Bilateral relations with both the Republic of Korea and Japan have shown signs of improvement. China handled the trespass of Indian border troops into China’s Donglang area in its national interests, on just grounds and with restraint.Mutual trust between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) was further enhanced. China also actively worked for the settlement of hotspot issues in its neighborhood by playing a major role in seeking a peaceful resolution to the DPRK nuclear issue and the Korean Peninsula crisis, the Afghanistan-Pakistan bilateral crisis and the unrest in Rakhine State in Myanmar.

Third, China presented its vision in the course for globalization. At the World Economic Forum in Davos in early 2017, President Xi Jinping delivered an important speech. Against the backdrop of a sluggish world economy and the anti-globalization trend, President Xi, from a strategically advantageous position, pointed out that many of the world’s problems are not the result of economic globalization, hence trade protectionism will not prove to be a proper solution.

Fourth, China continued making contributions to global governance.The Belt and Road Initiative, gathering extensive international consensus,has been translated from vision and blueprint into international action and progress on the ground. In May 2017,the first Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF) was successfully held in Beijing. The Belt and Road Initiative has become the most popular international public good around the world nowadays.

Fifth, great achievements were made in multilateral diplomacy. President Xi Jinping gave an important address on promoting Asia-Pacific economic integration at the APEC Economic Leaders’Meeting in Da Nang, Vietnam. At the first Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit after its enlargement,President Xi emphasized that the members of the organization should remain true to its original aspirations and push forward the development of the SCO in the right direction. China-ASEAN relations moved toward a higher level and important early harvests have been achieved in the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism. The BRICS Xiamen Summit not only proved to be a full success, but also introduced a new approach to cooperation, i.e. BRICS+.

Major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics in the new era is undergoing various transitions. In terms of its strategic missions, the China Dream is closely interlinked with the World Dream of building a community with a shared future for all mankind.As to the strategic task, China will fully participate and play a guiding role in global governance. In terms of specific policies, China will shape its external environment by working in a proactive manner and creating development opportunities. China upholds the principles of peaceful co-existence and mutual respect, and avoids confrontation. In the economic arena, it calls on countries to stick together through thick and thin,adhere to inclusiveness and win-win cooperation, and promote connectivity.China follows the principle of achieving shared growth through discussions and collaboration in reform of the global governance system. With the expansion of the connotations and extension of major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics, China will firmly safeguard its national sovereignty and security, serve domestic development and opening-up, and strengthen its ability in protecting overseas interests.

In his report to the 19thCPC National Congress, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that China will forge a new form of international relations and build a community with a shared future for mankind. These two missions guide the direction for major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics in the new era. The “new form of international relations featuring mutual respect, fairness, justice and win-win cooperation”,in its essence, is trying to explore a new way of handling country-to-country relations. The proposal to build a community with a shared future for all mankind aims to answer the major philosophical and historical propositions of where mankind and the world are heading. It seeks to build an open, inclusive, clean,and beautiful world that enjoys lasting peace, universal security and common prosperity.

China’s development remains in a critical and strategic period. An ever growing and developing China provides the most important endogenous opportunity, while the restructuring and adjustment of the international order offers a precious external chance. With the enhancement of its comprehensive national power, China can continually strengthen its ability to shape the international order. However, as the Chinese saying goes, “the tree craves calm, but the wind will not subside.” Difficulties and obstacles are inevitable in China’s further development. We should know the opponent and know ourselves, and be prepared for dangers and uncertainties in times of peace. We should also be prudent and avoid risks so as to make progress while maintaining stability.Looking to the future, the world is undergoing continued reform and adjustment, and Chinese diplomacy in the new era will make due contributions to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation as well as the future and destiny of mankind.