CHINA-US RELATIONS:REDUCING SHORT-TERM FRAGILITY AND SHAPING LONG-TERM STABILITY

DA WEI

Assistant President of University of International Relations (UIR) and Director of UIR Research Center for International Strategy and Security Studies

Between November 8 and 10, 2017, US President Donald Trump made his first state visit to China. The timing of the visit was very special: the 19thNational Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) had concluded barely over a fortnight before, at which General Secretary Xi Jinping proclaimed that socialism with Chinese characteristics had entered a “new era”; and looking from the American side, the visit fell on the first anniversary of Mr. Trump’s election as US President. During the year, China-US relations has suffered turbulence at firstwith some of the words and deeds by the President-elect but achieved overall stability since President Trump took office. Availing themselves of this opportunity, it was important for both sides to retrospect on the development of China-US relations over the past year and to prospect on the trend of the bilateral ties in the next round. It could not have been timelier to do so.

“State Visit Plus”Helps Advance-Pattern of Stability

Whereas China-US relations are one of the most important bilateral relations of the world today, President Trump happened to be the first foreign head of state to visit China upon the conclusion of the 19thCPC National Congress. As such, the Chinese Government attached great importance to the visit, according it with a courteous reception of “state visit +”. As Vice-Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang put it, “the Beijing meeting of the heads of states of China and the United States will draw a blueprint for developing China-US relations in the new era”. It was obvious that the Chinese Government wished to see the visit by President Trump to make a good start of China-US relations in the new era and to serve the relationship in the mid and long-term.For this particular visit, China in the main set store by long-term and strategic issues, even though long-term stability of the relationship needs to be achieved by continued short-term cooperation.

From the American perspective, it is well-known that President Trump repeatedly bashed US-China economic and trade relations during his presidential campaign. It is somehow surprising to note that in the ten months since he assumed presidency, the overall China-US relations has maintained stability without a “trade war” worried by all to happen in bilateral economic and trade relations. The US strategic community and mainstream media that are harsh and even critical of Mr. Trum pin general have begun to question and scoff that the President turns “soft” on China.With a scorecard less than presentable so far for his administration since taking office, President Trump need to produce some concrete results during his first visits to the Asia-Pacific to pay back his supporters and “gag” his domestic opponents. Hence, the American side set more store by short-term and tactic issues for the visit, particularly on economic and trade issues and the Korean nuclear issue.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (2nd R) and his wife Peng Liyuan (1st R), and U.S. President Donald Trump (2nd L) who is in China for a state visit and his wife Melania Trump pose for a photo in front of Taihedian, the Hall of Supreme Harmony, during their visit to the Palace Museum, or the Forbidden City, in Beijing, on Nov. 8, 2017.

In sum, both China and the United States achieved their respective objectives from the top-level interaction this time around. From the Chinese perspective, since February and March 2017 when the bilateral ties gradually stabilized the development of the rela-tionship has maintained stability. The successful visit by President Trump to China rounded up in complete success the first round of high-level exchange mechanism that consists of exchange of visits between leaders of both countries and four high-level dialogue mechanisms during the first ten months of President Trump’s first term, deepening the good working relationship between the two leaders. Though it is next to impossibility for both countries to remove the differences between them on economic and trade issues and the Korean nuclear issue, both sides have maintained the positive, cooperative momentum between them. China-US relations have been given new dynamics after stabilization some ten months ago. In the American perspective, both the Chinese and American sides exchanged views on the Korean nuclear issue. In economic and trade area, President Trump brought back with him a “big order”worth US$253.5 billion, being unprecedented in the bilateral relationship and underlining to the full the weight of China-US economic and trade ties.Through arrangements like nocturnal dinner in the Palace Museum and grand welcoming ceremony, President Trump and his supporters have had a taste of the great respect for the American leader and the great importance attached to the bilateral ties by the Chinese side.To be true, there has been quite a lot of soufflé in mainstream US media asserting that President Trump has few concrete results to show for the visit. But to be fair, behind that judgment there is quite a little prejudice of the US “l(fā)iberal”media.

Short-Term: a Fragile Stability

While affirming near and mid-term stability of China-US relations, one could not but note that such stability is fragile. Fragility arises from the personality of President Trump, which is changeable and fluctuates a lot. In case he feels the Chinese side does not live up to his hope on issues of importance to him, is it possible to cause major change to his assessment to China and likewise to his China policy? Such a possibility cannot be ruled out. In general, in the policy making system of a country, institutional factor is the one for long-term stability, and thus the predominant one. But the Trump Administration is a special case, in which the personal factor of the American leader increases in proportion to the US policy making system. And so much so increases the possibility for the changeable personal factor to overweigh more stable institutional factor. Thus increases the unpredictability of the China policy of the United States.

The first China-made subway cars tailored for Boston’s orange line roll off the production line of CRRC Changchun Railway Vehicles on Oct.16. The subway cars, which have been for the first time produced in China based on American standards, will not only meet American requirements in technology, business,localization and laws, but also improve passengers’ traveling experiences with its humanized design.

Secondly, the Trump Administration is the slowest one in the making in American history. To date, there are many vacancies on the middle-level positions in the executive branch of government, which is true with positions relating to China policy. The appointment of such positions in the future may cause variations on the tactic level of US-China relations.

Third, President Trump’s relations with the American Establishment are strained. Out of being ill at ease with the Trump Administration, the US Congress, where the Establishment is more entrenched, tends to make more interventions in foreign policy. Generally speaking, the Capitol has a role to play on procedural matters in US foreign policy, whereas on strategic, security matters it is far less active than the executive branch of government. However,less than a year into the Trump Administration, the tendency of US Congress to intervenein foreign policy is on the increase, the reason behind which is that the Establishment is ill at ease with Trump. It would be justified to say that wherever Trump wishes to establish himself, it is likely for the Capitol to do the contrary. Even in areas where Trump does a reasonably good job, the Capitol tends to look closely into what he does with a magnifier. Such seesaw effects manifest most strikingly in USRussia relations. Precisely because Trump tries to relax US-Russia relations,the Capitol and the Establishment of both major parties have taken many a measure to prevent him from so doing.For instance, concerned about Trump to uplift sanctions placed on Russia,the Capitol passed a law to withdraw the power to do so from the President.Likewise, on US-China relations, stable relations between the two governments may be disrupted by the Capitol. Since the outset of 2017, the US Congress has made incessant maneuvers on Taiwan and human right issues. For example,it has put a “freeride” article on US-Taiwan military exchange into the Defense Authorization Act, attempted to pass a Taiwan Travel Act and the list goes on.All this more or less has to do with perceived stable China policy of the executive branch of the US Government.

The fact that China “has become strong” certainly means that China-US relationship will become “one between two strong countries”.

Long-Term: Continued American Anxiety

Comparing to short-term fragility,more noteworthy is long-term strategic anxiety on the American side. Over the past decade, negative assessments on China are on the rise in the US strategic community, with increasing negative side of its China policy proposals. As the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics progresses in the new era, this tendency may intensify. Obviously, be it for one term or two, the Trump Administration is a relatively short period. In the course of China’s national rejuvenation thirty years down the road, it is the long-term assessments on China by the US strategic community that is a key factor affecting the direction of China-US relations.

In the past five years, China has gradually entered into a new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics. China has gradually achieved a transformation from “stand-up” and “grow-rich” to“become-strong”. The 19thCPC National Congress made it clear to build China into a “great modern socialist country”by the middle of the century. It is worth noting that the historical process for China to “become strong” has already and will continue to change the balance of power between China and the United States. Since the 19thcentury, China-US relationship has always been one between a relatively weak country (China)and a relatively strong country (the United States). The fact that China “has become strong” certainly means that China-US relationship will become “one between two strong countries”. Given that there is still a big gap of comprehensive national strength between both countries, the fact that power is being concentrated between the two strong countries of China and the United States is accepted by more and more people.Such a structural change will surely have important bearings on China-US relations. Though it is not necessary for the so called “Thucydides Trap” to happen, it is a sure tendency that the structural change makes it more difficult to handle China-US relations.

In self-confidence, China proclaims to have entered a new era of building socialism with Chinese characteristics,which brings about a more clear-cut profile that the development model of China “parts ways” with that of the United States. Upon the end of the Cold War, American scholar Fujiyama came up with the proposition of “the end of history”, which once held sway worldwide. In the past few decades,mainstream American opinions have all along believed that China’s development path would eventually “converge”with that of the United States. What the US should do is to continuously “engage” China and to sustainably influence and shape the country. However,with continued development of China along the path of its own choosing, particularly over the past decade, believers of “convergence” are on the decrease within the US, and the logical premise of “engagement strategy”, namely to engage China in order to shape its strategic direction, has been strongly questioned. That is the background of the great debate on China policy of 2015 in the US, and also the core reason for the change of assessment on China by the American strategic community. As a former senior official of the US Government who visited China recently observed, the new definition of the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics by the 19thCPC National Congress will make the believers in China-US“convergence” disappear once and for all. The fact that China firmly and confidently takes its own development path and development model does not mean that China’s development path will necessarily collide with that of the United States head on. Neither does it means that the development paths of the two countries will necessarily go parallel. Rather, it means that either of the countries will take its own path of development, each cherishing its own values. There will be competition to a certain degree, a matter that it will take time for the American strategic community to digest and to accept.

The cause of socialism of Chinese characteristics has entered into a new era, whose manifestation in foreign policy terms is that China has taken a more proactive stance in global arena and begun to produce proposals of global bearing. From the end of the 1970s on,as a developing country focusing on developing its own economy China used to take a more “defensive posture” in face of the international order,mainly concerned with its ow security and interest. As China declares to have entered into a new era, it begins to call for building a community with a shared future for mankind and building a “new type of international relations” from a perspective of the whole mankind or a global perspective. As the Report to the 19thCPC National Congress put it, the practice of socialism of Chinese characteristics bears important significance not only for China’s national rejuvenation but also for the development of contemporary scientific socialism at large. On top of that, it also bears special significance “for other countries and nations who want to speed up their development while preserving their independence”. For long, the American strategic community has believed that Western models and experience are the only approach of universal bearing. The change in China will evidently affect their strategic assessments on China, and hence affect their mid and long-term China strategy.

Chinese First lady Peng Liyuan and US President Donald Trump's wife Melania visited Banchang elementary school in Beijing on Nov.9, 2017. They pose for a group photo with the students at the cultural performance after watching the show.

What differs from the past is that the balance of power between China and the United States is one moving toward balance.

Seizing Present Opportunities

What differs from the past is that the balance of power between China and the United States is one moving toward balance. China’s capacity of shaping China-US relations is on the rise. Not only dose such shaping capacity rest with ever narrowing gap in comprehensive national strength between the two countries, it also rests with China’s much stronger capacity of strategic planning, strategic making and strategic execution. In today’s China-US relations, it is necessary for China to play the leading role.

As an “anti-establishment” President,Mr. Trump’s China policy is different somehow from what is proposed by the US Establishment. On the one hand,as one can observe that between his election as president in November 2016 and around February 2017, reflected on China-US relations, Trump’s “anti-establishment” might make him more negative than the Establishment, once challenging the One China Policy for one,or linking together various subjects like the Korean nuclear issue and economic and trade issues. On the other, as one can observe that since March 2017, his“anti-establishment” has helped set him free from some of the mindset of the Establishment, becoming more positive with China-US relations.

Under present circumstances, China’s strategic choice on China-US relations is clear cut: to do what is possible to extend and strengthen present pattern of stability in China-US relations and reduce fragility in the short haul and,at the same time, proceeding from long-term perspective, to do what is necessary to shape a framework for mid and long-term, strategic stability in the bilateral ties. To reach the short-term objectives above, it is necessary to rely on close interactions at top level between the two countries and meanwhile on making continued progresson economic and trade issues and the Korean nuclear issue so as to keep the momentum of cooperation. In particular, it is necessary to guard against “disruptive”factors that arise all of a sudden from the China policy of the Trump Administration. In the coming period of time,the importance of some of the “old issues”in China-US relations such as the Taiwan issue may rise up again, which deserves fore warning.

As long as present pattern of short and mid-term stability of China-US relations can be maintained, it will be necessary for both China and the United States to seize the opportunities to forge a framework for mid and longterm strategic stability of relationship between the two countries. That is to say, it is necessary to take certain measures for long-term stability of bilateral ties. To construct such a framework,efforts should be made in three areas as follows.

First, it is necessary to increasingly bind the interests of the two countries.China and the United States should bind their interests together in trade and investment relations, and timely reopen negotiations for a bilateral agreement on investment protection.At the same time, it is also necessary to increase the “binding” through expanding cultural exchanges between the two countries and expanding cooperation between them on regional and global issues to increasingly make China-US relationship “too big to fall”.

Secondly, it is necessary to further advance crisis management between the two militaries. During the Obama Administration, a series of agreements on crisis management measures were reached between the Chinese and American militaries. Over the past two years, this process has somehow slowed down. In the future, it should be deepened as soon as possible.

Third, it is necessary to build “mutual political trust measures” between the two countries. Mutual trust measures originally fall into military area between the two countries, which aim to assure each country through exchange and actions that the other country is neither intent nor capable of attacking it. Of course, such measures for mutual trust are needed between China and the United States in military area. And so much so it is necessary to make similar institutional arrangements in political area.

As a US president not so enthusiastic in exporting American ideology, it may be likely for President Trump to work together with the Chinese side in making some rules, forming some tacit agreements and demonstrating by actions that the United States will not pose a threat to China’s political security. Conversely, China may build basic trust on the American side on major issues of special concern to the US, such as if China will try to “kick the US out of Asia”or to deny the US“freedom of navigation”, assuring the latter that the former neither is capable nor intends to do so.

It is no easy matter for China-US relations to have moved from a storm gathering in the not so distant mountains to present conditions of relative stability over less than a year in the past. It dawns on China that by preparing for the worst and, at the same time,by meticulous management and being bold in imagination, it is possible for the Chinese side to stabilize China-US relations within acceptable perimeters by applying capacity of imagination and shaping bilateral ties. It is possible to make the relationship part of the framework of major country relations featuring “overall stability and balanced development”.