人工智能驅(qū)動未來

Grayson+Brulte

Today， we are just beginning to scratch the surface1） of what is possible with artificial intelligence （A.I.） and how individuals will interact with its various forms. Every single aspect of our society—from cars to houses to products to services—will be reimagined and redesigned to incorporate A.I.

A child born in the year 2030 will not comprehend why his or her parents once had to manually2） turn on the lights in the living room. In the future， the smart home will seamlessly3） know the needs， wants and habits of the individuals who live in the home prior to them taking an action.

Before we arrive at this future， it is helpful to take a step back and reimagine how we design cars， houses， products and services. We are just beginning to see glimpses of this future with the Amazon Echo and Google Home smart voice assistants.

Amazon， Apple， Google and to some extent Microsoft understand that the future of computing is voice input， powered by A.I. Moving towards a future where voice will become the primary input command will balance the playing field4） and allow those who have medical conditions such as early stage Alzheimer&apos；s5） to continue to communicate and interact with society.

Children of the future will grow up fully immersed6） in a world powered by A.I. The design of this child&apos；s world will be completely different from our world today， as the child will learn how to communicate with a machine by the time they&apos；re 2 years old.

As a child&apos；s vocabulary grows into full sentences， their personal A.I. engine will grow up with them. These children will grow up in a fully immersed world of A.I. where they will interact with everything using their voice.

Sundar Pichai， CEO of Google， recently penned a blog post in which he described a similar future with A.I.： "In the next 10 years， we will shift to a world that is A.I.-first， a world where computing becomes universally available—be it at home， at work， in the car or on the go—and interacting with all of these surfaces becomes much more natural and intuitive7）， and above all， more intelligent."

While the interaction becomes more natural， the way we design for a future which integrates A.I. seamlessly into daily life will pose a challenge. But it&apos；s a challenge worth tackling： The A.I. industry is projected to grow to $70 billion by 2020 from just $8.2 billion in 2013 according to Bank of America.

The popularity of the garage in the United States started around 1925 when houses with garages started to sell faster than homes without a garage. By 1939， 80 percent of all new houses built had a garage. This growth was partly fueled by the design of the automatic rolling garage door. Today， the necessity to design a garage for the smart home of the future is lessened as a majority of individuals will subscribe to an autonomous vehicle brand instead of owning a vehicle.

When you subscribe to a vehicle， 95 percent of the time you will not need to garage the vehicle when it is not in use. Instead of pulling up to your house and going through the routine of opening and closing the garage doors， the autonomous vehicle will drop you off at your front door. Upon entry， the house will be set the way you prefer with lighting， temperature and music depending on the time of day you arrive.

The A.I. that powers your smart home will understand the quirks8） that make you uniquely you and will ensure that the house operates in an efficient manner. The home will always be listening and waiting for voice commands to complete tasks.

When the home becomes a smart home and society is inherently9） intertwined10） with A.I.， our habits and traits will change. Individuals will become smarter and more efficient as everything they own or subscribe to will be connected to an A.I. engine. This gigantic11） shift in society will have a dramatic impact on how cars， houses， products and services are designed.

Will you be ready for the change？

人工智能未來可能會達(dá)到什么樣的高度？個人又將如何與各種形式的人工智能進(jìn)行互動？對于這些，我們?nèi)缃癫艅倓傞_始觸及其表面。從汽車到房屋、到產(chǎn)品、到服務(wù)，我們社會的每一個方面都將被重新想象和重新設(shè)計(jì)，以融入人工智能。

2030年出生的孩子將不會理解自己的父母以前為什么必須手動打開起居室的燈。在未來，智能房屋將會在居住其中的人們采取任何行動之前，就毫不費(fèi)力地了解其需求、想法和習(xí)慣。

在我們走進(jìn)這樣的未來之前，退后一步重新想象一下我們要如何設(shè)計(jì)汽車、房屋、產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)，這樣做會很有好處。借由亞馬遜智能音箱Echo和谷歌家居智能語音助手，我們才剛剛開始看見這種未來的隱隱微光。

亞馬遜、蘋果和谷歌（從某種程度上來說，還有微軟）都相信計(jì)算機(jī)的未來是這樣的：靠人工智能驅(qū)動的語音輸入。在未來，語音將會成為主要的命令輸入方式，這樣的發(fā)展方向?qū)尭偁幁h(huán)境變得公平，讓身患疾病（如早期癡呆癥）的人能繼續(xù)與社會進(jìn)行溝通和互動。

未來的孩子將會完全沉浸在一個由人工智能驅(qū)動的世界里長大。他們成長的這個世界的設(shè)計(jì)將全然不同于我們今日所處的世界，因?yàn)槲磥硎澜缰械暮⒆觽兊?歲時就將學(xué)習(xí)如何和機(jī)器交流。

隨著一個孩子的詞匯量增長到可以說出完整的句子，他們個人的人工智能引擎也會跟著他們一同發(fā)展。這些孩子將會在一個完全沉浸在人工智能中的世界里長大，他們在這里將通過語音來同世界上的一切打交道。

谷歌首席執(zhí)行官桑達(dá)爾·皮查伊最近（編注：英文原文發(fā)表于2016年10月）寫了一篇博文，文中描述了一個類似的人工智能的未來：“在接下來的10年里，我們會轉(zhuǎn)變到一個以人工智能為主導(dǎo)的世界。在這個世界里，計(jì)算機(jī)運(yùn)作會無處不在，不論是在家、在工作、在車?yán)锘蚴窃诿χ鍪裁词?。與所有這些計(jì)算機(jī)運(yùn)用界面打交道將會變得更為自然、更本能，并且最重要的是，更為智能?！?/p>

雖然與人工智能的互動會變得更加自然，但如何設(shè)計(jì)這樣一個將人工智能無縫融入日常生活的未來卻是一大挑戰(zhàn)。不過這一挑戰(zhàn)值得我們應(yīng)對：據(jù)美國銀行預(yù)測，人工智能行業(yè)產(chǎn)值到2020年時將會從2013年的82億美元增長到700億美元。

車庫在美國的流行始于1925年左右，當(dāng)時帶車庫的房子比沒有車庫的房子更搶手。到1939年，80%的新建住宅都配有車庫。這一增長部分是由于車庫自動卷門設(shè)計(jì)的推動。如今，為未來的智能房屋設(shè)計(jì)車庫的必要性已經(jīng)減弱了，因?yàn)榇蠖鄶?shù)人將會訂購自動駕駛汽車，而不是購買機(jī)動車。

在訂購了自動駕駛汽車之后，不用車的時候，有95%的時間你都不需要把它開進(jìn)車庫里。你不再需要把車停在房前，然后例行來上一遍開車庫門關(guān)車庫門；相反，自動駕駛車輛將讓你在你家前門下車。等你一進(jìn)門，房屋將會根據(jù)你到家的時間設(shè)定好你喜歡的亮度、溫度以及音樂。

驅(qū)動你智能房屋的人工智能將了解你那些獨(dú)有的小怪癖，并會確保房屋以高效的方式運(yùn)行。你的房屋將會永遠(yuǎn)聆聽并等待你的語音指令來完成任務(wù)。

當(dāng)房屋變成智能房屋，當(dāng)人工智能完全融入社會，我們的習(xí)慣和特征也會發(fā)生改變。由于我們擁有和訂購的所有東西都會與一個人工智能引擎相連，人會變得更聰明也更高效。這一翻天覆地的社會變化將會對汽車、房屋、產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的設(shè)計(jì)產(chǎn)生巨大影響。

面對這樣的變化，你準(zhǔn)備好了嗎？

1. scratch the surface： 觸及表面，淺嘗輒止；未做深入研究

2. manually [?m?nju?li] adv. 手動地

3. seamlessly [?si?ml?sli] adv. 毫不費(fèi)力地；無縫地

4. playing field： 公平競爭的環(huán)境

5. Alzheimer&apos；s： 阿爾茨海默病，患者思維能力和記憶力逐漸衰退。

6. immerse [??m??s] vt. 使沉浸

7. intuitive [?n?tju??t?v] adj. 本能的；憑直覺的

8. quirk [kw??k] n. 怪癖

9. inherently [?n?h??r?ntli] adv. 內(nèi)在地

10. intertwine [??nt??twa?n] vt. 使密切關(guān)聯(lián)

11. gigantic [d?a??ɡ?nt?k] adj. 巨大無比的