西方農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論與方法新進(jìn)展研究

2015-08-15 00:55:00杜為公,李艷芳

武漢輕工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào) 2015年3期

關(guān)鍵詞：生產(chǎn)率經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)農(nóng)業(yè)

杜為公1,李艷芳2

(1.武漢輕工大學(xué) 湖北縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心,湖北武漢 430023；2.軍事經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院,湖北武漢 430035)

摘要：按照現(xiàn)代主流經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的理論框架，從農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)、農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)要素、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策、農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),研究方法等方面展現(xiàn)西方農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論與方法的新進(jìn)展。研究目的是為我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論體系構(gòu)建和農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供借鑒。

關(guān)鍵詞：農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué);新進(jìn)展

收稿日期：2015-06-09.

作者簡(jiǎn)介：杜為公(1964-)，男，副教授，E-mail:18702711368@163.com.

基金項(xiàng)目：2013年國(guó)家社科基金后期資助項(xiàng)目(13FJY007)；2014年湖北省社科

文章編號(hào)：2095-7386(2015)03-0094-06

DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-7386.2015.03.020

中圖分類號(hào)：F 118

New development of the theory and methods in

western economics of agriculture

DUWei-gong1，LIYan-fang2

(1.Center for County Economy Development Research in Hubei，Wuhan Polytechnic University，Wuhan 430023，China;

2.Military Economics Academy，Wuhan 430035，China)

Abstract：Based on the theoretic frame work of modern economics, this paper provides us with the information about the new progress in the field of western economics of agriculture. Specifically, the passage contains: agricultural production, the factors of agricultural production, the policy of agricultural economy, the relationship between the development of agriculture and the booming of economy and research methods. This research will contribute to the establishment of the theoretical system of our country while also acting as a reference for the development of agricultural economy..

Key words：economics of agriculture ；new development

1引言

西方農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論與方法新進(jìn)展研究是通過(guò)對(duì)近期國(guó)外農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)相關(guān)研究的梳理，總結(jié)現(xiàn)代西方農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論與方法新進(jìn)展，分析其理論與方法發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，并說(shuō)明應(yīng)當(dāng)如何科學(xué)借鑒，有助于我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論體系構(gòu)建和農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。本文試圖按照現(xiàn)代主流經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的理論框架展現(xiàn)西方農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論與方法新進(jìn)展。

2關(guān)于農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)研究的新進(jìn)展

關(guān)于農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)函數(shù)研究，主要運(yùn)用由生產(chǎn)函數(shù)、貿(mào)易函數(shù)、需求函數(shù)構(gòu)成的系統(tǒng)模型分析現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)。有學(xué)者試圖尋找適用于所有國(guó)家的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)函數(shù)，如使用Rwtlan函數(shù)對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析，認(rèn)為農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械的彈性隨時(shí)間不斷提高，化肥的彈性呈下降趨勢(shì)，教育對(duì)生產(chǎn)率的提高具有正效應(yīng)(Mans and Francis，2003)[1]。學(xué)者們重視土地制度對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的影響。認(rèn)為土地制度改革的趨勢(shì)是采用自愿的、分散的、市場(chǎng)化的方式將土地從大型農(nóng)場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)移到小農(nóng)場(chǎng)，可以提高貧困者的需求曲線和大農(nóng)場(chǎng)的供給曲線，即將土地從富人轉(zhuǎn)移到貧困者手中(Deiniger and Olinto，2000)[2]。大型種植園是在殖民地國(guó)家存在的一種有效生產(chǎn)方式(Robert and Andrew，2010)[3]。比種植園更有效率的方法是采用“訂單農(nóng)業(yè)”的方式，政府應(yīng)及時(shí)提供上述政策支持，內(nèi)容應(yīng)涉及利率、土地稅，提供教育、研發(fā)和技術(shù)普及投入等(Hayami，2002)[4]。1952—1978年，中國(guó)土地改革的目標(biāo)是滿足工業(yè)和城市部門的發(fā)展需要，政府采用土地集中和大面積耕種的方式，各種生產(chǎn)要素向大生產(chǎn)單位集中，產(chǎn)品由國(guó)家統(tǒng)一收購(gòu)，投入要素由國(guó)家統(tǒng)一提供。這種方式對(duì)農(nóng)民的生產(chǎn)激勵(lì)很小，農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率低下(Shenggen and Joanna，2010)[5]。

3關(guān)于農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)要素研究的新進(jìn)展

在農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力投入決策、農(nóng)業(yè)人力資源投資影響、農(nóng)業(yè)人力資源投資、農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)與農(nóng)業(yè)要素流動(dòng)、農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移等方面，有學(xué)者對(duì)擇業(yè)選擇、勞動(dòng)合同與政策影響進(jìn)行了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析，說(shuō)明了農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力就業(yè)選擇、勞動(dòng)合同和勞動(dòng)力組織問(wèn)題特點(diǎn)(James Sang Hyop，2007)[6]。在假設(shè)有效率的情形下，相關(guān)的勞動(dòng)市場(chǎng)研究涉及了農(nóng)戶決策與生產(chǎn)組織問(wèn)題(Yang，2003)[7]。計(jì)件工資可以用于可觀測(cè)、工作效果可計(jì)量的工作，如運(yùn)輸農(nóng)產(chǎn)品等。但對(duì)于不明顯的工作，如施灑化肥等，一般不會(huì)采用計(jì)件工資。對(duì)易于監(jiān)控的工作，則可以采用固定工資合同，對(duì)不易監(jiān)控的工作，則傾向于使用計(jì)件工資合同(Newman and Jarvis，2000)[8]。在新“二元論”中，一般基于大型農(nóng)場(chǎng)雇傭勞動(dòng)力生產(chǎn)的無(wú)效率而效率較低，需要采用土地改革政策進(jìn)行調(diào)整(Deininger，2003)[9]。當(dāng)前的研究應(yīng)關(guān)注如何使家庭耕作向?qū)I(yè)化和市場(chǎng)化的耕作方式轉(zhuǎn)變。需要建立超越空間、時(shí)間的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)與消費(fèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈(Reardon，2005)[10]。當(dāng)農(nóng)業(yè)收入是主要收入來(lái)源時(shí)，農(nóng)業(yè)收入決定了教育投資；當(dāng)接受教育的農(nóng)業(yè)工人在非農(nóng)部門找到工作后，教育投資的回報(bào)率提高(Hayami and Godo，2005)[11]。有學(xué)者給出了由農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步、人力資本提升引發(fā)的可觀測(cè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的分析框架，借助于2000年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與發(fā)展的經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)，給出了教育對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析數(shù)據(jù)，討論了健康、營(yíng)養(yǎng)、勞動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用，總結(jié)了教育對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出貢獻(xiàn)率(Wallace，2002)[12]。技術(shù)進(jìn)步促進(jìn)了傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)向現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)變，技術(shù)進(jìn)步提高了勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率，使農(nóng)業(yè)剩余勞動(dòng)力向城市工業(yè)部門轉(zhuǎn)移，對(duì)長(zhǎng)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有重要作用。有學(xué)者(Johnson，2000)研究了由初始農(nóng)業(yè)部門勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移引發(fā)的長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)問(wèn)題[13]。Smih和Haddad(2000)利用跨時(shí)間、跨國(guó)界數(shù)據(jù)研究了改善兒童營(yíng)養(yǎng)的投資決策問(wèn)題，認(rèn)為決策的50%決定于父母的受教育水平，25%決定于糧食的供給水平，20%決定于飲水和衛(wèi)生條件[14]。在關(guān)于農(nóng)業(yè)新技術(shù)推廣、農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)與農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)、農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)變化影響、農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)研發(fā)投資收益等方面，認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和市場(chǎng)化水平提高進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)了農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化的發(fā)展。有學(xué)者研究了機(jī)械采用模式和作用，以及農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化政策問(wèn)題(Prabhu，2007)[15]。農(nóng)業(yè)研發(fā)可以直接提高小型農(nóng)場(chǎng)和農(nóng)業(yè)家庭產(chǎn)量，從而提高食物的自我消費(fèi)量和市場(chǎng)交易量，可以從農(nóng)業(yè)之外的其它部門獲得更多的工資收入，可以改善農(nóng)民的市場(chǎng)決策能力，提高抵御市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力。但也有學(xué)者認(rèn)為，緩解貧困和收入均等化是不同的概念，農(nóng)業(yè)研發(fā)不能同時(shí)解決這兩類問(wèn)題(Hossain，2007)[16]。增產(chǎn)技術(shù)與土地節(jié)約技術(shù)對(duì)環(huán)境的影響不同。土地節(jié)約型技術(shù)可能會(huì)帶來(lái)土地貧瘠、土壤肥力下降、生態(tài)多樣化喪失等問(wèn)題，這種技術(shù)僅適用于貧困問(wèn)題嚴(yán)重和人口密集地區(qū)。產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)型技術(shù)有助于保持森林和植被，但也會(huì)因化肥、農(nóng)藥使用過(guò)度帶來(lái)新的環(huán)境問(wèn)題(Hazell and Wood，2008)[17]。證實(shí)了技術(shù)投資對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家的全要素生產(chǎn)率(TFP)的重要作用(Antonio and Robert，2010)[18]。綠色革命改變了南亞國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀態(tài)，也改變了農(nóng)業(yè)研發(fā)的目標(biāo)和實(shí)施，即由提高農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率為目標(biāo)，轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榧訌?qiáng)自然資源管理和農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制創(chuàng)新為目標(biāo)(Asian Development Bank，2000)[19]。信息傳遞同樣具有價(jià)值，信息傳遞方式主要有，從朋友、鄰居，從農(nóng)業(yè)投入要素供給企業(yè)，從媒體、政府獲取信息等。現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)已經(jīng)成為信息密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)，如何提供信息來(lái)滿足需求，取決于市場(chǎng)和制度環(huán)境(Gautan，2000)[20]。擴(kuò)散對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展具有正向作用，擴(kuò)散投資的回報(bào)率為58%、研發(fā)的回報(bào)率為49%，研發(fā)與擴(kuò)散投資的回報(bào)率為36%(Alsto，2000)[21]。研發(fā)提高了農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率，在推動(dòng)農(nóng)業(yè)部門增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí)也帶動(dòng)了非農(nóng)部門的增長(zhǎng)，研發(fā)已經(jīng)成為現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的引擎(Robert and Douglas，2007)[22]。

4關(guān)于農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策研究的新進(jìn)展

關(guān)于政策對(duì)價(jià)格、產(chǎn)出，以及納稅人、消費(fèi)者和生產(chǎn)者福利作用的研究，涉及單一政策工具的使用，分析了系列農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策間的福利轉(zhuǎn)移和轉(zhuǎn)移效率問(wèn)題，涉及供給條件、要素供給彈性、要素成本分擔(dān)和要素之間的替代關(guān)系等。多數(shù)研究?jī)H涉及對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格、農(nóng)業(yè)投入要素市場(chǎng)有直接作用的農(nóng)業(yè)政策問(wèn)題的研究(Alston and James，2002)[23]。對(duì)于多數(shù)國(guó)家，GATT談判后，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易政策方面仍然留下了許多問(wèn)題，存在很多無(wú)效率的貿(mào)易條款。多哈會(huì)談、WTO談判對(duì)這些問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了部分修正，特別是在市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入、出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)等方面取得了進(jìn)展。下一輪的WTO談判為解決這些問(wèn)題提供了機(jī)會(huì)(Daniel A.Sumnerr，2002)[24]。各種因素引發(fā)的“市場(chǎng)失靈”都會(huì)作用于農(nóng)業(yè)。農(nóng)業(yè)的外部性表現(xiàn)在土地水分和營(yíng)養(yǎng)成分的流失；灌溉系統(tǒng)對(duì)自然水系的破壞；平流層臭氧的增加；農(nóng)藥殘留和食品添加劑使用過(guò)量等。由于農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，農(nóng)業(yè)政策需要在不完全競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的市場(chǎng)條件下設(shè)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)政策。農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)也存在信息的不對(duì)稱問(wèn)題，采用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)合同則可以激勵(lì)農(nóng)民降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的努力(Chambers，2002)[25]。不完全競(jìng)爭(zhēng)可能引發(fā)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中的低效率行為，使農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)量下降。如會(huì)出現(xiàn)高定價(jià)(產(chǎn)出)、低定價(jià)(投入)和過(guò)度投資現(xiàn)象(Sexton and Lavoie，2001)[26]。為達(dá)到糧食補(bǔ)貼政策的目標(biāo)，政府需要對(duì)現(xiàn)有生產(chǎn)狀態(tài)進(jìn)行精確統(tǒng)計(jì)，為了提高信用市場(chǎng)的效率，政府需要面對(duì)信息不完全和“隱匿信息”的問(wèn)題(Robbrt，2002)[27]。

5關(guān)于農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)研究的新進(jìn)展

在農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方面，根據(jù)Ravallion(2007)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，發(fā)展中國(guó)家農(nóng)業(yè)人口占總?cè)丝诘谋壤s為70—75%[28]。農(nóng)業(yè)是發(fā)展中國(guó)家的重要產(chǎn)業(yè)，主要出口產(chǎn)品是農(nóng)產(chǎn)品，農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)值占GDP的15—30%左右，農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率直接影響國(guó)家的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)，影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)(World Development Indicators，2009)[29]。有學(xué)者借助跨國(guó)界的時(shí)間序列分析尋找農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的相關(guān)性，認(rèn)為農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有相關(guān)性，但相關(guān)關(guān)系不確定。在開(kāi)放食物進(jìn)口的條件下認(rèn)為，資源向工業(yè)部門的流動(dòng)可以帶來(lái)高速的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，這一觀點(diǎn)被實(shí)施工業(yè)化戰(zhàn)略的國(guó)家采用(Temple，2005；Vollrath，2009)[30]。有學(xué)者(Irz，2002)分析了農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率提高與貧困緩解之間的關(guān)系，認(rèn)為農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率提高對(duì)緩解貧困比其他部門生產(chǎn)率提高更加有效[31]；有學(xué)者(Gardner and Tsakok，2007)[32]找到了農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間關(guān)系的證據(jù)，但同時(shí)指出，僅從數(shù)據(jù)分析上不能確定兩者之間的因果關(guān)系。面對(duì)使用現(xiàn)實(shí)數(shù)據(jù)無(wú)法確定兩者的相關(guān)性的問(wèn)題，有學(xué)者(Gollin，2004)提出從歷史數(shù)據(jù)中尋找答案，基本研究結(jié)論是：幾乎所有國(guó)家的工業(yè)增長(zhǎng)都得益于農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率的提高，但農(nóng)業(yè)悲觀主義的學(xué)者認(rèn)為，沒(méi)有證據(jù)可以說(shuō)明農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率提高將會(huì)帶來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)[33]。農(nóng)產(chǎn)品是基本消費(fèi)品，直接影響勞動(dòng)效率；大量工業(yè)品用于農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)提高了農(nóng)業(yè)交易成本。對(duì)于土地稀缺的國(guó)家，提高農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率保障食物供應(yīng)的自給率很重要，這是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的基礎(chǔ)(Gollin and Rogerson，2009)[34]。農(nóng)業(yè)可以直接提高收入、保障糧食安全、緩解貧困、改變性別歧視、提供優(yōu)美的生態(tài)環(huán)境(FAO，2004)[35]。農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的間接作用是改善了國(guó)民營(yíng)養(yǎng)水平，提升人口受教育比例，任何忽視農(nóng)業(yè)間接作用的農(nóng)業(yè)重要性評(píng)估都是不公正的(Valdes and Foster，2005)[36]有學(xué)者認(rèn)為，農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率提高有利于緩解貧困，如亞洲農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率提高15%，可以使貧困率下降0.485。在南亞地區(qū)，農(nóng)業(yè)部門的貧困彈性高于其他部門(World Bank，2007；Hasan and Quibria，2004)[37]。這些國(guó)家的農(nóng)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)主要是依靠采用先進(jìn)的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)技術(shù)(Thirtle,and Lin and Piesse，2003)[38]。農(nóng)業(yè)也提高了女性在社會(huì)中的地位，更有利于建設(shè)平等的社會(huì)(Gollin，2009)[39]。農(nóng)業(yè)氣候條件約束使土地資源利用效率低；制度障礙也阻礙了農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率的提高(Pingali，2006)[40]。但農(nóng)業(yè)收入的快速增長(zhǎng)、城市化、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易融入國(guó)際市場(chǎng)、新技術(shù)采用和對(duì)氣候條件適應(yīng)能力提高，給農(nóng)業(yè)新一輪發(fā)展帶來(lái)了機(jī)遇(Pingali，2006；Byerlee，2009；Pingali and McCullough，2009)[41]。農(nóng)業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)引發(fā)的食物結(jié)構(gòu)變化，增長(zhǎng)提高了農(nóng)村女性的城市就業(yè)率，也為農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整帶來(lái)了機(jī)遇(Pingali，2007)[42]。

6關(guān)于研究方法的新進(jìn)展

西方農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者認(rèn)為，農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究方法本身就是農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論研究的根本問(wèn)題。不同時(shí)期的農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中使用的方法不同，研究理論及其研究方法的演進(jìn)，并找出問(wèn)題有利于尋求發(fā)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)新的發(fā)展方向。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)數(shù)量化研究方法，必然涉及到它的數(shù)學(xué)性。做為應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的一個(gè)分支——農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)也有明顯的“數(shù)學(xué)化”傾向。步驟一：運(yùn)用公理化方法得出純農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論的最初分析結(jié)構(gòu)，并進(jìn)行規(guī)律分析。數(shù)理分析是把農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題“翻譯”成數(shù)學(xué)方程，然后進(jìn)行數(shù)學(xué)推導(dǎo)并得出結(jié)論。農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題“翻譯”成數(shù)學(xué)方程是依據(jù)觀察結(jié)果寫(xiě)成數(shù)學(xué)模型，進(jìn)行數(shù)學(xué)推導(dǎo)并得出結(jié)論是對(duì)模型實(shí)施的數(shù)學(xué)演算。數(shù)理分析能否揭示農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展規(guī)律，主要取決于數(shù)學(xué)模型是否表述了規(guī)律，數(shù)學(xué)模型是形成數(shù)學(xué)語(yǔ)言的思考框架。數(shù)學(xué)運(yùn)算對(duì)思考框架的展示。建立數(shù)學(xué)模型只有遵從了準(zhǔn)確的范式，才能使研究結(jié)果具有解釋力、預(yù)見(jiàn)力、啟發(fā)力和規(guī)范力，現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的數(shù)理分析格外強(qiáng)調(diào)對(duì)范式的表述和對(duì)范式的理解。步驟二：測(cè)度并精確化展示。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)認(rèn)識(shí)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)動(dòng)的基本規(guī)律是逐步進(jìn)行的。農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的數(shù)理分析只完成了這個(gè)思考過(guò)程的第一步。數(shù)理分析結(jié)果必須發(fā)展為更精確研究才能完成最后認(rèn)定，對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律準(zhǔn)確性的認(rèn)識(shí)還要取決于對(duì)數(shù)量的精確識(shí)別，因?yàn)閮H從數(shù)理分析結(jié)果中還不能清楚地認(rèn)識(shí)規(guī)律。數(shù)理分析結(jié)果給出了規(guī)律組成成分的界限、分類和單位，也明確了計(jì)算的意義。測(cè)度計(jì)量是數(shù)理分析的延伸，其基本目標(biāo)是展開(kāi)測(cè)度計(jì)算，并通過(guò)數(shù)據(jù)把規(guī)律由定性的邏輯結(jié)構(gòu)推向定量的數(shù)值結(jié)構(gòu)，更精確地展示使準(zhǔn)確性規(guī)律。農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)數(shù)理分析屬于純理論研究，測(cè)度計(jì)量是后續(xù)的試驗(yàn)研究。測(cè)度計(jì)量結(jié)果是得出一個(gè)數(shù)量表達(dá)經(jīng)驗(yàn)公式?，F(xiàn)代計(jì)算技術(shù)條件下，只要有必要的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)支持是可以實(shí)現(xiàn)的。測(cè)度計(jì)量是單純的方法可以服務(wù)于任何數(shù)據(jù)。測(cè)度計(jì)量在農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中可以服務(wù)于經(jīng)驗(yàn)概念，同樣也服務(wù)于推理。步驟三：檢驗(yàn)真實(shí)性。一個(gè)學(xué)科的科學(xué)性或其發(fā)展?fàn)顩r要以實(shí)驗(yàn)觀察的成果來(lái)反映。邏輯性和精確性不一定能說(shuō)明規(guī)律的存在，只有通過(guò)實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)才能給出證明。農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)手段主要有兩種：即可控制實(shí)驗(yàn)和實(shí)地觀察?？煽貙?shí)驗(yàn)為高級(jí)的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)方法，實(shí)地觀察(實(shí)證)為初級(jí)的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)方法。農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)只有在數(shù)理分析和測(cè)度計(jì)量的引導(dǎo)下才具創(chuàng)新功能。只有可以證明的結(jié)論才是規(guī)律，才屬于科學(xué)的真理。農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)踐結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜，運(yùn)動(dòng)周期長(zhǎng)，科學(xué)能力弱，可控實(shí)驗(yàn)一直沒(méi)有明顯的進(jìn)展。電子計(jì)算機(jī)技術(shù)已經(jīng)被引入到農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究，使農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)進(jìn)一步科學(xué)化。在農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的研究獲取現(xiàn)實(shí)的數(shù)據(jù)方面，實(shí)地觀察的實(shí)測(cè)性是任何其他手段都不能替代的，能獲得“第一手”資料的經(jīng)驗(yàn)相當(dāng)重要。但“第一手”資料并不具有第一的作用?？煽貙?shí)驗(yàn)發(fā)展將取代“第一手”資料的方法。

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