征收環(huán)境稅對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和污染排放的影響

秦昌波+王金南+葛察忠+高樹婷+劉倩倩

摘要資源短缺、環(huán)境容量有限已經(jīng)成為我國(guó)國(guó)情新的基本特征，而我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量將繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大，資源環(huán)境壓力將持續(xù)加大。開(kāi)征環(huán)境稅被認(rèn)為是減少污染排放和促進(jìn)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)型的有效經(jīng)濟(jì)政策之一。本文利用GREAT-E模型分析環(huán)境稅改革后不同稅率水平對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、污染減排、收入水平、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)和要素需求的影響，為制定相關(guān)的環(huán)境稅制度和政策提供決策支持依據(jù)。模擬結(jié)果表明，征收環(huán)境稅對(duì)中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響非常有限，GDP的下降在可承受的范圍之內(nèi);相對(duì)而言，征收環(huán)境稅對(duì)污染物的減排作用遠(yuǎn)大于對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的抑制作用，較高稅率的環(huán)境稅能夠較大幅度的減少污染物的排放。模擬結(jié)果表明，征收環(huán)境稅有利于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化調(diào)整，重污染行業(yè)受到抑制，而清潔產(chǎn)業(yè)反而加快發(fā)展。征收環(huán)境稅會(huì)抑制重污染產(chǎn)品出口，提升清潔行業(yè)的出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，降低貿(mào)易順差對(duì)我國(guó)環(huán)境的影響。這主要是因?yàn)橹匚廴拘袠I(yè)因?yàn)槌杀镜脑黾樱瑴p少了生產(chǎn)規(guī)模，釋放出的資本和勞動(dòng)力等要素資源被轉(zhuǎn)移到了清潔產(chǎn)業(yè)，從而促進(jìn)了這些產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。征收環(huán)境稅在增加政府收入的同時(shí)會(huì)對(duì)居民福利產(chǎn)生一定的負(fù)面影響，但是考慮到污染減排能夠帶來(lái)環(huán)境質(zhì)量的改善，進(jìn)而產(chǎn)生正面的居民福利效應(yīng)和社會(huì)效應(yīng)，環(huán)境稅征收產(chǎn)生的社會(huì)負(fù)面影響實(shí)際上要小于模擬結(jié)果。為了促進(jìn)環(huán)境成本內(nèi)部化，建議提高污染稅/費(fèi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。由于現(xiàn)有排污收費(fèi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏低，遠(yuǎn)低于污染治理成本，很多企業(yè)寧愿繳納排污費(fèi)也不愿意治理污染。因此未來(lái)開(kāi)征環(huán)境稅應(yīng)將稅率應(yīng)至少與治理成本相當(dāng)，通過(guò)將環(huán)境成本完全內(nèi)部化，達(dá)到促進(jìn)污染者減少污染排放的目標(biāo)。另一方面，建議政府通過(guò)減免所得稅或者向弱勢(shì)群體提供補(bǔ)貼等方式減少環(huán)境稅征收的負(fù)面影響。

關(guān)鍵詞環(huán)境稅;排污收費(fèi);可計(jì)算一般均衡模型;經(jīng)濟(jì)影響

中圖分類號(hào)X196文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼A

文章編號(hào)1002-2104（2015）01-0017-07doi：10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2015.01.003

資源相對(duì)短缺、環(huán)境容量有限已經(jīng)成為我國(guó)國(guó)情新的基本特征，而我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量將繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大，資源環(huán)境壓力將持續(xù)加大。開(kāi)征環(huán)境稅是促進(jìn)我國(guó)節(jié)能減排和發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)型的有效環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)手段之一。2011年10月國(guó)務(wù)院印發(fā)《關(guān)于加強(qiáng)環(huán)境保護(hù)重點(diǎn)工作的意見(jiàn)（國(guó)發(fā)〔2011〕35號(hào)）》提出“積極推進(jìn)環(huán)境稅費(fèi)改革，研究開(kāi)征環(huán)境保護(hù)稅”，為我國(guó)環(huán)境稅的制定和實(shí)施提供了契機(jī)。

1背景

環(huán)境稅最早是在上世紀(jì)二十年代由英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Arthur C.Pigou在其外部性研究理論中提出，Pigou認(rèn)為要使環(huán)境成本內(nèi)部化，需要政府采取稅收或補(bǔ)貼的形式來(lái)對(duì)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行干預(yù)，是私人邊際成本與社會(huì)邊際成本相一致。形成于上世紀(jì)60年代末的“污染者付費(fèi)原則（the Polluter Pays Principle）”為環(huán)境稅征稅對(duì)象的確定提供了理論依據(jù)。該原則出發(fā)點(diǎn)是商品價(jià)格應(yīng)充分體現(xiàn)生產(chǎn)成本和消耗的資源，利用經(jīng)濟(jì)手段將污染防治的資源重新分配以減少污染、合理使用環(huán)境資源。

環(huán)境稅有利于推動(dòng)污染排放產(chǎn)生的外部負(fù)效應(yīng)內(nèi)部化，促使經(jīng)濟(jì)主體自覺(jué)地通過(guò)成本效益分析，加強(qiáng)污染治理或者采用更清潔的生產(chǎn)工藝，從而減少污染物的排放。但是征收環(huán)境稅將會(huì)在一定程度上影響生產(chǎn)成本、商品供應(yīng)與需求，從而對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和居民福利等方面造成一定影響。因此，環(huán)境稅收政策在具體應(yīng)用前，需要回答一系列根本的問(wèn)題：什么是合理的環(huán)境稅稅率水平？環(huán)境稅會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)的污染排放造成什么影響？對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成什么樣的總體影響？對(duì)中國(guó)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)有何影響？等。

可計(jì)算一般均衡模型（CGE，Computable General ?Equilibrium Model）作為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)領(lǐng)域有效的實(shí)證分析工具，能夠?yàn)榛卮鹕鲜鰡?wèn)題提供有力支持，為環(huán)境稅征收的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響和環(huán)境影響提供定量分析手段。武亞軍和宣曉偉[1]構(gòu)建了一個(gè)硫稅靜態(tài)CGE模型，進(jìn)行中國(guó)硫稅政策效果模擬分析。結(jié)果表明：征收硫稅會(huì)給我國(guó)GDP帶來(lái)負(fù)效應(yīng)，但卻有利于能源結(jié)構(gòu)和經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整，大大降低二氧化硫的排放。王燦等[2]利用CGE模型研究二氧化碳減排的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響，發(fā)現(xiàn)碳稅會(huì)使煤和天然氣產(chǎn)量大幅下降，使用和電力行業(yè)產(chǎn)量將上升以滿足總的能源需求。龐軍等[3]根據(jù)“能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境”CGE模型模擬了中國(guó)征收燃油稅的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。Qin et al[4]利用環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)一般均衡分析系統(tǒng)（GREATE，GeneRal Eqiulibrium Analysis sysTem for Environment）分析了水污染物總量控制目標(biāo)和排污交易政策的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。Qin et al[5]將水資源作為一種生產(chǎn)要素納入CGE模型中開(kāi)發(fā)了水資源一般均衡分析系統(tǒng)（GREATW，GeneRal Eqiulibrium Analysis sysTem for Water），分析了提高水資源費(fèi)征收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和水資源利用效率的影響。Qin et al[6]利用多區(qū)域水資源CGE模型分析了京津冀地區(qū)減少地下水超采、南水北調(diào)和用水再分配多項(xiàng)政策措施對(duì)不同區(qū)域和不同行業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。本文利用GREATE模型分析環(huán)境稅改革后不同稅率水平對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、污染減排、收入水平、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)和要素需求的影響，為制定相關(guān)的環(huán)境稅制度和政策提供決策支持服務(wù)。

秦昌波等：征收環(huán)境稅對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和污染排放的影響

中國(guó)人口·資源與環(huán)境2015年第1期

2數(shù)據(jù)與方法

2.1GREATE模型簡(jiǎn)介

GREATE模型利用基于通用代數(shù)模型系統(tǒng)（GAMS，General Algebraic Modeling System）的一般均衡數(shù)學(xué)編程系統(tǒng)（MPSGE，Mathematical Program System for General Equilibrium）開(kāi)發(fā)而成[7]。GREATE模型包含了新古典靜態(tài)CGE模型的一般結(jié)構(gòu)[8]。圖1給出了GREATE模型的基本結(jié)構(gòu)。模型的建模基本思想是模擬宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中生產(chǎn)引發(fā)收入、收入產(chǎn)生需求，需求帶動(dòng)生產(chǎn)的循環(huán)過(guò)程。在生產(chǎn)的過(guò)程中，生產(chǎn)部門不是價(jià)格的決策者而是價(jià)格的接受者，因此企業(yè)（部門）必須在一定的技術(shù)條件下，按照成本利潤(rùn)最大化或者既定利潤(rùn)成本最小化的原則來(lái)進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)決策。決策在生產(chǎn)可能性邊界約束下，按收入最大化原則確定該部門產(chǎn)出中用于內(nèi)銷和出口的相對(duì)份額構(gòu)成。在規(guī)模不變的假設(shè)下，各部門的總產(chǎn)出不能由生產(chǎn)者決定，而是由均衡條件決定。即生產(chǎn)者需要進(jìn)行投入決策，要在該部門總的均衡條件決定的前提下，選擇中間投入和要素有效投入水平，使生產(chǎn)成本最小化。模型假定一種商品只能被一個(gè)生產(chǎn)者所生產(chǎn)。模型中采用多層嵌套的CES函數(shù)來(lái)描述生產(chǎn)要素之間的不同替代性。在第一層次，最終產(chǎn)出有合成中間投入和合成要素稟賦的組合決定，采用CES函數(shù)來(lái)描述其替代性。在第二層次，合成中間投入采用Leontief函數(shù)描述為對(duì)各部門中間產(chǎn)品的需求;而要素稟賦合成束采用CES函數(shù)描述污染排放和資本-勞動(dòng)力合成束的組合。在第三層次，采用Leontief函數(shù)描述各部門對(duì)不同污染物的需求，資本-勞動(dòng)力合成束則采用CES函數(shù)描述資本和勞動(dòng)力之間的組合關(guān)系。勞動(dòng)力、資本可以根據(jù)研究的需要做進(jìn)一步的分解。生產(chǎn)中各種要素間可替代的程度取決于它們的替代彈性和在基準(zhǔn)年生產(chǎn)過(guò)程中的份額。模型采用Armington假設(shè)來(lái)描述進(jìn)口商品和國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)品之間的不完全替代關(guān)系，通過(guò)CES函數(shù)描述最終消費(fèi)在最小化成本的原則下，對(duì)進(jìn)口商品和國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)品之間的優(yōu)化選擇。生產(chǎn)者生產(chǎn)出的產(chǎn)品根據(jù)收入最大化原則按CET函數(shù)在出口與國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)間分配。

圖1GREATE模型的基本結(jié)構(gòu)

Fig.1General structure of GREATE Model

2.2環(huán)境社會(huì)核算矩陣

要利用CGE模型開(kāi)展政策模擬，就需要有高質(zhì)量的數(shù)據(jù)集作支撐，數(shù)據(jù)問(wèn)題在求解CGE模型過(guò)程中發(fā)揮著舉足輕重的作用。一般均衡模型全面反映了社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)各個(gè)主體間的經(jīng)濟(jì)行為和經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系，因此在模型中變量初始值的確定、方程中參數(shù)的標(biāo)定，必然涉及社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中各方面大量的數(shù)據(jù)，這些數(shù)據(jù)反映了國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值核算、投入產(chǎn)出核算、資金流量核算、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債核算和國(guó)際收支核算五項(xiàng)內(nèi)容。社會(huì)核算矩陣是一定時(shí)期內(nèi)（通常是一年）對(duì)一國(guó)（或者一個(gè)地區(qū)）經(jīng)濟(jì)的全面描述。社會(huì)核算矩陣把投入產(chǎn)出表和國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)核算表結(jié)合在一起，整合到一張表上，全面描述了整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的圖景，它反映了經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)一般均衡的基本特點(diǎn)，為CGE模型提供了必要而完備的數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)。

由于我國(guó)缺乏官方發(fā)布的SAM表，同時(shí)，傳統(tǒng)SAM表沒(méi)有包含污染排放賬戶。因此，本研究以國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)投入產(chǎn)出表為主要數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源，通過(guò)增加非生產(chǎn)性機(jī)構(gòu)賬戶（如居民、政府、國(guó)外等）構(gòu)建社會(huì)核算矩陣。然后，通過(guò)單列環(huán)境污染排放要素賬戶，設(shè)計(jì)并編制能夠反映污染排放與經(jīng)濟(jì)部門之間全面數(shù)量關(guān)系的環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化社會(huì)核算矩陣，從而將環(huán)境系統(tǒng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)統(tǒng)一在一個(gè)框架下。本研究利用2007年中國(guó)135部門投入產(chǎn)出表將國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)合并為16個(gè)行業(yè)部門，部門列表見(jiàn)表1所示。

生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)、商品、出口和進(jìn)口賬戶數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源于2007年中國(guó)投入產(chǎn)出表，政府收入和支出數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源于《中國(guó)財(cái)政年鑒2008》[9]，稅收數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源《中國(guó)稅務(wù)年鑒2008》[10]，家

庭儲(chǔ)蓄和政府儲(chǔ)蓄數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源于《中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒2008》的資

金流量表[11]?；瘜W(xué)需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物的排放量及排污收費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源于《中國(guó)環(huán)境統(tǒng)計(jì)年報(bào)2007》[12]。本研究編制的中國(guó)2007年環(huán)境社會(huì)核算矩陣簡(jiǎn)表見(jiàn)表2所示。

3稅率情景設(shè)置

我國(guó)現(xiàn)行排污費(fèi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)低于污染治理成本和污染損害成本。根據(jù)現(xiàn)行的排污收費(fèi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，化學(xué)需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物的征收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分別只有0.7元/kg、0.875元/kg、0.63 元/kg和0.63 元/kg。無(wú)論繼續(xù)執(zhí)行現(xiàn)行的排污收費(fèi)政策還是將來(lái)出臺(tái)環(huán)境稅，我國(guó)都面臨提高征收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的現(xiàn)實(shí)選擇。為了評(píng)估征收環(huán)境稅對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和污染減排的影響，本研究設(shè)置1個(gè)基準(zhǔn)情景和4個(gè)模擬情景進(jìn)行分析?；鶞?zhǔn)情景假設(shè)環(huán)境稅征收稅率平移目前的排污收費(fèi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，模擬情景假設(shè)環(huán)境稅征收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)相比現(xiàn)有排污收費(fèi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分別提高2倍、4倍、6倍和8倍，具體征收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)見(jiàn)表3。

4結(jié)果與討論

4.1對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和污染減排的影響

征收環(huán)境稅對(duì)實(shí)際GDP的影響非常小，但能取得相對(duì)明顯的污染減排效果。從表4給出得模擬結(jié)果來(lái)看，在環(huán)境稅征收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)提高2倍、4倍、6倍和8倍的情況下，實(shí)際GDP僅分別下降0.018，0.055，0.092和0.128個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。相對(duì)GDP的輕微下降幅度來(lái)講，征收環(huán)境稅對(duì)減少污染物排放的作用較為明顯。在環(huán)境稅征收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)提高8倍的情況下，COD、氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物的總排放量分別減少0.5%、0.2%、1.9%和1.7%?？傮w來(lái)看，征收環(huán)境稅對(duì)大氣污染物的減排作用大于水污染物。這主要是因?yàn)榇髿馕廴疚锏呐欧帕看笥谒廴疚锏呐欧帕?，較高的大氣污染環(huán)境稅征收抑制大氣污染排放強(qiáng)度高的行業(yè)發(fā)展的同時(shí)，促進(jìn)了大氣污染排放強(qiáng)度低的行業(yè)發(fā)展。而一些大氣污染排放強(qiáng)度低的行業(yè)可能排放較大強(qiáng)度的水污染物，這會(huì)對(duì)水污染物的減排產(chǎn)生抵消作用。

征收環(huán)境稅會(huì)導(dǎo)致進(jìn)出口總量的下降。環(huán)境稅的征收推高產(chǎn)品銷售價(jià)格，從而影響產(chǎn)品的出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。在環(huán)境稅提高到現(xiàn)行排污費(fèi)征收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的8倍時(shí)，總出口會(huì)面臨0.38個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的下降。由于國(guó)內(nèi)需求的下降，總進(jìn)口也會(huì)出現(xiàn)一定幅度的下降。在環(huán)境稅提高到現(xiàn)行排污費(fèi)征收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的8倍時(shí)，總進(jìn)口會(huì)下降0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

征收環(huán)境稅會(huì)減少居民可支配收入，但能顯著增加政府收入。過(guò)高的環(huán)境稅征收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)會(huì)影響居民的收入，而且對(duì)農(nóng)村居民的影響高于城鎮(zhèn)居民，表明環(huán)境稅的征收對(duì)相對(duì)弱勢(shì)的群體影響更為明顯。這主要是因?yàn)榄h(huán)境稅推高了消費(fèi)品價(jià)格，弱勢(shì)群體對(duì)物價(jià)上漲的承受能力更弱。在環(huán)境稅提高到現(xiàn)行排污費(fèi)征收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的8倍時(shí)，政府財(cái)政收入能夠提高4.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。政府收入的增加使得政府有財(cái)力通過(guò)減免所得稅或者為弱勢(shì)群體提供補(bǔ)貼來(lái)減少環(huán)境稅征收給居民福利帶來(lái)的負(fù)面影響。

4.2對(duì)行業(yè)生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響

表5列出了我國(guó)征收環(huán)境稅時(shí)各行業(yè)產(chǎn)出水平和產(chǎn)出價(jià)格的變化百分比。就產(chǎn)出水平而言，征收環(huán)境稅會(huì)抑制污染排放強(qiáng)度的大的行業(yè)，而且稅率越高，抑制作用越明顯;對(duì)于污染強(qiáng)度較小的行業(yè)，征收環(huán)境稅反而會(huì)促進(jìn)其發(fā)展。產(chǎn)出水平下降幅度最大的行業(yè)是電力行業(yè)，其次是畜禽養(yǎng)殖、采掘業(yè)、食品業(yè)和化工產(chǎn)業(yè)。從價(jià)格水平變化情況來(lái)看，價(jià)格增加較大的行業(yè)往往也是產(chǎn)出水平下降較大的行業(yè)。電子通信與儀器儀表產(chǎn)業(yè)、服務(wù)業(yè)是產(chǎn)出水平增長(zhǎng)較大的行業(yè)，這主要是因?yàn)橐恍└呶廴拘袠I(yè)的生產(chǎn)受到抑制后，資本和勞動(dòng)力被轉(zhuǎn)移到了這些相對(duì)清潔的產(chǎn)業(yè)。對(duì)于種植業(yè)和林業(yè)，盡管并不征收環(huán)境稅，但由于產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)度較為密切的畜禽養(yǎng)殖、食品和服裝紡織等行業(yè)產(chǎn)出水平的下降降低了對(duì)其產(chǎn)品的畜禽，其產(chǎn)出水平也出現(xiàn)了較大幅度的下降。

4.3對(duì)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的影響

征收環(huán)境稅會(huì)抑制重污染產(chǎn)品出口，提升清潔行業(yè)的出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，降低貿(mào)易順差對(duì)我國(guó)環(huán)境的影響。表6列出了我國(guó)征收環(huán)境稅時(shí)各行業(yè)進(jìn)出口相比征稅之前的變化百分比。畜禽養(yǎng)殖、采掘業(yè)、木材加工及造紙印刷業(yè)、石油冶煉及加工業(yè)、化學(xué)工業(yè)、非金屬礦物制造業(yè)、金屬冶煉及制品業(yè)等重污染行業(yè)的出口下降明顯，而且稅率越高，出口下降幅度越大。而電子通信及儀器儀表產(chǎn)業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)出口增加明顯，在環(huán)境稅提高到現(xiàn)行排污費(fèi)征收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的8倍時(shí)，其增長(zhǎng)幅度分別達(dá)到2.1和1.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。由于環(huán)境稅的征收改變了國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)，國(guó)內(nèi)需求的變化導(dǎo)致進(jìn)口結(jié)構(gòu)也產(chǎn)生了相應(yīng)的變化。

4.4對(duì)要素需求結(jié)構(gòu)的影響

總體來(lái)看，征收環(huán)境稅將促進(jìn)勞動(dòng)力和資本等要素從

高污染行業(yè)向低污染行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移。表7列出了我國(guó)征收環(huán)境稅時(shí)各行業(yè)勞動(dòng)力投入及資本投入相比征稅之前的變化百分比。電力、畜禽養(yǎng)殖、木材加工及造紙印刷業(yè)、食品產(chǎn)業(yè)是要素投入下降最大的四個(gè)行業(yè)。而電子通信與儀器儀表產(chǎn)業(yè)、裝備制造、服務(wù)業(yè)等行業(yè)的要素投入則增加明顯。主要是因?yàn)檫@些行業(yè)污染強(qiáng)度低，可以吸納重污染行業(yè)釋放出的勞動(dòng)力和資本加快自身發(fā)展。

5結(jié)論

本文利用GREAT-E模型分析環(huán)境稅改革后不同稅率水平對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、污染減排、收入水平、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)和要素需求的影響。模擬結(jié)果表明，征收環(huán)境稅對(duì)中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響非常有限，GDP的下降在可承受的范圍之內(nèi)。相對(duì)而言，征收環(huán)境稅對(duì)污染物的減排作用遠(yuǎn)大于對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的抑制作用。較高稅率的環(huán)境稅能夠較大幅度的減少污染物的排放。征收環(huán)境稅在增加政府收入的同時(shí)會(huì)對(duì)居民福利產(chǎn)生一定的負(fù)面影響。但是考慮到污染減排能夠帶來(lái)環(huán)境質(zhì)量的改善，進(jìn)而產(chǎn)生正面的居民福利效應(yīng)和社會(huì)效應(yīng)，環(huán)境稅征收產(chǎn)生的社會(huì)負(fù)面影響實(shí)際上要小于模擬結(jié)果。

征收環(huán)境稅會(huì)對(duì)不同的行業(yè)產(chǎn)生不同的影響，重污染行業(yè)受到抑制，而清潔產(chǎn)業(yè)反而加快發(fā)展。這主要是因?yàn)橹匚廴拘袠I(yè)因?yàn)槌杀镜脑黾?，減少了生產(chǎn)規(guī)模，釋放出的資本和勞動(dòng)力等要素資源被轉(zhuǎn)移到了清潔產(chǎn)業(yè)，從而促進(jìn)了這些產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。

為了促進(jìn)環(huán)境成本內(nèi)部化，建議提高污染稅/費(fèi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。由于現(xiàn)有排污收費(fèi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏低，遠(yuǎn)低于污染治理成本，很多企業(yè)寧愿繳納排污費(fèi)也不愿意治理污染。因此未來(lái)開(kāi)征環(huán)境稅應(yīng)降稅率應(yīng)至少與治理成本相當(dāng)，促進(jìn)污染者減少污染排放。在環(huán)境稅開(kāi)征之前，則可以通過(guò)提高現(xiàn)有排污收費(fèi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，達(dá)到提高排污成本，促進(jìn)環(huán)境成本內(nèi)部化的目標(biāo)。另一方面，建議政府通過(guò)減免所得稅或者向弱勢(shì)群體提供補(bǔ)貼等方式減少環(huán)境稅征收的負(fù)面影響。

（編輯：王愛(ài)萍）

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Economic and Emission Impact Analysis of Reforming Chinas

Environmental Taxes System

QIN ChangboWANG JinnanGE ChazhongGAO ShutingLIU Qianqian

（Environmental Economic Institute， Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning， Beijing 100012， China）

AbstractResources shortage and limited environmental capacity have already been the new basic characters of Chinas national conditions. Whats more， the economy in China will continually develop and environmental pressure will be getting higher. Collecting environmental taxes is considered as one of the effective economic policies for reducing pollution emissions and promoting development transformation. To supply supporting evidences for relative policy making， this article uses GREATE model to analyze the influences of different tax rates on macro economy， pollution reduction， income level， industrial structure， trade structure and factor demand after reform of environmental taxes. The results of simulation show that collecting environmental taxes has a limited effect on Chinas macro economy and the decline of GDP is within a range that can be stood. Relatively speaking， the positive effect on pollution reduction is far beyond the inhibition effect on economic development. The results also illustrates collecting environmental taxes is good for structure adjustment， inhibition of heavy pollution industry and development of clean industry. Also， it will limit the export of heavy pollution products， boost the export competitiveness of clean products and the environmental impact of trade surplus will be reduced. Due to the increasing cost of heavy pollution industry and the reducing production scale， the releasing elements including capital and labor are transferred to clean industry， so that these industries will be vigorously developed. Collecting environmental taxes could increase government revenue while have a negative effect on residents welfare. But considering the changes of environmental quality brought by pollution reduction， as well as the positive resident welfare effect and social effect， the actual negative influence will be smaller than that in simulation result. To promote environmental cost internalization， it is suggested to increase the standard of pollution taxes/charges. Since the current standard of discharge fee is much lower than the cost of pollution control， most of enterprises prefer to pay for the fee instead of pollution control. So the environmental tax rate should be at least equal to the cost of pollution control， then pollution emissions will be reduced by environmental cost internalization. On the other hand， this article suggests government reduce the negative effects brought by collecting environmental taxes by income taxes reduction and subsidy supply for the disadvantaged.

Key wordsenvironmental taxation; effluent fee; CGE; economic impact

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Economic and Emission Impact Analysis of Reforming Chinas

Environmental Taxes System

QIN ChangboWANG JinnanGE ChazhongGAO ShutingLIU Qianqian

（Environmental Economic Institute， Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning， Beijing 100012， China）

AbstractResources shortage and limited environmental capacity have already been the new basic characters of Chinas national conditions. Whats more， the economy in China will continually develop and environmental pressure will be getting higher. Collecting environmental taxes is considered as one of the effective economic policies for reducing pollution emissions and promoting development transformation. To supply supporting evidences for relative policy making， this article uses GREATE model to analyze the influences of different tax rates on macro economy， pollution reduction， income level， industrial structure， trade structure and factor demand after reform of environmental taxes. The results of simulation show that collecting environmental taxes has a limited effect on Chinas macro economy and the decline of GDP is within a range that can be stood. Relatively speaking， the positive effect on pollution reduction is far beyond the inhibition effect on economic development. The results also illustrates collecting environmental taxes is good for structure adjustment， inhibition of heavy pollution industry and development of clean industry. Also， it will limit the export of heavy pollution products， boost the export competitiveness of clean products and the environmental impact of trade surplus will be reduced. Due to the increasing cost of heavy pollution industry and the reducing production scale， the releasing elements including capital and labor are transferred to clean industry， so that these industries will be vigorously developed. Collecting environmental taxes could increase government revenue while have a negative effect on residents welfare. But considering the changes of environmental quality brought by pollution reduction， as well as the positive resident welfare effect and social effect， the actual negative influence will be smaller than that in simulation result. To promote environmental cost internalization， it is suggested to increase the standard of pollution taxes/charges. Since the current standard of discharge fee is much lower than the cost of pollution control， most of enterprises prefer to pay for the fee instead of pollution control. So the environmental tax rate should be at least equal to the cost of pollution control， then pollution emissions will be reduced by environmental cost internalization. On the other hand， this article suggests government reduce the negative effects brought by collecting environmental taxes by income taxes reduction and subsidy supply for the disadvantaged.

Key wordsenvironmental taxation; effluent fee; CGE; economic impact

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Economic and Emission Impact Analysis of Reforming Chinas

Environmental Taxes System

QIN ChangboWANG JinnanGE ChazhongGAO ShutingLIU Qianqian

（Environmental Economic Institute， Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning， Beijing 100012， China）

AbstractResources shortage and limited environmental capacity have already been the new basic characters of Chinas national conditions. Whats more， the economy in China will continually develop and environmental pressure will be getting higher. Collecting environmental taxes is considered as one of the effective economic policies for reducing pollution emissions and promoting development transformation. To supply supporting evidences for relative policy making， this article uses GREATE model to analyze the influences of different tax rates on macro economy， pollution reduction， income level， industrial structure， trade structure and factor demand after reform of environmental taxes. The results of simulation show that collecting environmental taxes has a limited effect on Chinas macro economy and the decline of GDP is within a range that can be stood. Relatively speaking， the positive effect on pollution reduction is far beyond the inhibition effect on economic development. The results also illustrates collecting environmental taxes is good for structure adjustment， inhibition of heavy pollution industry and development of clean industry. Also， it will limit the export of heavy pollution products， boost the export competitiveness of clean products and the environmental impact of trade surplus will be reduced. Due to the increasing cost of heavy pollution industry and the reducing production scale， the releasing elements including capital and labor are transferred to clean industry， so that these industries will be vigorously developed. Collecting environmental taxes could increase government revenue while have a negative effect on residents welfare. But considering the changes of environmental quality brought by pollution reduction， as well as the positive resident welfare effect and social effect， the actual negative influence will be smaller than that in simulation result. To promote environmental cost internalization， it is suggested to increase the standard of pollution taxes/charges. Since the current standard of discharge fee is much lower than the cost of pollution control， most of enterprises prefer to pay for the fee instead of pollution control. So the environmental tax rate should be at least equal to the cost of pollution control， then pollution emissions will be reduced by environmental cost internalization. On the other hand， this article suggests government reduce the negative effects brought by collecting environmental taxes by income taxes reduction and subsidy supply for the disadvantaged.

Key wordsenvironmental taxation; effluent fee; CGE; economic impact