洗衣機(jī)揭示貿(mào)易與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的關(guān)聯(lián)

譯/劉潔茹 審訂/石小軍

American washing-machine makers received a parting gift from President Donald Trump.Days before leaving office, he extended tariffs on imported machines by two years.The move was a victory for Whirlpool, an appliance-maker that has sought protection for nearly a decade.The saga is a case study of the impact of protectionism on competition at home.

美國(guó)洗衣機(jī)制造商收到了總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普的臨別贈(zèng)禮。特朗普在行將離任前把進(jìn)口機(jī)器的征稅期限延長(zhǎng)了兩年。對(duì)于家電制造商惠而浦來說，這一贈(zèng)禮代表一種勝利，因?yàn)樗?0 年來一直在尋求政府保護(hù)。這一事件也反映出保護(hù)主義對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的影響。

2American businesses can ask the government for three types of protection from foreign rivals: anti-dumping duties1anti-dumping duty 反傾銷稅，指對(duì)傾銷商品所征收的進(jìn)口附加稅。, if imports are being sold below cost; countervailing duties2countervailing duty 反補(bǔ)貼稅，指對(duì)接受出口補(bǔ)貼或津貼的外國(guó)商品在進(jìn)口環(huán)節(jié)征收的一種進(jìn)口附加稅。, if foreign competition is subsidised; or safeguard tariffs3safeguard tariff 保障性關(guān)稅，指當(dāng)某類商品進(jìn)口數(shù)量劇增，對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)造成威脅或損害時(shí)實(shí)施的一般保障措施。, if imports are surging.Petitions succeed around 60% of the time; in 2016 just over 7% of America’s product lines were affected by a temporary trade barrier.(That compares with about 4%in the European Union.)

2為免受國(guó)外對(duì)手的威脅，美國(guó)企業(yè)可以向政府尋求三類保護(hù)：如果進(jìn)口商品的銷售價(jià)格低于成本，可尋求反傾銷稅保護(hù)；如果國(guó)外競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手享受到補(bǔ)貼，可尋求反補(bǔ)貼稅保護(hù)；如果進(jìn)口商品數(shù)量暴增，可尋求保障性關(guān)稅保護(hù)。成功獲得保護(hù)的概率目前約為60%；2016年，僅略超7%的美國(guó)產(chǎn)品線受到了臨時(shí)性貿(mào)易壁壘的影響。（與之相比，歐盟約有4%。）

3When Whirlpool first sought help in 2011, it accused its South Korean competitors, Samsung and LG, of selling at prices that were too low.(Its rivals said its failure to innovate was the problem.)The United States International Trade Commission (USITC), which follows trade-remedy law written to protect producers, not consumers, found for Whirlpool.That led to tariffs of up to 82%on some washing machines from South Korea and Mexico (where Samsung had a factory).

4Only six years before that, Whirlpool had used the promise of competition from Samsung and LG to justify consolidation at home.Trustbusters had been suspicious of its acquisition of Maytag, an American rival, which united more than 70% of domestic production of household washing machines.But, partly because they were assured of stiff foreign competition, they let the deal go ahead.William Kovacic, then a member of the Federal Trade Commission, was so peeved4peeved 惱怒的，生氣的。by the case that he now argues that merger approvals should require companies to waive5waive 放棄（權(quán)利、要求等）。their right to seek tariff protection.

32011 年，惠而浦第一次向美國(guó)政府尋求幫助，當(dāng)時(shí)它控告韓國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手三星和LG 以極低的價(jià)格銷售產(chǎn)品。（惠而浦的對(duì)手則認(rèn)為未能創(chuàng)新才是惠而浦的問題所在。）美國(guó)國(guó)際貿(mào)易委員會(huì)（USITC）遵照保護(hù)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)者而非消費(fèi)者的貿(mào)易救濟(jì)法，作出了有利于惠而浦的裁決，導(dǎo)致自韓國(guó)和墨西哥（三星在墨西哥有工廠）進(jìn)口的幾款洗衣機(jī)的關(guān)稅上漲至82%。

4這之前，就在2005 年，惠而浦曾以即將面臨來自三星和LG 的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)為由在國(guó)內(nèi)實(shí)施合并。當(dāng)時(shí)惠而浦通過收購(gòu)國(guó)內(nèi)對(duì)手美泰克，整合了國(guó)內(nèi)超過70%的家用洗衣機(jī)市場(chǎng)，反托拉斯者曾對(duì)此提出質(zhì)疑。但他們最后還是默認(rèn)了這項(xiàng)合并，部分原因是他們確信來自國(guó)外的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)十分激烈。時(shí)任美國(guó)聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會(huì)委員威廉·科瓦契奇當(dāng)時(shí)就對(duì)合并感到非常憤怒，他現(xiàn)在主張，企業(yè)要想合并就必須放棄尋求關(guān)稅保護(hù)的權(quán)利。

5但惠而浦爭(zhēng)取到的關(guān)稅很容易規(guī)避。當(dāng)三星和LG 開始從中國(guó)的工廠向美國(guó)銷售洗衣機(jī)時(shí)，惠而浦又要求USITC對(duì)它們征稅。由于再次被控削價(jià)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，這兩家韓國(guó)企業(yè)提出抗議，表示“捆綁定價(jià)”歪曲了事實(shí)。洗衣機(jī)通常看起來利潤(rùn)很低，但事實(shí)上它們會(huì)與高利潤(rùn)的烘干機(jī)捆綁銷售。如果把洗衣機(jī)和烘干機(jī)看作一個(gè)整體，那么看起來回報(bào)非常低的洗衣機(jī)生意實(shí)際可能賺取足夠多的利潤(rùn)。而委員會(huì)再次作出了有利于惠而浦的裁決。

5But the duties Whirlpool had secured were easy to dodge.When Samsung and LG started sending machines from their factories in China to America, Whirlpool asked the USITC to hit imports from there, too.Accused of undercutting6undercut 以低于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的價(jià)格做生意，削價(jià)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。again, the South Korean firms protested that “bundled pricing”distorted the facts.Washing machines often looked like they were sold at low margins, but in fact were being bundled together with driers, which were sold at high margins.When seen as an integrated unit, an apparently low-return washing-machine business could in fact be making adequate profits.But the commission ruled in favour of Whirlpool again.

6然而，進(jìn)口洗衣機(jī)的原產(chǎn)地已轉(zhuǎn)向了泰國(guó)和越南。于是，惠而浦不再玩打地鼠游戲，即逮著冒頭的打，而是在2017年提出了一個(gè)更大膽的請(qǐng)求：不管進(jìn)口洗衣機(jī)來自哪里，均要對(duì)其征收保障性關(guān)稅。（這也是暫時(shí)性的，為的是給美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)時(shí)間提高自身競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。）USITC 建議，第一年對(duì)數(shù)量在120 萬臺(tái)以內(nèi)的進(jìn)口洗衣機(jī)征收20%的關(guān)稅，超過120 萬臺(tái)的則征稅50%，3 年內(nèi)逐步降低稅率?？偨y(tǒng)可以否決此類要求，但特朗普沒有這么做。

6The source of imports had already changed, though—to Thailand and Vietnam.So, rather than continue with the game of whack-a-mole, in 2017 Whirlpool made a bolder request: for a safeguard tariff, which hits imports whatever their source.(It is also temporary, to give domestic firms time to become competitive.) The USITC recommended tariffs of 20%, rising to 50%above a quota of 1.2m units in the first year, with the protection fading over three years.Presidents can veto such requests, but Mr.Trump did not.

72018 年2 月，新的限制條例開始實(shí)施。正如該條例所愿，美國(guó)進(jìn)口洗衣機(jī)數(shù)量下降，國(guó)產(chǎn)洗衣機(jī)數(shù)量增多。聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家亞倫·弗拉恩、芝加哥大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授阿里·霍爾塔奇蘇和費(fèi)利克斯·廷特爾諾特的研究顯示，洗衣機(jī)的零售價(jià)也上漲了，漲幅為12%；烘干機(jī)的價(jià)格同步上漲。此外，惠而浦進(jìn)行了一些投資，包括在俄亥俄州克萊德新建了一家員工培訓(xùn)中心。2019 年的一份關(guān)稅調(diào)查報(bào)告顯示，惠而浦的盈利能力有所提高。

7The new restrictions were implemented in February 2018.As the law intended, imports fell, and American production rose.According to a study by Aaron Flaaen of the Federal Reserve and Ali Horta?su and Felix Tintelnot of the University of Chicago, retail prices of washing machines also rose,by 12%—with those of dryers rising in step.Whirlpool made some investments, including in a new training centre7據(jù)查證相關(guān)資料，惠而浦在2018 年關(guān)稅政策實(shí)施后在克萊德的工廠新增了200 多個(gè)崗位，因而推定此處的training centre 系“員工培訓(xùn)中心”。in Clyde, Ohio.A review of the tariffs in 2019 found that its profitability increased.

8Yet Whirlpool came back for more.In November last year its lawyers complained that the tariff was meant to give it three fat years of profits to recover from the harm caused by imports.But Samsung and LG had brought in machines before the tariff came in, dampening its effect.Then came covid-19.Had the USITC known what market conditions would be, Whirlpool’s lawyers argued, it would surely have recommended greater protection.

9By then Samsung and LG had opened factories in America.(How much of this, and the resulting jobs,reflects the tariff is up for debate, but it may have speeded up the decision to set up shop in America.) The Korean firms argued that they were now part of the domestic industry—and did not need tariffs.They pointed out that the domestic industry was clearly thriving: around 80% of washing machines bought in America were now home-made.Still,the USITC decided that, without an extension, cheap imports would flood in.Mr.Trump did not disagree, so the tariffs will remain until 2023.(Whirlpool says the decision reflects its efforts to ensure fair trade and to protect employees.)

8但是，惠而浦又想要更多了。2020 年11 月，惠而浦的律師抱怨，這項(xiàng)關(guān)稅政策的本意是讓惠而浦過3 個(gè)利潤(rùn)豐年，以從進(jìn)口造成的傷害中恢復(fù)過來。但是，三星和LG 在此關(guān)稅政策實(shí)施前就已向美國(guó)出口洗衣機(jī)，因此關(guān)稅的作用被削弱了。之后，新冠疫情爆發(fā)。惠而浦的律師認(rèn)為，如果之前USITC 預(yù)料到了市場(chǎng)將發(fā)生怎樣的變化，必會(huì)建議實(shí)施更嚴(yán)厲的保護(hù)政策。

9此關(guān)稅政策實(shí)施前，三星和LG 已在美國(guó)開辦工廠。（開廠之舉及由此產(chǎn)生的工作崗位在多大程度上反映了關(guān)稅政策的影響還有待討論，但這可能加快了韓國(guó)企業(yè)在美開店的決策速度。）這兩家韓國(guó)企業(yè)認(rèn)為，他們現(xiàn)在屬于美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)，所以無須再繳進(jìn)口關(guān)稅。他們指出，美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)明顯趨向繁榮：在美國(guó)售出的洗衣機(jī)目前約80%系國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)。不過，USTIC 認(rèn)為，如果不延長(zhǎng)征稅期限，低價(jià)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品會(huì)大量涌入美國(guó)。特朗普對(duì)此表示認(rèn)同，遂將征稅期限延長(zhǎng)至2023 年。（惠而浦稱，此項(xiàng)決定反映了它為保證公平貿(mào)易和保護(hù)員工所做出的努力。）

10The result will be close to a decade of protection, arguably at the cost of customers’ wallets.But Whirlpool has little recourse for protection left, and now faces stiff competition at home.In November a representative of LG said its new factory in Tennessee had in some cases shrunk the gap between order and delivery from 12 weeks to a few days.Canny use of tariffs might help some producers some of the time.But competition cannot be avoided forever.■

10這一政策帶來的結(jié)果將是近10 年的貿(mào)易保護(hù)，可以說是以犧牲消費(fèi)者利益為代價(jià)的。但惠而浦沒有什么理由繼續(xù)請(qǐng)求政策保護(hù)了，目前它在國(guó)內(nèi)面臨激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。2020 年11 月，LG 的一名代表表示，在某些情況下，田納西州的LG 新工廠已將產(chǎn)品下單和派送之間的間隔從12 周縮減至幾天。巧妙利用關(guān)稅政策可能會(huì)在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)幫助一部分生產(chǎn)商。但是，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)不可能永久避免。 □