China’s Electric Vehicle Makers Target Europe

By Gregor Sebastian

Until recently， China-based carmakers had little economic incentive to push into overseas markets as surging domestic sales buoyed them up， tripling in eight years between 2008 and 2016. Some Chinese SOEs started exporting on a bigger scale in the mid-2000s， largely in response to government pressure to signal that Chinese cars were globally competitive.

Next came an export push from foreign carmakers manufacturing in China （from 2015 to 2019） that saw GM export China-made Buicks to the United States. It fizzled quickly when the Trump administration placed tariffs on China-made cars. Overall， Chinese automotive exports have remained small， in both relative and absolute terms. With the notable exception of the United States， most Chinese auto exports are to emerging markets.

However， this pattern could be about to change. A mixture of technological advances and structural changes in the global automotive industry has created a window of opportunity for global expansion by China-based carmakers. Several major disruptive technology driven trends， including electrification and autonomous driving， have the potential to fundamentally alter driving and automotive manufacturing. The automotive industry remains in flux， and established hierarchies are being called into question. Chinese policymakers recognize that it is an opportune time to jumpstart exports once more.

Electric vehicles offer a window of opportunity for chinas auto exports

China overtook the US to become the biggest automotive market and producer in 2009. One third of all vehicles are now produced in China. However， this success story has not yet translated into automotive exports. That is about to change as Chinese manufacturers have set their eyes on global markets； it is a strategy in which European markets and actors play a key role.

Chinas new export push is likely to focus on EVs2 and several factors indicate it may be more successful than before：

China is the leading EV market： Aided by substantial state support， China has become the biggest EV market. Chinese EV makers have leapfrogged entrenched carmakers to become front runners with internationally competitive products， including in luxury segments. Internationally successful Chinese battery makers like CATL serve as a role model for Chinese EV makers.

Domestic overcapacity： Chinas automotive and EV sectors already suffer from serious overcapacity， yet newcomers continue to enter the feld， including tech companies like Baidu and conglomerates like Evergrande. The result is fragmentation and increasing overcapacity. In 2020， 89 Chinese EV-producers averaged sales of only 15，000 units， while Chinas vehicle capacity utilization rate has been falling to 48.5% in 2020—which puts pressure on EV makers to export to achieve economies of scale.

National champion status： Chinese carmakers are eager to export to become the next national champion. In the rail sector， where China also wants to compete globally， the government has forced major SOEs to merge to give CRRC a competitive edge due to sheer size. A similar consolidation will occur in the EV sector once government subsidies end， so successful exports could give Chinese EV makers a chance to stand out.

Strong presence of foreign MNCs： Foreign multinational carmakers are starting to use China as an export hub. They are attracted by Chinas leading and dynamic EV market， local technologies and innovation capabilities and proximity to battery suppliers. Chinas government actively supports them in their export plans.

Chinas bet on electric vehicles and the involvement of foreign carmakers appears to be starting to pay off. The latest data shows that monthly exports have steadily increased since September 2020， with a record of 150，100 units exported in April， 2021. In April， EVs accounted for 16% of Chinas passenger car exports， of which 14，000 were Tesla models.

Chinas huge domestic market means it is unlikely ever to export as much of its output as Germany， Japan， or South Korea. However， it is feasible that China will export 10 to 15 percent of its output within the next 5 to 10 years， provided that both Chinese and foreign carmakers start to use China as an export base. If Chinas domestic market stays at around 25-30 million units， that could translate to 2.5 to 3.5 million exported units per year.

Chinas EV expansion centers on Europe

Europe has become the main destination for Chinas EV export push. Chinese EV makers are now trying to replicate domestic success in Europe， where an ambitious green agenda necessitates widespread EV adoption. European countries now offer high purchasing subsidies for EVs and there is increasing momentum for a European phase out of internal combustion engine（ICE） vehicles. Aside from China， Europe also has the most advanced charging infrastructure. Chinese EV makers use Norway as a bridge head to Europe， because EV adoption is most advanced there； 80% of new vehicles are EVs and various benefits and subsidies are in place to promote supply and demand， including no import taxes on EVs.

Politics also matter. Chinas government shares the EV makers view that it is crucial to make inroads into developed markets for prestige and branding. In addition， while European governments are increasingly concerned about the economic rise of China， they remain more welcoming to Chinese actors than the United States. Europe continues to be an attractive investment location for Chinese companies.

Chinese carmakers have established R&D and design centers in Europe to facilitate their entry into European markets. Doing so enables them to prepare for European regula- tions and to tailor software and design solutions to European customers. These R&D centers also work as a feedback-loop to China and can influence design decisions back home； for instance， NIO uses its Munich team to design its vehicles.

Chinas government has learned from the failed export push in the 2000s； it now helps Chinese carmakers to test their vehicles under European conditions. In 2019， the China Automobile Engineering Research Institute （CAERI） set up the first Euro NCAP co-approved test facility outside Europe. The new testing facility was established in Chongqings Liangjing New Area， a pilot area focused on promoting Chinese automotive exports. It enables Chinese carmakers to finetune their vehicles before exporting to Europe， thereby avoiding disastrous safety ratings. A second Chinese Euro NCAP testing facility has been established in 2021.

Aim to use first mover advantage to explore overseas markets

Chinas central government， local governments and Chinese companies are united in their drive to expand globally—albeit for different reasons. The government has set overarching global expansion and export targets and offers guidance and subsidies to carmakers in China. Chinese carmakers are pursuing different strategies such as exports or overseas greenfield investments to enter overseas markets.

Government guidance is driving the globalization of Chinas automotive sector

For the central government， the automotive industry is of strategic importance as its crucial to both the economy and national security. The government invests heavily （an estimated USD 58.7 billion between 2009 and 2017） in this sector due to its dual-use nature. So far， the investments have paid of， as China is now home to the worlds leading EV market. Next， it wants China to absorb larger parts of global value chains （GVCs）. That is the entire range of activities required to bring a product to the consumer， including R&D and production of key components such as batteries and smart car technologies.

Both this current export push and the previous one in the 2000s were guided by the central government. In the mid-2000s， the goal was to turn several automotive production hubs， such as Chongqing and Shenyang， into export bases. The central government has now given the provinces a freer rein. That means it is up to provincial governments to take initiative， publish automotive policies and incentivize local carmakers to export. Meanwhile， the central government encourages carmakers to establish overseas R&D centers， acquire foreign carmakers and use the window of opportunity offered by Chinas EV dominance to build exports.

Provincial governments push local carmakers to go abroad to gain growth for their regions

While the central government has refrained from consolidating the EV sector， local governments are not hesitating to pick winners. They are eager to gain status with central government by fulfilling targets， but their main incentive is to increase local investment and create jobs. They guide and encourage their local champions to go abroad to further drive sales and earn prestige. As long as production occurs in their turf， local governments are not too concerned about the ownership of their local champion.

Local governments in Guangdongs capital of Guangzhou and in Hefei， Anhui Province， have thrown their weight behind local champions which they support financially and in the case of NIO even saved from bankruptcy. Xpeng Motors is a Guangzhou-based EV maker， while NIO is headquartered in Shanghai but has built its vehicle-production R&D center in Hefei. Local subsidies have helped the EV makers to scale up production to serve global markets. And BMW is being wooed by Shenyang City in north-eastern Liaoning Province， which wants to become an important export base for the German carmaker.

Chinese EV makers accelerate export plans to tap into overseas EV demand

In recent months， Chinese EV makers have announced export and global expansion plans. Developed markets in Europe and North America are the main targets. The ownership of Chinese carmakers has diversified since the previous export push. EV makers are overwhelmingly private， although state ties remain strong. Chinese EV makers pursue different strategies to expand globally， ranging from exports to the acquisition of foreign companies.

Significant hurdles for Chinese EV makers remain

Failure seems inevitable for most of these Chinese EV firms. As Chinese carmakers leave the home environment， each strategy comes with strengths and weaknesses. Only those that successfully overcome the following hurdles will have a chance of success：

Lack of international experience： Most Chinese carmakers lack an overseas sales and after-sales service network. Without one， it is hard to attract customers， especially if they dont recognize the brand or fear complicated maintenance procedures.

The politicization of trade： Chinas economic rise will bring greater overseas scrutiny of Chinese EV-makers. Foreign governments have started to adopt new measures focused on procurement， investment， market access or tariffs that could impact Chinas EV makers.

Navigate local regulations： The mounting automatization of cars creates new regulations on data that could prove difficult for Chinese EV makers to navigate. Global trends to complicate data transfers abroad can create additional costs.

Challenge established local companies： The first-mover advantage held by Chinas EV makers is disappearing fast as entrenched carmakers start to churn out EV models. In Europe， Chinese EV makers will have to compete on home ground with major automotive producers like Daimler and Stellantis， the Dutch-based group formed from the 2021 merger of Fiat-Chrysler and French group PSA whose brands include Peugeot and Citroen.

China incorporates foreign carmakers into its export strategy

Chinas automotive export strategy also involves foreign carmakers， who view the leading EV market as a source of innovation that they can integrate into their global production layout.

In fact， they have advantages such as international experience， data on European and US consumers and larger networks that make them well suited to export more successfully than their Chinese counterparts. Chinas government has recognized this potential and seeks to use foreign carmakers to increase its share of global value chains.

Chinese policymakers supports foreign carmakers to absorb GVCs

China had initially hoped to imitate South Korea by forcing foreign carmakers into joint ventures （JVs）. It was a strategy that built up national champions through subsidies， picking winners and restricting market access for foreign manufacturers. However， Chinas SOEs have struggled to use JVs to build self-owned brands. Foreign carmakers now account for 60% of Chinas domestic automotive market. Their dominant position has created an impetus to include them in Chinas export strategy. If successful， the benefits of this strategy would stretch across the entire value chain including upstream industries such as steel， machinery， chemicals and electronics.

China has relegated its ambition to build national auto champions in favor of absorbing GVCs， fostering industrial upgrading and stimulating domestic innovation. The Made in China 2015 （MiC25） strategy launched in 2025 and the mid-tolong-term Automotive Plan （2017） specifically called for Chinese brands to become world leaders. However， more recent policies have shifted to prioritize using foreign carmakers as a catalyst to transform China into an automotive export hub.

Chinas innovative market attracts foreign carmakers to use it as an export hub

Previously， foreign carmakers mainly produced in China to sell in the Chinese market， but their motivations are starting to change. Lured by Chinas attractive EV market， foreign carmakers are starting to use the country as an export hub. For Tesla， China is already the “primary vehicle export hub”. BMW and Volvo have also started exporting to Europe， while others like Daimler are ramping up production and research capacities for export purposes and more are interested. For instance， GM26 has expressed interest and the Changan-Ford JVs Executive Vice President Zhao Fei has said that“China will become one of Fords most important export bases in the world in the future”. Volkswagen has not yet announced plans to export from China to Europe， but in 2018 it trialed exports to southeast Asia. In a nutshell， foreign carmakers no longer view China as a market where you can sell foreign， sometimes outdated， technology but now as one at the forefront of innovation. This change mainly stems from Chinas industrial policy that， to leapfrog advanced manufacturing countries， has guided consumers and producers to focus on EVs.

Foreign carmakers have an opportunity to export successfully from China

Foreign carmakers are establishing themselves as important exporters. According to Chinas Ministry of Commerce （MOFCOM）， foreign car- makers JVs accounted for nearly 30% of Chinas total automotive exports in 2020， up from 27% in 2019. This data excludes Tesla， a wholly foreign-owned entity that in May this year exported 14，000 EVs and 11，500 in June which amounts to 57.5% of Chinas total EV exports.

Indeed， foreign carmakers are well-positioned to outperform their Chinese competitors.

While Chinas EV makers can churn out high-quality vehicles， foreign carmakers are catching up fast. They possess international experience， data on European and US consumers， and a global sales and after-sales services network. Most importantly， compared to new comers like NIO and Xpeng， they have the necessary scale to produce and ship thousands of vehicles per month. Politically， they are less pressured to prioritize exports for exports sake， a factor that may bear down on Chinese EV makers. Hence， the export strategies of foreign carmakers are more likely to be attuned to actual market opportunities.

To support Chinas industrial upgrading and fuel economic growth， the central government wants to attract more foreign investment， particularly in the automotive sector and in innovation. MOFCOM is drawing up a five-year plan dedicated to increasing foreign investment.

Amid increasing geopolitical friction， Chinas policymakers have refrained from punishing foreign companies in the auto sector， which they view as important growth engines.

Chinas EV sector will change global production patterns

Chinas push to become an EV exporter is set to transform the global automotive sector. Chinas market has been shaping automotive trends for some years now， setting up trends that have rippled out into wider changes. China has surpassed its early status as the worlds manufacturing hub and is emerging as a global center of automotive innovation that will profoundly influence overseas markets.

Auto exports signal China is moving up the value chain： Overseas demand for high-quality， made in China goods， such as vehicles， is rising as acceptance has grown. In the EV sector， Chinese models have achieved high safety ratings and use technologies like battery swapping and autonomous driving that entrenched carmakers have not yet been mastered. For customers， Chinas advances are beneficial as increased competition helps to improve the quality of EVs overall. As first movers， Chinese EV makers also have an opportunity to influence global standard setting.

Chinese exports could shake up Europes auto sector： Chinese EV exports could deepen the divide between European companies present in China and those who are not. Firms that lack a presence in China will face greater competition from Chinese brands.

Europes competitiveness as an industrial location may be at risk： The European Commission regards the automotive sector as “crucial for Europes prosperity”. However， Chinese automotive exports could distort markets and threaten Europes industrial heartlands. Motor vehicle manufacturing employs 3.5 million people in the EU， they are the most directly threatened. For now， European EV sales rankings are topped mainly by European-made electric vehicles or Teslas. However， subsidy-supported Chinese EV exports are on the rise globally so Europes export-oriented auto sector may encounter problems.

Harmonizing the quest for absorbing global value chains and building national champions： For now， the EV market is growing rapidly， leaving ample room for foreign and Chinese carmakers to exist side-by-side. However， competition will increase rapidly as more players are entering the field and China is beginning to phase out subsidies.

For now， Chinas government is content to let foreign carmakers occupy a large share of the market in exchange for locating value chains in China. However， foreign carmakers should keep in mind that if Chinas government relegates their ambition to build national champions in favor of taking a greater share of global automotive supply chains， that choice is likely to be a temporary one.