徐曈暉 李洋 霍若冰 王磊明
摘 要:測定在4、15 、25 ℃儲藏溫度下藍莓的硬度、失重率、腐爛率和可滴定酸含量4 種指標品質隨時間的變化情況,結合試驗人員對藍莓感官指標的評分,建立藍莓消費者整體滿意度快速預測模型,提升藍莓消費者的購買滿意度。結果表明,藍莓質量隨儲藏時間呈下降趨勢,較低的儲藏溫度能減緩品質下降幅度;對參數(shù)進行逐步回歸分析,腐爛率、色澤和氣味3項指標對擬合模型不具有顯著性(P>0.05),去除后得消費者滿意度的快速預測模型。本研究結合品質客觀變化規(guī)律和消費者主觀評分,建立的整體滿意度預測模型與品質變化情況擬合度較高,為消費者快速判斷藍莓品質、提升消費滿意度提供理論依據(jù)和經(jīng)驗參考。
關鍵詞:藍莓;感官評價;回歸分析;預測模型
中圖分類號:S663.9??? 文獻標識碼:A?? 文章編號:1006-8023(2021)02-0110-07
Prediction Model of Consumers Overall Satisfaction
of Blueberries Based on Sensory Evaluation
XU Tonghui, LI Yang*, HUO Ruobing, WANG Leiming
(College of Engineering and Technology, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China)
Abstract:Through the determination of blueberry hardness, weight loss rate, decay rate and titratable acid content changed with time at storage temperature of 4, 15, 25 ℃, respectively; combined with the score of sensory indexes of blueberry, the rapid prediction model of overall satisfaction of blueberry consumers was established to improve the purchase satisfaction of blueberry consumers. The results showed that: the quality of blueberry decreased with storage time, and lower storage temperature could slow down the decline of quality; stepwise regression analysis of the model parameters showed that decay rate, color and flavor had no significant effect on the fitting model (P>0.05), and a rapid prediction model of consumer satisfaction was obtained after deletion. Based on the objective change of blueberry quality and the subjective score of consumers, the overall satisfaction prediction model had a high fitting degree with the change trend of blueberry quality, which provided theoretical basis and empirical reference for consumers to quickly judge blueberry quality and improve consumption satisfaction.
Keywords:Blueberries; sensory evaluation; regression analysis; prediction model
收稿日期:2020-09-25
基金項目:中央高?;究蒲袠I(yè)務費專項資金項目(2572017CB05);黑龍江省科學基金項目(QC2017080)
第一作者簡介:徐曈暉,碩士研究生。研究方向為冷鏈物流保鮮。E-mail: 839927843@qq.com
通信作者:李洋,博士,副教授。研究方向為冷鏈物流。E-mail: 378918917@qq.com
引文格式:徐曈暉, 李洋, 霍若冰, 等.基于感官評價的藍莓消費者滿意度預測模型[J].森林工程,2021,37(2):110-116.
XU T H, LI Y, HUO R B, et al. Prediction model of consumers overall satisfaction of blueberries based on sensory evaluation [J]. Forest Engineering,2021,37(2):110-116.
0 引言
藍莓,又稱越橘,杜鵑花科越橘屬,其果實中含有豐富的花青素、黃酮類化合物等多種生理活性成分[1],具有抗氧化活性和一定的醫(yī)學價值[2],被聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織(FAO)列為人類5大健康食品之一。隨著社會經(jīng)濟的迅速發(fā)展和人民生活水平的提高,人們越來越傾向于營養(yǎng)價值高的食品,同時對品質也提出了更高的要求。近年來,針對藍莓保鮮方法的研究,例如覆膜[3]、浸漬[4]和氣調(diào)包裝[5]等方面都有不錯的進展。這些保鮮方法的應用對藍莓品質的延長有顯著效果,但是對于感官評價及消費者滿意度預測方面的研究較少。因此,建立通過感官指標來判斷果品質量,預測消費者滿意度的模型,成為藍莓產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的重要助推力。
3.2 藍莓感官的品質指標分析
3.2.1 指標相關性分析
通過統(tǒng)計試驗人員的評分數(shù)據(jù),分析硬度、失重率、腐爛率、色澤、口感和氣味的相關性,結果顯示這6 種指標的相關性顯著(P<0.05),相關性系數(shù)都大于0.614。硬度、失重情況、腐爛情況、口感和氣味間均極其顯著(P<0.01),見表3。其中腐爛程度與硬度的相關系數(shù)最高為0.996,其次為藍莓的氣味與腐爛情況、失重情況,其相關系數(shù)分別為0.991和0.989。
3.2.2 指標的權重確定
在數(shù)據(jù)收集時,由試驗人員標出在購買消費時最關心的品質指標。通過統(tǒng)計100名試驗人員的數(shù)據(jù)結果,結合德爾菲權重賦值方法[20],對6 種指標進行權重賦值,具體數(shù)值見表4。在藍莓的感官評價指標中藍莓的腐爛情況權重最大,系數(shù)為0.25;權重最小的為色澤,系數(shù)為0.07。
3.3 藍莓感官評價結果及預測模型
3.3.1 藍莓感官評價結果
藍莓的感官指標評價統(tǒng)計結果見表5,藍莓的硬度、失重率、腐爛率、色澤和氣味5 種指標在測試周期內(nèi)均呈現(xiàn)逐漸降低的趨勢。第2天口感得分有所上升,分析可能是藍莓果實的可滴定酸含量和硬度的下降,口感和酸甜度有所改變,更符合普通消費者口感。且藍莓果皮色澤較深,表面有蠟質層附著,色澤變化在測試周期內(nèi)的得分并沒有明顯降低,表明藍莓果實的色澤對消費者選購傾向的影響較少,與權重比例相符合。
將統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)繪制成雷達圖,反映各項指標隨時間變化趨勢。如圖5所示,隨著時間的變化,藍莓感官各指標的得分所構成的六邊形面積逐漸變小,各項數(shù)據(jù)向雷達中心收縮??陀^地表達了藍莓品質隨著時間逐漸下降的趨勢。
3.3.2 藍莓感官評價結果回歸分析
結合品質指標結合評分和指標權重,進行加權值計算,得出消費者滿意度的最終得分。計算公式如下:
S=RW=r11r12…r17r21r22…r27r71r72…r77w1w2w7 。(1)
式中:S為綜合得分;R為得分值矩陣(表5),W為權重矩陣(表4)。計算結果見表6。
根據(jù)以上計算結果進行回歸分析。藍莓的感官指標綜合得分的高斯擬合曲線為:
y=8.69exp-x-1.1065.4672,(2)
相關系數(shù)r=0.980。
二項式擬合曲線為:
y=-0.190x2+0.336x+8.443, (3)
相關系數(shù)為r=0.996。
式中:y為綜合得分分值;x為藍莓儲藏時間。
從圖6不難看出,藍莓品質在前3天下降趨勢較為緩慢,這與實際測量結果一致。
3.3 消費者整體滿意度預測模型
將藍莓品質綜合得分與各項感官指標進行逐步回歸分析,建立藍莓消費者整體滿意度的預測模型,結果見表7。在分析的結果中,硬度、失重率和口感3 項指標與綜合得分顯著相關(P<0.05);而腐爛率、色澤和氣味3項指標不具有顯著性(P>0.05),這與之前評定的權重結果基本符合。R2約等于1,說明由硬度(H)、失重率(w)和口感(T)組成的預測模型接近實際情況,建立消費者滿意度預測模型為:
y=1.154+0.273×H +0.309×w +0.294×T。
該模型可以幫助消費者選購藍莓時,通過硬度、失重率和口感,快速地評判藍莓品質,提升消費滿意度。
4 結論
本研究結合藍莓品質變化數(shù)據(jù)與感官評價得分,利用逐步回歸分析方法建立了消費者滿意度預測模型。通過試驗研究了藍莓品質在儲藏期的變化情況,并對收集的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)進行加權處理,主要結論如下。
(1)藍莓在4、15、25 ℃的儲藏期間各項指標均呈現(xiàn)逐漸下降的趨勢,且4 ℃環(huán)境下品質下降幅度較小,說明較低的溫度有利于藍莓儲藏。通過感官評價得分所繪制的雷達圖,反映出藍莓的感官品質影響消費者的滿意度。
(2)對感官評價得分進行高斯曲線擬合和多項式擬合,擬合曲線均呈下降趨勢。值得注意的是,藍莓在儲藏初期感官評價得分有所上升,而在中后期下降迅速,且品質指標劣變明顯。依據(jù)逐步回歸分析法對6 種指標進行分析,篩除腐爛率、色澤和氣味3 種不顯著的指標,得出消費者滿意度預測模型為:
y=1.154+0.273×H+0.309×w+0.294×T(R2>0.995)。
模型擬合精度較高,適合作為消費者通過感官指標對藍莓品質的評價方法。
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