新冠大流行之際，該如何理財(cái)？

梅甘·迪特羅里奧

Youve heard it on the news， from your dad， and from your friends in banking： COVID-19 is catapulting1 the U.S. into an economic recession. Its a tumultuous2 time， but that doesnt mean you have to approach your finances blindly. We tapped3 Sallie Krawcheck， banking veteran and founder of female-focused financial planning service Ellevest， to answer your questions about investing and money management during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Everyone says were on the brink of an economic depression. Is that true？

I started my career as a research analyst covering the stock market. I have always thought that the stock market talks to us and tells us what is happening， though sometimes its hard to interpret. The stock market is telling us that we are in a recession， probably a depression. Its telling us that by the fact that it has declined so much， so fast. It was the worst first quarter in 100+ years， and the fastest move from what we call a bull market （an upward trending， robust， strong stock market） to whats called a bear market， where we fall more than 20 percent （and our market has been down more than 30 percent）.

Does that mean its too late to sell stocks？

The number one and number two questions we get at Ellevest （and they change in order） is： Should I be buying and should I be selling？ Typically， the answer to both is no. If you follow your instinct today and get out， youre likely going to miss the upturn. The upturn after one of these declines tends to happen before its clear that were coming out of the recession.

This idea of “If I can see whats coming， can I take action？” is wrong. What you should do is something called rebalancing your portfolio （meaning buying or selling assets to maintain a desired level of asset allocation or risk）. Lets say you started off with an investment portfolio thats made up of 70 percent equity and 30 percent bonds， which is a pretty risky portfolio. With that portfolio， over time you should earn higher returns. Because of whats going on in the stock market， maybe youre now no longer at 70-30， youre at 55-45. Maybe you want to go back to 70-30， which means you want to buy equity and sell bonds. This rebalancing back to your goal can actually force you to make counter-intuitive decisions that you wouldnt otherwise make.

I literally just got into investing. Should I stop？

I would continue， assuming that youre in good financial shape （you have an emergency fund and little debt）. Dont look at your existing balance， because its just going to upset you. By investing a percent of every paycheck， buying stocks low and selling them high， youll do much better than if you tried to guess the market. Even the people on CNBC， who talk so confidently on when its the right time to buy and sell， typically do not do better than average. Remember， we have recovered from every single recession in history. If history is any guide， we will also recover from， this one， even if its bumpy.

Im recently unemployed due to ? ?COVID-19. What can I do？

It depends on your personal circumstance. Unemployment will be expanded， particularly for people who didnt have unemployment insurance， like freelancers. But for some people， it will still mean spending through your emergency funds. For some people its going to mean， unfortunately， running up credit card debt. If those things are happening to you， stop investing. Instead， go into conservation mode： You need to replenish your emergency fund and pay down credit card debt before you begin to invest again.

What steps can I take to restore financial health？

Sit down and make a list of every area where youre spending money and where you can begin to cut. Some obvious ones right now are going out to eat and travel. Use those funds to pay down credit card debt. Get rid of unnecessary subscriptions， like Netflix and Hulu. Youre not going to save a million dollars， but it adds up to make a difference.

Everyone is talking about an emergency fund. What do I do if I dont have one—and how can I start one？

Our recommendation has always been to build up a period of three to six months of take-home （after taxes） pay and put that money in a FDIC insured savings account， which means the government insures that money. You dont earn a lot on it， but its insured. If you have not built an emergency fund， its never too late to start one. Its going to be a matter of what we just talked about： On the other side of all of this， where can you reduce expenses？

If you have savings and credit card debt， use your savings to pay off your debt. This may be a little counterintuitive， but your savings are not earning you anything， and the credit card debt is costing you a lot.

Ive been saving for a short-term investment... like purchasing a home in five years. Help.

That goal is pretty near-term and youll need to spend that money soon， so at Ellevest we wouldnt invest much in the stock market. The reason we dont is because of times like this [unexpected recessions]. More funds should be in bonds or debt. Whereas stocks are the ownership of a sliver of a bigger company， like IBM， debt or bonds actually owe you money. Debt tends to be less sexy than stocks because the stock market can go up， but for debt you only get back the amount you lent， with interest. Assuming your investments are done like this， you should be okay. It might take 6 months longer to buy your home， but youll still be able to do it.

Conversely， for a longer-term investment， like retirement， you should have more equity—which is more risk， but typically over time， its a greater return.

When do you predict the recovery of our economy will start？

I would expect more volatility in the stock market. I think it will get better before we fully recognize that were coming out of the recession. I dont think well see a full recovery， frankly， until we have some resolution to the virus.

Every downturn feels worse than every one that came before when youre actually in it. This one feels particularly tough because its about our health. But， again， we have recovered from recession every time in history. This time， it may take a little bit longer， but the entrepreneurial spirit of the United States of America will come out on the other hand and drive the stock market even higher.

從新聞以及家人和在銀行工作的朋友那里，你已有所耳聞：新冠疫情使美國突然陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。這是個(gè)紛亂動(dòng)蕩的階段，但并不意味著你只得盲目地處理個(gè)人財(cái)務(wù)。我們特邀薩莉·克勞切克——銀行業(yè)資深人士，女性財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃服務(wù)平臺(tái)Ellevest創(chuàng)始人——回答您有關(guān)新冠疫情大流行期間投資與理財(cái)?shù)膯栴}。

人人都說我們?yōu)l臨經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條。這是真的嗎？

我職業(yè)生涯的起點(diǎn)是股市的研究分析師。我一直認(rèn)為，股市會(huì)跟我們交談，并告訴我們正在發(fā)生什么事兒，盡管有時(shí)難以解讀。股市在告訴我們，我們正處于衰退，很可能是蕭條中。股市下跌得如此之多、如此之快，它是用這樣的事實(shí)來告訴我們的。2020年頭三個(gè)月，是一百多年來股市表現(xiàn)最差的第一季度，從我們所說的牛市（行情上行、穩(wěn)健而強(qiáng)勁的股市）向熊市的轉(zhuǎn)變最為迅速。在熊市里股價(jià)下跌會(huì)超過20%（而我們的市場現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)跌了超過30%）。

那是否意味著賣出股票為時(shí)已晚？

我們?cè)贓llevest被問到的第一個(gè)和第二個(gè)問題（排序不分先后）是：我該買入嗎？我該賣出嗎？通常，兩者的答案都是“否”。如果你今天聽?wèi){直覺逃出了市場，那么你很可能將錯(cuò)過回升。類似的下跌會(huì)有多次，某次下跌后的回升往往發(fā)生在確定將走出衰退之前。

“如果能覺察即將發(fā)生的事，我可以采取行動(dòng)嗎？”這個(gè)想法是錯(cuò)誤的。你應(yīng)當(dāng)做的是調(diào)整投資組合（即買入或賣出資產(chǎn)，以保持期望的資產(chǎn)配置或風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平）。比如說，你開始時(shí)的投資組合由70%的股票和30%的債券構(gòu)成，這是一個(gè)相當(dāng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的組合。隨時(shí)間推移，你可能憑著這一組合賺得更高回報(bào)。鑒于股市的當(dāng)前狀況，現(xiàn)在你的股票與債券投資比例，也許不再是70%比30%，而是55%比45%。或許你想恢復(fù)到70%比30%，這意味著你需要買股票賣債券。這種回到原定目標(biāo)的再平衡，實(shí)際上能夠迫使你做出只有這種情況下才會(huì)做出的違背直覺的決定。

我才剛開始做投資，該收手嗎？

假如財(cái)務(wù)狀況良好（已有應(yīng)急基金，且債務(wù)不多），我會(huì)繼續(xù)投資。不要著眼于現(xiàn)有余額，因?yàn)槟菢忧∏?huì)使你心煩意亂。把每筆薪水的一部分用來投資股票，賤買貴賣，會(huì)比試圖猜測市場走勢效果更好。在美國全國廣播公司財(cái)經(jīng)頻道（CNBC）上那么自信地談?wù)摵螘r(shí)是買賣股票恰當(dāng)時(shí)機(jī)的那些人，即便是他們，通常投資收益也不會(huì)好于平均水平。要記住，我們已從歷史上的每一次衰退中恢復(fù)過來。如果歷史可資借鑒，即便前路崎嶇艱險(xiǎn)，我們也將會(huì)從這一次的衰退中恢復(fù)。

由于新冠疫情，我最近失了業(yè)。我怎么辦呢？

這取決于個(gè)人狀況。失業(yè)的情況會(huì)增多，特別是對(duì)自由職業(yè)者那樣沒有買過失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)的人來說。但對(duì)有些人來說，仍意味著要靠自己的應(yīng)急基金維持開銷。很不幸，對(duì)某些人而言，那將意味著信用卡債臺(tái)高筑。如果遭遇了那些事，就要停止投資。相反，要進(jìn)入保護(hù)模式：你需要補(bǔ)充應(yīng)急基金，再次開始投資之前，還掉信用卡債務(wù)。

為了恢復(fù)財(cái)務(wù)健康，我可以采取哪些步驟？

你把錢花在了哪些方面，哪些可以開始削減，坐下來列個(gè)清單吧。顯而易見馬上就可以削減的是外出吃飯和旅游。用那些錢還掉信用卡債務(wù)。取消多余的訂閱，如奈飛和Hulu視頻。你不會(huì)省下百萬美元，但積少成多，情況就會(huì)有改觀。

人人都在談?wù)搼?yīng)急基金。要是沒有的話，怎么辦，怎樣開始建一個(gè)？

我們一直建議要把3到6個(gè)月的實(shí)得（稅后）薪水?dāng)€起來，把這筆錢存入受到聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司保護(hù)的存款賬戶里，這意味著政府保障這筆錢的安全。這筆錢你掙不了幾個(gè)子兒，但它是保險(xiǎn)的。如果還沒建立應(yīng)急基金，無論何時(shí)開始都不算太晚。接下來就是我們剛剛談到的問題：換個(gè)角度看，在哪些方面可以削減開支？

如果你有儲(chǔ)蓄和信用卡債務(wù)，就用儲(chǔ)蓄還掉欠債。這或許有點(diǎn)兒違背常理，但儲(chǔ)蓄賺不來什么，而信用卡債務(wù)卻讓你所費(fèi)甚多。

我一直在為短期投資，比如說5年后購房而存錢。幫幫我。

那確實(shí)是近期目標(biāo)，不久后你就要花掉那筆錢，所以，在Ellevest我們不會(huì)大量投資于股票市場。我們不那么做的理由是因?yàn)橛蓄愃颇壳斑@樣的意外衰退。應(yīng)當(dāng)加大對(duì)債券或債權(quán)的投資。股票是像IBM這種大型公司的一小份所有權(quán)，而債權(quán)或債券實(shí)則是別的公司欠你的錢。債權(quán)往往不如股票誘人，因?yàn)楣墒袝?huì)上漲，而投資于債權(quán)只能收回借出的錢款，外加利息。假設(shè)你是這樣投資的，應(yīng)該沒有問題。買房子可能要多花6個(gè)月，但你仍能實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo)。

相反，比如為退休而做更長時(shí)間投資的話，你就應(yīng)當(dāng)擁有更多的股票——這樣風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更大，但隨著時(shí)間推移，收益通常更高。

你預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)何時(shí)將開始復(fù)蘇？

我預(yù)料股市會(huì)有更多波動(dòng)。我認(rèn)為，在我們充分意識(shí)到即將走出衰退之前，經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢會(huì)變好。坦率地說，我認(rèn)為，在找到解決這種病毒的辦法之前，我們不會(huì)看到經(jīng)濟(jì)完全恢復(fù)。

每逢低迷時(shí)期，當(dāng)你切實(shí)置身其中時(shí)，感受都要比此前的任何一次衰退糟糕。這一次我們感覺尤為艱困，因其事關(guān)健康。但是，再說一遍，我們已從歷史上的每一次衰退中恢復(fù)過來。這一次，或許要稍稍多費(fèi)些時(shí)日，但從另一面看，美國的創(chuàng)業(yè)精神將得到發(fā)揚(yáng)，并推動(dòng)股票市場再創(chuàng)新高。

（譯者單位：中國社會(huì)科學(xué)院財(cái)經(jīng)戰(zhàn)略研究院）