Pilotless planes could save airlines billions.But would anyone fly?

By Calvin Harris

采用無人駕駛的客機(jī)每年可以為航空公司節(jié)省數(shù)十億的開支，同時(shí)機(jī)票的價(jià)格也會大大降低，但大多數(shù)乘客還是選擇信任飛行員。

Taking pilots out of the cockpit could save airlines billions.But would anyone buy a ticket?

The aviation industry could save$35 billion a year by moving to pilotless planes,according to a new report from UBS.Just one problem:The same report warns that only 17%of travelers are willing to fly without a pilot.

UBS said that the technology required to operate remote-controlled planes could appear by 2025.Further advances beyond 2030 might result in automated business jets and helicopters,and finally commercial aircraft without pilots.

The technologies in development today will enable the aircraft to assist and back up the pilot in all the flight phases，removing the pilot from manual control and systems operations in all types of situations,the report said.

Commercial flights already land with the assistance of onboard computers,and pilots manually fly the aircraft for only a few minutes on average.

However,contrary to popular belief,airliners do not fly themselves,even when they’re on autopilot.Pilots are continually mon-itoring and adjusting aircraft navigation and systems,communicating with air traffic control and preparing for the next phase of the flight.

The UBS analysts said the transition to pilotless planes is likely to happen over many years.Cargo planes would likely be first to incorporate the new technology，with commercial flights being the last to go pilotless.The number of pilots needed for each flight could be reduced along the way.

The shift has the potential to save the aviation industry huge amounts of money.Airlines typically employ 10 pilots per aircraft,and reducing their number would result in less spending on training,salaries and other staffing costs.It could also help alleviate an expected pilot shortage over the coming decades.

An annual forecast released by Boeing last month said passenger and cargo airlines around the world are expected to buy 41,000 new airliners between 2017 and 2036.That means they will need to find and train 637,000 new pilots to fly them.

Airlines in the Middle East and China,where air traffic is growing fast,are offering huge paychecks to attract more pilots and salaries in the U.S.are rising too.

A move to pilotless planes would boost industry profitability,UBS said.Alternatively,if the cost savings were entirely passed to consumers,tickets could cost much less (11%cheaper in the U.S.).That would be about$40 a ticket,according to the$369 round trip average in the first half of 2016,which included$23 in fees.

Still,there is likely to be major resistance to taking pilots out of the cockpit.

A survey of 8,000 people commissioned by UBS found that 54%of respondents were unlikely to take a pilotless flight.Just 17%of respondents,who were from the U.S.,U.K.,France,Germany and Australia,said they would buy the ticket.

采用無人駕駛的客機(jī)可以為航空公司節(jié)省數(shù)十億的開支,但會有人選擇乘坐這樣的飛機(jī)嗎?

瑞士聯(lián)合銀行(UBS)的一項(xiàng)報(bào)告稱，飛機(jī)制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向生產(chǎn)無人駕駛客機(jī)每年可以減少350億美元的支出。但是這項(xiàng)報(bào)告也指出，只有17%的旅客愿意乘坐無人駕駛的客機(jī)。

UBS稱這種可遠(yuǎn)程控制飛機(jī)的技術(shù)將會在2025年出現(xiàn)。到2030年將會進(jìn)一步有先進(jìn)的技術(shù)出現(xiàn)在自動化商用飛機(jī)和直升機(jī)上。而最終商用客機(jī)也會踏入無飛行員時(shí)代。

報(bào)告中說道：目前發(fā)展的技術(shù)將會使飛機(jī)在每一個飛行階段協(xié)助并支持飛行員的工作，飛行員無需在任何情況下進(jìn)行手動控制或系統(tǒng)操作。

目前商業(yè)航班已經(jīng)裝備了輔助設(shè)備機(jī)載計(jì)算機(jī)，需要飛行員手動控制的時(shí)間平均下來只有幾分鐘。

然而，與普遍觀點(diǎn)恰恰相反的是，飛機(jī)并不是完全自主飛行，即便是在自動駕駛狀態(tài)下。飛行員會持續(xù)監(jiān)視并調(diào)整飛機(jī)航行和系統(tǒng)，同時(shí)還要與空管保持聯(lián)絡(luò)以準(zhǔn)備下一飛行階段。

UBS的分析指出，飛機(jī)由有人駕駛轉(zhuǎn)向無人駕駛要經(jīng)歷很多年。貨運(yùn)飛機(jī)有可能會首先嘗試新技術(shù)，而商用客機(jī)則會是最后一個。而在這期間，每架飛機(jī)所需飛行員的數(shù)量會逐漸減少。

這一轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)轱w機(jī)制造業(yè)節(jié)省大量的支出還有很大的潛力。航空公司一般會為每架飛機(jī)配備10名飛行員，如果減少這一數(shù)量將意味著更少的訓(xùn)練經(jīng)費(fèi)，工資以及其他的人工費(fèi)用。同時(shí)對于未來幾十年內(nèi)可能出現(xiàn)的飛行員短缺現(xiàn)象具有緩和作用。

波音公司在上個月發(fā)布的年度預(yù)測中提到：全球客運(yùn)和貨運(yùn)航空公司將會在2017年至2036年間購入41,000架新飛機(jī)，這就意味著他們需要訓(xùn)練出637,000名飛行員來駕駛這些飛機(jī)。

在航空運(yùn)輸高速發(fā)展的中東地區(qū)以及中國，航空公司提出高額薪水來吸引更多的飛行員。在美國，飛行員的工資也提高了。

UBS稱，飛機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)型為無人駕駛將會推動工業(yè)收益。如果這筆開支全部節(jié)省在消費(fèi)者一方，那么機(jī)票價(jià)格也會大大降低(北美可降低11%)。這樣一來，根據(jù)2016年上半年的平均往返機(jī)票價(jià)格369美元，機(jī)票價(jià)格大約會降價(jià)40美元。

但仍然有大部分人反對無人駕駛飛機(jī)。

一項(xiàng)由UBS委辦的針對8,000人的調(diào)查顯示，54%的調(diào)查對象不愿意乘坐無人駕駛的飛機(jī)。只有17%的人的回答是愿意。這部分人來自美國，英國，法國，德國以及澳大利亞。