DEVELOPMENT TREND OF CHINA’S SURROUNDING AREA AND ITS STRATEGIC CHOICE

ZHOU FANGYIN

Dean and Professor, School of International Relations,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,a series of important concepts on neighbourhood diplomacy has been put forward based on China’s pioneering practice with achievements scored in various field, such as the effectively implemented Belt and Road Initiative,steadily advanced interconnection and interlinking, continuously upgraded regional economic cooperation and significantly eased South China Sea and Korean Nuclear issues. Meanwhile, as a result of the increased US strategic pressure, China has confronted complex sovereignty disputes with a number of neighbouring countries both on land and water. Some of these countries are experiencing deep-going political and social transformation. Against this backdrop, China’s neighbourhood diplomacy is still faced with very complicated external environment and quite a number of serious challenges. Under such circumstances, China needs to make efforts to open a new chapter in neighbourhood diplomacy with strategic planning and overall design based on a better understanding of the overall development trend of its surrounding area.

Development Trend of China’s Surrounding Area

China’s cause of peaceful rising is entering into a crucial stage, with continuously elevating strength, influence and shaping power in its surrounding area.At the same time, China is still faced with high strategic pressure which will last for a long period of time. In general, there are a number of characteristics of China’s surrounding area as follows:

First, China’s surrounding area is currently at an important transitional and transformational stage, with the regional order transferring from the one used to be dominated by the US to a new one.One of the major features of transformation stage is the long-term deadlock in the strategic competition among major powers. Countries in the region fail to reach agreement on many important issues concerning regional order. There is still a resetting process for regional strength hierarchy, in which the future of gaming among different ideas and different mechanisms still remains unclear. The core question faced by China in this transitional period is to identify its position and influence in the region,and, while the nature of China-US relationship eventually becomes clear, form a sustainable regional structure and a stable interactive model among states so that an effective normal mechanism to manage and control hot issues in the region will take shape.

This transitional period will last for a long time. At this stage, it could be easy to shape the way of act. The main actors may adopt strategic probing in many aspects of one another so as to have correct judgments of the strategic aims and capabilities of other countries.The process and result of these strategic probing may serve as significant factors in shaping the future order with a lasting and meaningful role.

Countries in this region have high expectation for a new regional order.However, no clear way to reach this new order has been found. At the same time, the US and its allies are trying to maintain the existing regional order by promoting the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” to hinder the transformation of regional order and contain China’s influence in the region.

Many countries in the region still have a few concerns. For example, some worry that China and the US may compromise to each other on strategic in-terests at the cost of the interests of the neighbouring countries. As far as they are concerned, this could very probably happen in a medium and long period of time although maybe not quite soon.As a result, some neighbouring countries hold ambient attitude toward the improvement of China-US relationship.Another part of countries worry that their policy adequacy may cause damage to their interests in the process of transformation of order. Therefore, they take sides in the competition among major powers, and are eventually discarded by major powers, which results in big loss of their interests. There are also some countries which worry about their own position in the new order.Some of them chose to protect themselves by avoiding troubles. Though might be a wise way, this may also lead to being marginalized in the process of order transformation. In general, most countries in the region are hesitant to see a drastic and major change of the existing pattern and order in a short period of time. Instead, they hope the change could be a stable and easy-toadapt one.

Second, China’s strategic influence on neighbouring countries has been increased as a result of effect management of hotpot issues in the region.The year between 2017 and 2018 has witnessed fairly dramatic changes on hotspot issues in China’s neighbouring countries. The situation in Korean Peninsula has significantly mitigated.China-India relationship has been remarkably improved since the 2017 Doklam border standoff. On the question of South China Sea, China enjoys stable relations with relevant ASEAN states, and positive developments have been seen recently.

A series of changes around the hotspot issues in the region are a result of joint effect of many factors, among which, China’s policy choice serves as a crucial driving force. On the one hand,this shows China’s policy will of managing hotspot issues in the region, and on the other hand, it also shows that China applies relevant policies in a more mature and skillful way. When handling hotspot issues, China resorts long-term management more than controlling crisis and cooling tensions. However,multilateral mechanism still plays a limited role in hotspot management in the region till now.

In recent years, along with its rapid enhancement of military capability and firm manifestation of strategic resolution, China has markedly increased its strategic influence in the region.Its security influence power, once its weakness for a long time, has also been strengthened. As a result, less and less small-and-medium-sized neighbouring countries take initiative to unjustifiably provoke China. Objectively speaking, it is not in conformity with the interests of any neighbouring country to have lasting and intensive confrontation with China. From a perspective of development trend, the possibility of China being directly challenged by its neighbouring countries is decreasing, if not entirely non-existent. Many neighbouring countries believe that the US support is not reliable, and they might be kicked away or discarded afterwards if they stand closely by the US in combating China.

Third, neighbouring countries are increasingly confident in China and have less concerns about the uncertainty of the order led by China. While China’s influence is rising in the region, the US and some of its allies disagree to that China should play an even bigger role.One of their most important reasons is that the existed US-led international order has been effectively running for decades and its perspective is highly foreseeable. On the contrary, the one led by China may have many uncertainties. According to Australia’s 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper, Australia has benefited a lot in the US-led international order, and it believes that supporting the US global leadership is in high conformity with Australia’s interests. However, the Trump Administration has remarkably increased the uncertainties of the existing system and exerted significant impact on the existing international order in the past year with its actions in international affairs, including withdrawing from a series of international organizations and agreements, breaking its pledge in international community, and achieving its own national interests at the cost of those of other countries in the name of “the US first”. If the Trump Administration insists on the ongoing practice,neighbouring countries’ anxious about the US will increase.

In contrast, China has been always sticking to a foreign policy of peaceful development and win-win cooperation against different backdrops, such as the spreading financial crisis, heating-up of hotpot issues, aggravating China-US trade frictions. China supplies economic, security and other public products for the region zealously. In conformity with the development needs of its neighbouring countries and maintaining high strategic patience in promoting economic cooperation connectivity,China makes enthusiastic efforts in communicating and consulting with its neighbouring countries on questions of common concerns, showing great respect to the concerns and major interest considerations of its neighbouring countries. As a result, these countries have maintained a consistent foreign policy for a long time. The neighbouring countries are more confident in China’s foreign policy, and their concerns about the uncertainties of Chinaled order have decreased. Most of the neighbouring countries hold that China has a clear-cut development orientation for its future foreign policy. They also recognize that developing economic partnership with China bring them significant benefit.

Fourth, the strategic competition between China and the US has intensified and implied in the region in various forms. In as short as two months from December 2017 to February 2018,the Trump Administration successively issued three heavy-weight papers on security policies, namely National Security Strategy of the United States of America, National Defense Strategy of the United States of America and Nuclear Posture Review. In all these papers,China and Russia are listed at the top of three security challenges faced by the US. China is defined as a strategic rival, with whom the US has adopted some Cold-War gimmicks to confront.Meanwhile, the US has also enhanced its economic pressure on China.

The aggravated strategic competition between China and the US can be contributed to the US recognition of great power relations and international order.From the US perspective, competitions between great powers are in general zero-sum games. That’s why it always worries about its superior position. The next few years probably will not witness easing of the competition between China and the US. Instead, this competition may even get fierce as a result of China approaching to the US in strength.

One of the major embodiments of China-US strategic competition is the“Indo-Pacific Strategy”, through which,the US together with Japan and Australia attempted to take dominance in regional competition by changing the map of geographic competition. The Indo-Pacific Strategy will shift the composition of regional forces, although might not in a very smooth process due to different understanding of the strategy by the three above-mentioned countries plus India. The Indo-Pacific Strategy will also have some influence on the interests of other Southeast Asia and South Asia countries. China is capable of exerting certain impact on the development of the Indo-Pacific Strategy, if it wishes. Judging from the current situation, the advancing speed of Indo-Pacific Strategy is obviously slower than that of the Asia-Pacific Rebalancing several years ago. As a result of its failure in having an effective strategic focus on international issues, the Trump Administration does not have an international strategy with strong continuity.Therefore, with an unclear prospect, the influence of the Indo-Pacific Strategy still remains to be seen.

Challenges and Countermeasures:China’s Neighbourhood Diplomacy

China’s neighbourhood diplomacy will face challenges in various fields in the coming period of time. The first one will be how to handle the competition with the US in the region against thebackdrop of the accelerating strategic competition, in particular, to effectively clear away the US interference. The second one will be how to effectively manage the hotspot issues in the region over a long period of time, and prevent the negative influence from spreading.The third one will be how to defuse the strategic pressure brought about by the advancement of Indo-Pacific Strategy, especially to suppress other countries’ motives for taking part in the Indo-Pacific Strategy so as to put off its advancement. The fourth one will be how to create a stable pro-China circle of friends in the region, which will help preventing neighbouring countries from standing for the interests of the US. The fifth one will be how to give positive play to regional mechanisms to increase certainty of development orientation of regional order.

As it is implemented and advanced,the Belt and Road Initiative plays a conducive role to tighten the bonds between China and its neighboring countries and promote common development of the region. Chinese companies have been heading overseas, hosting or contracting a large number of infrastructure projects, which have played a positive role in improving the infrastructure conditions and driving local economic and social development.To facilitate the development of the Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park, the Beibu Gulf International Port Group took a stake in the port of Kuantan and joined hands with the Malaysian partners to expedite the upgrading of the port. The picture shows a breakwater at the new deepwater wharf in Kuantan, Malaysia on April 28, 2018.

In general, instead of problems and challenges brought about by regional hotspot issues with which China has accumulated rich experience to deal, the major future challenges China will face to will be how to handle the systematic obstacle against its rising in an increasingly uncertain international system and existing order, and based on that,to promote peace, stability and development of the neighbourhood for a more friendly and favourable regional environment. China’s neighbourhood diplomacy in a period of time could be oriented to the following aspects:

First, China should further identify the path to develop bilateral relations with neighbouring countries through strengthening interest integrity and mutual dependence so as to reduce uncertainties of regional structure and order. China and the US for a long period of time in the future will still be competing in a process of strategic consumption instead of strategic runoff. Therefore, China’s neighbourhood diplomacy should proceed from a longterm perspective to lay a good foundation based on both means and measures. By consolidating micro-foundation of relations with neighbouring countries, China could build a community of shared future for neighbourhood integrated with regional structure and order so that a number of supportive groups of countries could be formed to enhance defensibility against strategic risks and pressure.

Second, proper policy should be adopted and practical action be taken for risk management to avoid repeated occurrence of hotspot issues in the region and squeeze the space for interference by external powers. Concentrated in China’s neighbouring region, some hotspot issues have existed for years.While regional order is undergoing profound transformation, hotspot issues sometimes can be even more sensitive and involve even higher level of strategic relations, resulting in more complex regional situation in a very short time. Therefore, China needs to adopt effective measures to strengthen the management of hotspot issues in the region before they are solved fundamentally. In this process, both soft and hard measures are needed. On the one hand, strategic restraint is needed to allow the neighbouring countries to fully understand China’s goodwill strategic intention. On the other hand, strong countermeasures should be taken against unjustifiable provocations, suppressing motives of such action. In addition, China should give a better play to regional security mechanism in longterm management of regional hotspot issues. Regular management of hotspot issues could reduce their impact on regional order and give play to existed security mechanism in restraining security competition among major powers.

Third, differentiating policies should be adopted for different countries. More precise policies should be adopted towards different countries in international cooperation based on different patterns of behavior. While implementing a principle of overall consistency,differentiating policies should be adopted toward different countries for improving bilateral cooperation. With that aim, China may carry out in-depth,extensive and comprehensive cooperation with countries that have true cooperation will. With opportunist countries,China may carry out conditional cooperation with a well-arranged reserve plan against clear violation liability. As for countries not ready for cooperation,China may conserve its diplomatic resources.

Fourth, following the principle of pursuing shared benefits through consultation and collaboration, China would give impetus to the building of Belt and Road in an in-depth and stable way so that all countries in the region could enjoy a higher-level interconnection. With efforts in recent years, abundant achievements have been scored for the Belt and Road development in the region, and quite a number of countries have attained early harvest in the process. The Belt and Road Initiative, as a supplier of public products to the international community, is conducive to strengthening the bonds between China and its neighbouring countries for common development in the process of implementation and advancement.Meanwhile, it also helps with regional stability, expand team for cooperation,increase strategic space for peaceful development and further improve international environment for development.

Fifth, capabilities and limitations of economy and security as supplement for diplomatic means should be identified for tackling different challenges and problems while improving the shaping ability of non-economic means in the region. However, if economic means has been used too much in developing relations with neighbouring countries, these countries may come up with wrong expectation. Only by integrating with other means can economic means be more effective. For that purpose, China could gradually expand its supply of security public products to countries in the region so as to create more favourable conditions for optimizing combination of policy means by enhancing the interdependency and upgrading cooperation with neighbouring countries in security.

In a period of time, in addition to tackling the questions of strength accumulation and strategic pressure from the US, China needs to focus on how to improve its acceptability and popularity in the region. In the mean time of building up its strength, China should also pay close attention to the influence brought about by its rising power and behavior for the region. The role of substantial strength should be played to upgrade China’s image and prestige in the region, so that the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation could be assisted by its neighbouring countries.