JAPAN’S READJUSTMENT OF CHINA POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT TREND OF CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONSHIP

LV YAODONG

Researcher, Japanese Studies Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

China-Japan Relationship is a very special bilateral tie in international relations since it’s a matter of regional peace and stability. The Abe administration has long pursued a“bet-hedging” strategy towards China.Although it claims that it attaches great importance to the ties between Japan and China, it pursues “Strategic Diplomacy” and “Value-oriented Diplomacy”to hype up the so-called “China Threat”in international community. It not only makes China-Japan relations to continuously fall into a vicious circle of “repeated deterioration”, but also become an uncertainty for peace and stability in East Asia and the regional security.In addition, it reflects the “diplomacy dilemma” of the Abe administration’s China policy.

China has been consistent in safeguarding the overall interest of China-Japan relations and adhered to the four political documents between China and Japan to develop the bilateral ties.In the spirit of striving to expand positive aspects and curb negative ones in the bilateral relations, and securing a stable and improved relationship between the two countries, China clearly points out the problems existing in the China-Japan ties, and shows constructive intentions of easing the bilateral tensions. China hopes that Japan can take concrete actions, implement the“Four-point Agreement-in-principle”between China and Japan and develop the bilateral relations sincerely. In early 2017, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated in a policy speech to the Diet that “we welcome China’s peaceful development. We are all fully aware that both Japan and China should shoulder huge responsibility of ensuring peace and prosperity in our region.” This statement demostrated Japan’s intention of adjusting its China policy. Recently,China-Japan relations have tended to ease up, and the “four-point principles consensus” between China and Japan have been carried out to some certain extent, and both sides have resumed multi-level dialogues and exchanges.

SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY OF “45TH ANNIVERSARY OF NORMALIZATION OF JAPAN-CHINA DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS”TO PROMOTE BILATERAL HIGH-LEVEL EXCHANGES

2017 marked the 45thanniversary of the normalization of China-Japan diplomatic relations. Shinzo Abe took an unexpected move and said in his policy speech to the Japanese legislature at the beginning of 2017 that Japan should take the opportunity of the 45thanniversary of the normalization of diplomatic ties between Japan and China in 2017,and the 40thanniversary of the signing of the Japan-China Treaty of Peace and Friendship in 2018 to try to improve the ties of the two nations following the principle of “strategic reciprocal relations”. His statement showed that in addition to improving its alliance with the United States to jointly counter China, the Japanese government also wanted to express its willingness to “ease up” the Japan-China relations in the international community, and make the diplomatic gesture of promoting a strategic reciprocal relations between Japan and China. Abe seeks to secure a summit between Japanese and Chinese heads at international multilateral settings, which shows a warming attitude towards China and a “positive” China policy.

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Hamburg, Germany on July 8, 2017.In terms of bilateral relations, both sides agreed to strengthen dialogues between the two leaders and promote relationship. The two sides also confirmed that they would improve bilateral relations on the basis of previous consensus as the 1972 China-Japan Joint Statement.Abe said 2017 marked the 45thanniversary of the normalization of Japanese-Chinese diplomatic relations and expressed the idea of building trust and improving ties between the two countries. He stressed that he was “ready to further develop and boost the momentum of Japan-China relations”. With regard to the “Belt and Road” initiative, Abe said he hoped it can “fully absorb the common ideas of the international community and make positive contributions to prosperity of the region and the world at large”. He recognized the “Belt and Road” Initiative China has promoted,and expressed the idea of “conditional”cooperation in the initiative. President Xi Jinping emphasized that cementing the political foundation is the prerequisite for sound development of China-Japan relations. Since the normalization of diplomatic ties between China and Japan, both sides have signed four political documents, reached “Four-point Agreement-in-principle” and defined principles regarding properly handling problems such as historical and Taiwan issue. Only by adhering to these principles and consensus can the China-Japan relations stay on the right trajectory and move at a normal speed.

On May 6, 2017, the Sixth China-Japan Finance Dialogue was held in Japan. The fi nance ministers of the two countries agreed that the dialogue was of great signif i cance to both sides and helped the two countries exchange in-depth views on their respective macroeconomic situation and policies. The picture shows that Taro Aso (second to the left), Japan's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance,and Xiao Jie (second to the right), China's Minister of Finance, attended the Sixth China-Japan Finance Dialogue.

President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held a summit meeting on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Da Nang, Vietnam on November 11,2017. President Xi said that there were still many subjects as to further improving the ties between the two countries and he hoped that Japan can follow the trend of the times and promote further development of the bilateral relations.In response, Abe said, “2018 marks the 40thanniversary of the signing of the Japan-China Treaty of Peace and Friendship, and it is our hope to further promote the development of bilateral relations.” President Xi pointed out that a stable development of China-Japan relationship is in the interests of both sides and has a significant impact on the region and the world at large. He stressed that the key to improving China-Japan relations lied in mutual trust.Abe said that Japan hoped to strengthen high-level exchanges with China, conduct mutually beneficial economic and trade cooperation, and actively explore cooperation within the framework of interconnectivity and the “Belt and Road”Initiative. He hoped that a summit between leaders of Japan, China and the Republic of Korea could be held as soon as possible, and the system of mutual visits between heads of Japan and China would be resumed after years of suspension. Abe also said that he hoped that Japan and China could also expand cooperation in the field of economy and stressed that the two countries should build a cooperative mechanism in a third-country market. What’s worth noting is that in his speech, Abe tried to avoid topics that could easily irritate China, such as the South China Sea issue and strategies of free and open Indian Ocean and Pacific. President Xi Jinping in his speech emphasized that the key to improving and developing the bilateral relations was “mutual trust”.

JAPAN EXPLORES ECONOMIC COOPERATION WITHIN “BELT AND ROAD”INITIATIVE FRAMEWORK

Due to the deterioration of China-Japan relations caused by the Japanese government’s illegal purchase of the Diaoyu Islands, economic diplomacy has become one of the main channels for dialogue between the two countries. With the increase of its economic strength, China’s concepts and ideas of regional cooperation and economic integration have not only been recognized by East Asian countries but also by the international community, which has actively got themselves involved. This has led some in Japan’s ruling party and the business community to question the Abe administration’s blind hyping up of the “China Threat”. They increasingly demand the government to improve relations with China, which makes it possible for the Abe government to adjust its China strategy.

First of all, China and Japan held the Sixth Finance Ministers’ Dialogue to further deepen bilateral financial and economic pragmatic cooperation.China is Japan’s largest trading partner and largest destination for export while Japan is China’s second largest trading partner and a major source of foreign investment. Both sides have a high degree of dependence on each other, and the Japanese economy relies more on China, not the opposite. Due to the deterioration of China-Japan relations, trade and investment between the two coun-tries have been continuously declining in recent years, which has produced a negative impact that cannot be underestimated on the economic development of both countries. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso and Chinese Minister of Finance Xiao Jie held talks in Baden of Germany on March 19, 2017. Both agreed to hold China-Japan Finance Ministers’ Dialogue in Japan as soon as possible. The Dialogue would be a platform to exchange ideas on economic policies and should be attended by financial ministers from both countries.The Sixth China-Japan Finance Ministers’ Dialogue was held in Japan on May 6, 2017. The finance ministers of the two countries agreed that the dialogue between the Chinese and Japanese finance ministers was of great significance to both sides and would help the two countries communicate in depth with each other on macroeconomic situation and policies.

Secondly, the Japanese delegation from the business community explored to promote cooperation between Japan and China to open up markets. Yoshimitsu Kobayashi, chairman of Japan Association of Corporate Executives, said in May 2017 that Japan should actively explore ways to join the international financial institution Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank led by China.President of Japan Business Federation Sadayuki Sakakibara also believed “it is an effective financial function to meet the demand for infrastructure (in Asia)”,and asked the Japanese government to actively deal with it. A delegation of about 250 members from Japan-China Economic Association, Japan Business Federation and Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry visited Beijing on November 20, 2017. The two sides held a meeting to improve economic exchanges with senior Chinese executives, and conducted discussion and exchanges on how to improve cooperation in infrastructure building and resources development in a third country in Asia.The Japanese delegation proposed to meet with the Chinese leaders. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang held talks with the Japanese economic delegation on November 21. Both sides reached consensus on advancing economic cooperation in Asia-Pacific region. Premier Li Keqiang said that the relations between the two countries were gradually improving and showed a turn for the better, and the foundation for further improvement must be consolidated. He also expressed the hope that the Japanese economic community could make new contributions to the development of bilateral relations. In response, Sadayuki Sakakibara, the president of Japan Business Federation, said “as the basis for the development of economic relations,I hope a stable political and diplomatic relations between the two countries can be strengthened, and both sides should seek to maintain good ties by holding summit talks”. The delegation and China’s National Development and Reform Commission held talks in Beijing on November 23.Sadayuki Sakakibara said,“global industrial cooperation including‘Belt and Road’ Initiative brings prosperity not only for the two countries,but also for the rest of the world”. He pointed out the significance of “Belt and Road” Initiative and showed positive attitude towards Japanese companies’ engagement. He believed that corporate cooperation centering on infrastructure and environment “has huge potential”.Sakakibara also stressed that he hoped“the two countries can expand a win-win relationship and build new relations”.

JAPAN LAUNCHES ALL-ROUND DIPLOMATIC DIALOGUE AND CONSULTATION WITH CHINA

In 2017 and at the beginning of 2018,the Abe administration has been able to follow the “Four-point Agreementin-principle” and gradually restarted dialog and consultation with China in various fields and departments such as politics, diplomacy and security. It has showed “positive” gesture and willingness to ease up bilateral relationship and make it return to the trajectory of the “four political documents between China and Japan”.

Firstly, China and Japan held the fourth high-level political dialogue and China warned the Japanese side to “do things according to rules”. The then Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi said in his visit to Japan from May 29 to 31, 2017 that the China-Japan relationship was now at a crucial juncture of the 45thanniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations. The two sides should review the original intention behind the normalization of diplomatic relationship.In the spirit of taking history as a mirror and looking forward into the future, cement political foundation, and properly manage differences to promote continuous improvement of China-Japan ties. The two sides also reached an agreement on using international multilateral occasions to hold summit dialogues and improve bilateral ties.

Secondly, China and Japan held highlevel consultations on marine affairs and made progress on establishing and launching maritime and air liaison mechanism across defense sectors.China and Japan held the seventh and eighth rounds of high-level consultations on China-Japan marine affairs respectively in Fukuoka in June and Shanghai in December 2017. Attendees from departments of diplomacy,national defense, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, environmental protection and maritime law enforcement of both countries discussed specific areas and ways of carrying out maritime cooperation and exchanges between China and Japan. The high-level maritime affairs consultation mechanism is a comprehensive communication and coordination mechanism for affairs regarding sea between the two countries.It plays an important role for both sides to maintain positive and effective communication on the East China Sea issue,manage potential crisis, maintain stability of the East China Sea and promote maritime cooperation.

Thirdly, China and Japan, within the regular dialogue framework of“China-Japan Ruling Party Exchange Mechanism”, showed intentions to develop strategic reciprocal ties. From August 7 to 9, 2017, the sixth meeting of the ruling party exchange mechanism between China and Japan was held in Tokyo. Song Tao, Minister of the International Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, led a Chinese delegation to attend the meeting. Secretary-general of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Toshihiro Nikai said in a speech at the meeting that “no matter what difficult subject the Japan-China relations are faced with, our strategic reciprocal relations should never be shaken”. LDP President Shinzo Abe met with Song Tao and spoke highly of the result and significance of his meeting with President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Hamburg. Abe hoped that the ruling parties of both nations can play a positive role in improving and developing ties between Japan and China.He said the Japanese side was ready to work with China, expand exchange and cooperation and promote an in-depth development of the strategic reciprocal relations between the two nations.

And fourthly, China and Japan held the fifteenth security dialogue and China hoped that the Japanese side would adhere to peaceful development. The China-Japan security dialogue mechanism is an important channel for the diplomatic and defense departments of the two nations to communicate on bilateral relations, national defense security policies, and international and regional issues of common concern.The Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou and Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs Takeo Akiba of Japan co-chaired the 15thChina-Japan Security Dialogue in Tokyo, Japan on October 27, 2017. On the same day, Kong met with Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono and said that China and Japan had seen increased positive interaction recently but were still faced with complex factors, and disturbing factors should be concretely eliminated and the momentum for the improvement of bilateral relations consolidated. Kono congratulated China for successfully convening the 19thNational Congress of the CPC and said Japan valued relations with China and was ready to work with China to promote growth of bilateral relations.

MOTIVES BEHIND JAPAN’S CHINA POLICY ADJUSTMENT AND DIRECTION OF CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS

Recently, Abe has adjusted China policy from the “bet-hedging” strategy.He has made more efforts to contain China in terms of East Asian security,but at the same time he has sought to strengthen cooperation with China in economic and trade fields. Taking the“45thanniversary of normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and China” as a chance, Japan has greatly promoted high-level exchanges between the two countries, sounded out China on cooperation within the framework of the “Belt and Road” Initiative,and started to launch an all-round diplomatic dialogue and consultation in various fields with China. What has happened shows that the Abe administration’s adjustment of China policy is to hype up the “China Threat” and take the tactics of showing gesture to ease up Japan-China tensions to the international community, with the aim of trying to blame deterioration of the China-Japan relations on China and showcasing Japan’s strategic tactics of pursing “valueoriented diplomacy” and “strategic diplomacy”. Abe’s China strategy aims at containing China by way of relying on the Japan-US alliance and maritime security cooperation with South China Sea claimants, and at the same time seeking economic interests by way of regional cooperation proposed by China’s“Belt and Road” Initiative. The Japanese coalition government is divided in the regard. In 2017, Secretary-general of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Toshihiro Nikai and Secretary-general of Komeito Party Yoshihisa Inoue, who had attended the China-Japan Ruling Party Exchange Mechanism meeting twice, called on the Abe administration to promote and develop strategic reciprocal relations between Japan and China, and stressed the “Belt and Road” Initiative China has promoted is “an idea of huge potential”. The Joint Initiative reached at the seventh meeting of the ruling party exchange mechanism between China and Japan in December 2017 made it clear that both sides are ready to continuously improve bilateral pragmatic cooperation,actively promote regional economic integration, and promote cooperation between Chinese and Japanese businesses in third-party markets; and both are ready to actively explore specific cooperation projects between the two countries on the basis of the “Belt and Road” Initiative.

Japan Business Federation has also sent delegations to China to discuss ways for regional cooperation between Japan and China within the framework of “Belt and Road” Initiative. The Chinese side has realized the Japanese business community and its ruling coalition have the willingness to improve ties with China and strengthen regional economic cooperation, and so hopes that the Japanese government can change its containment policy towards China, maintain China-Japan relations out of the common interests of East Asia, return to the trajectory of the four political documents between China and Japan, fully implement the Four-point Agreement-in-principle and make efforts to promote the normal development of China-Japan ties.

Indeed, there are still various kinds of instabilities between China and Japan, and it remains to be a tortuous journey to realize the strategic reciprocal relations between China and Japan.Just as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said during the Two Sessions in 2018,“I hope that the Japanese will have political credibility and act accordingly to cement the political foundation of our relations and give effect to the political understanding that ‘China and Japan see each other as partners, not threats’”.The Abe administration should follow the will of the Japanese business community to seek mutual benefit and winwin results out of “the Belt and Road”Initiative and ruling coalition’s intention of easing up tensions with China, adjust its China policy according to domestic and international condition changes,stop hyping up the “China Threat”, and completely abandon its “bet-hedging”strategy and return to the trajectory of the China-Japan four political documents as soon as possible. Earnestly implementing the Four-point Agreementin-principle between China and Japan is the only right way to develop a strategic reciprocal relations between the two nations.