當(dāng)前我國農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中的養(yǎng)分需求分析

李書田，劉曉永，何萍, 2

（1 中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)資源與農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)劃研究所，北京 100081；2 國際植物營養(yǎng)研究所北京辦事處，北京 100081）

當(dāng)前我國農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中的養(yǎng)分需求分析

李書田1,2，劉曉永1，何萍1, 2

（1 中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)資源與農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)劃研究所，北京 100081；2 國際植物營養(yǎng)研究所北京辦事處，北京 100081）

【目的】估算當(dāng)前我國不同區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中的養(yǎng)分需求和化肥需求，對如何實現(xiàn)2020年化肥零增長以及零增長下如何進行養(yǎng)分資源的合理分配、科學(xué)管理和施用具有重要的指導(dǎo)意義和參考價值?！痉椒ā勘狙芯恳罁?jù)國家統(tǒng)計最新數(shù)據(jù)、研究結(jié)果和文獻資料，以省級為單元，系統(tǒng)估算了農(nóng)作物、林地、草地、水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖全面實現(xiàn)平衡施肥條件下對氮磷鉀養(yǎng)分的需求量。在考慮有機肥養(yǎng)分有效還田基礎(chǔ)上，分析當(dāng)前化肥消費量與化肥需求量的差異?！窘Y(jié)果】當(dāng)前我國農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)需要氮磷鉀養(yǎng)分共8410萬t，其中N 3746萬t、P2O52024萬t、K2O 2640萬t，糧食作物、蔬菜/瓜果、果樹和茶葉、油料作物、纖維作物、糖料作物、飼草/草地、水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖的養(yǎng)分需求分別占總需求的41.8%、20.8%、13.1%、5.1%、2.3%、2.1%、10.6%和2.2%。華北、長江中下游、西北、西南、東南、東北地區(qū)的養(yǎng)分需求分別占20.3%、23.2%、18.8%、16.8%、11.1%和9.8%，其中山東、河南和四川對養(yǎng)分的需求高于其他省份。當(dāng)前全國化肥消費量為6023萬t，其中N、P2O5、K2O分別為3001萬t、1943萬t和1079萬t，東北、華北、長江中下游、東南、西南、西北地區(qū)的化肥消費量分別占全國化肥消費量的10.6%、27.7%、24.4%、11.5%、11.4%、14.2%。我國當(dāng)前有機肥養(yǎng)分資源潛力為N 3200萬t、P2O51440萬t和K2O 3400萬t，但還田的有效養(yǎng)分約為N 484萬t、P2O5411萬t和K2O 1273萬t。有機肥還田主要在河北、河南、山東、四川和湖南省，其次是廣東、廣西、云南，而西北、東北及東南沿海地區(qū)各省有機肥還田的有效養(yǎng)分量相對較少?；氏M與需求差表明，全國氮肥和鉀肥供應(yīng)不足，分別虧缺約N 261萬t和K2O 288萬t，而磷肥投入過量約P2O5330萬t。但不同省份和區(qū)域間化肥供需具有較大差異，東北、華北、長江中下游或東南地區(qū)的一些省份如吉林、河北、河南、山東、安徽、江蘇、湖北、廣東省氮磷鉀肥均過量，而西北和西南地區(qū)多數(shù)省份的化肥投入不足?！窘Y(jié)論】糧食作物是養(yǎng)分需求的主體，其次是蔬菜和果樹。在全面實現(xiàn)平衡施肥的情況下，氮、鉀肥投入不足，磷肥投入過量。養(yǎng)分需求地區(qū)間差異明顯，東北、華北、長江中下游和東南沿海地區(qū)需適當(dāng)減少肥料消費，而西北和西南地區(qū)需要依據(jù)需求適量增加肥料的投入。

養(yǎng)分需求；化肥消費量；化肥需求量；有機肥養(yǎng)分；肥料差

建國以來我國人口不斷增加，到2015年達13.75億[1]，因此需要在有限的耕地上生產(chǎn)越來越多的糧、棉、油、水果、蔬菜及其他農(nóng)產(chǎn)品以滿足人口不斷增長的需求。而作物生產(chǎn)離不開植物營養(yǎng)，化肥是作物的糧食。國內(nèi)外研究表明，化肥施用對糧食增產(chǎn)的貢獻為40%～60%[2–3]。1978年到2015年，我國糧食總產(chǎn)從3.1億t增加到6.57億t，年均增長率為2.1%，近20年來水果和蔬菜產(chǎn)量年均增長率分別為 6.4%和9.8%，與此同時氮、磷、鉀化肥消費量也從880萬t增加到6023萬t，年均增長率達到5.3%[1]。由此說明，化肥在我國糧食產(chǎn)量增加和保證糧食安全中起著不可替代的支撐作用，可以說沒有化肥就沒有中國農(nóng)業(yè)的發(fā)展，也就不可能有糧食總產(chǎn)十連增。當(dāng)前我國已成為世界化肥消費大國，消費量占世界化肥消費量的1/3以上，施用上存在一系列不合理現(xiàn)象，如，部分地區(qū)作物上施肥過量、化肥利用率低、環(huán)境污染風(fēng)險等。因此，估算當(dāng)前我國不同區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中的養(yǎng)分需求和化肥需求，對如何實現(xiàn)化肥零增長和零增長下如何進行養(yǎng)分的科學(xué)管理具有重要的意義和參考價值。許多研究者在不同階段針對農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的特點和人口對糧食需求等對我國化肥的需求量進行一系列研究、分析與預(yù)測[4–8]，對指導(dǎo)我國化肥的生產(chǎn)、分配和施用起到了重要的指導(dǎo)作用，但這些研究數(shù)據(jù)需要進一步更新與完善。隨著種植業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的改變、高產(chǎn)品種應(yīng)用、果樹蔬菜種植面積不斷增加以及經(jīng)濟林、人工草地和水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖面積不斷擴大等，使得農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)對養(yǎng)分的需求將會進一步增加并發(fā)生很大變化[9–10]。再加上近期中國政府提出全面實現(xiàn)平衡施肥，到2020年實現(xiàn)化肥零增長目標，如何實現(xiàn)這一目標并利用現(xiàn)有肥料資源保持我國農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)穩(wěn)步增長，是植物營養(yǎng)學(xué)科面臨的新任務(wù)和挑戰(zhàn)。因此，弄清當(dāng)前農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)全面實現(xiàn)平衡施肥前提下對養(yǎng)分和化肥的需求，對如何實現(xiàn)化肥零增長目標非常必要。本研究依據(jù)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)、前期試驗研究和文獻資料在省級尺度上開展以下研究：1) 當(dāng)前農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)(包括農(nóng)作物、林地、草地、水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖)對氮、磷、鉀的需求；2) 畜禽糞肥和秸稈養(yǎng)分的有效還田量；3) 化肥需求與消費差異。

1 材料與方法

1.1 養(yǎng)分需求

基于農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中農(nóng)作物、林地、草地和水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖面積和推薦施肥量計算。農(nóng)作物種植面積參照2015年國家統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)[1]；林地面積包括竹林、速生樹種和育苗面積[11]；草地面積是牧草種植面積，指年末保留種草面積[12]；水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖面積指淡水養(yǎng)殖，包括池塘、河溝、湖泊和水庫養(yǎng)魚[13]。農(nóng)作物推薦施肥量基于國際植物營養(yǎng)研究所 (IPNI) 前期多年試驗數(shù)據(jù)和參考文獻而得 (表1)，林地、草地、水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖推薦施肥量依據(jù)參考文獻的平均施肥量 (表2)。各地區(qū)養(yǎng)分 (N、P2O5、K2O) 需求計算如下：

表 1 各種作物的養(yǎng)分推薦施用量Table 1 Nutrient recommendation for various crops

式中：i表示第i種作物；Aci表示第i作物種植面積(萬hm2)；Fci表示第i種作物推薦施肥量 (kg/hm2)；Fa、Ga、Aqa分別表示林地、草地和水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖面積(萬hm2)；Ff、Gf、Aqf分別表示林地、草地和水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖推薦施肥量 (kg/hm2)。

表 2 經(jīng)濟林、草地和水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖的養(yǎng)分推薦施用量 (kg/hm2)Table 2 Nutrient recommendations for economic forest, grassland and aquaculture

1.2 化肥消費量

化肥消費量按照2015年統(tǒng)計的各省化肥消費量計算[1]，氮、磷、鉀化肥消費量包括單質(zhì)化肥和復(fù)合肥，其中復(fù)合肥部分的氮、磷、鉀比例不清楚，需進行估算。本研究中復(fù)合肥的氮、磷、鉀比例按照《2015全國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品成本收益資料匯編》[149]中各地區(qū)各種作物上磷酸一銨、磷酸二銨、復(fù)合 (混) 肥的施用量計算而得 (表 3)。

1.3 有機肥還田的有效養(yǎng)分量

通過畜禽糞肥、人糞尿和秸稈還田的養(yǎng)分量參照我們最近的研究數(shù)據(jù)[150]。通過人糞尿還田的數(shù)量按照每人每年帶入農(nóng)田 N 1.0 kg、P2O50.57 kg、K2O 0.30 kg，分別相當(dāng)于資源量的18.5%、28.1%和15.9%。畜禽糞肥和秸稈還田的養(yǎng)分以有機態(tài)養(yǎng)分為主，需經(jīng)礦化釋放出無機態(tài)養(yǎng)分才能被作物吸收利用。因此，通過畜禽糞便和秸稈還田的養(yǎng)分對當(dāng)季作物并不都是有效的，只有當(dāng)季釋放出的養(yǎng)分才能供作物吸收利用。因此，畜禽糞肥和秸稈還田的有效養(yǎng)分量 = 養(yǎng)分還田量×當(dāng)季養(yǎng)分釋放率 (%)。其中，當(dāng)季養(yǎng)分釋放率是參考有關(guān)文獻資料計算而得的平均釋放率 (表4)

1.4 肥料差

肥料差指化肥消費量與化肥需求量之差，計算如下：

肥料差 = 化肥消費量 – 化肥需求量

其中：化肥消費量為2015年國家統(tǒng)計局的化肥消費數(shù)據(jù)；化肥需求量 = 養(yǎng)分需求量 – 有機肥還田的有效養(yǎng)分量；肥料差為正值，說明化肥投入過量，肥料差為負值，說明化肥投入不足。

2 結(jié)果與分析

2.1 養(yǎng)分需求

通過作物的播種面積和養(yǎng)分推薦施用量計算出作物對N、P2O5、K2O的需求分別為3746萬t、2024萬t和2640萬t，共約8410萬t。其中，糧食作物包括谷類、豆類和薯類的養(yǎng)分需求約占總需求的41.8%，蔬菜/瓜果占20.6%，果樹和茶葉占13.1%，油料、纖維和糖料分別占5.1%、2.3%和2.1%，草地約占10.6%，水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖占2.2% (表5)。

本研究按照中國糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)劃分區(qū)域[172]進行分析和討論 (下同)。不同地區(qū)作物不同，因此養(yǎng)分需求也存在差異 (圖1)。農(nóng)作物主要種植區(qū)如華北地區(qū)和長江中下游地區(qū)則需要的養(yǎng)分較多，兩個地區(qū)養(yǎng)分需求分別占全國總需求的20.3%和23.2%。其次是西北地區(qū)和西南地區(qū)，分別占18.8%和16.8%，東北地區(qū)和東南地區(qū)分別占9.8% 和11.1%。山東、河南和四川省對養(yǎng)分的需求高于其他省份。

2.2 當(dāng)前化肥的消費及分布狀況

化肥是農(nóng)田養(yǎng)分投入的主要來源，2015年全國化肥消費量達6023萬t，其中N、P2O5、K2O分別為3001萬t、1943萬t和1079萬t。東北、華北、長江中下游、東南、西南、西北地區(qū)的化肥消費量分別占全國化肥消費量的10.6%、27.7%、24.4%、11.5%、11.4%、14.2% (圖1)。山東、河南是化肥主要消費省份。華北地區(qū)化肥消費占全國的比例高于該區(qū)域養(yǎng)分需求占全國的比例，而西南和西北地區(qū)化肥消費占全國的比例則低于這兩個地區(qū)養(yǎng)分需求所占的比例。然而養(yǎng)分投入過量與否不僅取決于化肥投入的多少，還受其他養(yǎng)分來源尤其是有機肥養(yǎng)分投入的影響。

表 3 2015年各省化肥消費量中復(fù)合肥的氮、磷、鉀比例Table 3 The ratios of N, P2O5 and K2O in compound fertilizers consumed in various provinces in 2015

2.3 有機肥養(yǎng)分還田量

近期研究表明[150]，中國有機肥資源(包括糞肥和農(nóng)作物秸稈)養(yǎng)分資源潛力為N 3200萬t、P2O51440萬t和K2O 3400萬t。這些有機肥養(yǎng)分可替代或補充部分化肥以滿足作物對養(yǎng)分的需求，有助于實現(xiàn)2020年化肥零增長目標。當(dāng)前畜禽糞肥的氮、磷、鉀養(yǎng)分還田比例約為32%、57%和52%，秸稈的氮、磷、鉀養(yǎng)分還田比例約為34%、49%和50%。然而，這些還田的有機肥養(yǎng)分當(dāng)季不能全部釋放為有效養(yǎng)分供作物吸收利用。由此，按有機肥回田量和當(dāng)季養(yǎng)分釋放率估算出通過畜禽糞肥、秸稈和人糞尿投入的氮、磷、鉀有效養(yǎng)分量約為2168萬t，包括 N 484 萬 t、P2O5411 萬 t和 K2O 1273 萬 t，其中磷主要來源于畜禽糞肥，而鉀主要來源于畜禽糞肥和作物秸稈 (表6)。有機肥有效養(yǎng)分還田主要在河北、河南、山東、四川和湖南省，其次是廣東、廣西、云南，而西北、東北及東南沿海各省通過有機肥還田的有效養(yǎng)分相對較少 (圖1)。

2.4 化肥消費量與化肥需求量差異分析

通過計算，氮磷鉀養(yǎng)分總需求量減去有機肥還田的氮磷鉀有效養(yǎng)分量即為所需要的氮磷鉀化肥養(yǎng)分量，即為 6243 萬 t，包括 N 3262 萬 t、P2O51613 t和K2O 1367萬t?；市枨罅颗c2015年化肥消費量比較便得出當(dāng)前化肥消費量與化肥需求量的差值(表7，圖1)。從全國范圍來看氮肥和鉀肥投入不足，分別虧缺N 261萬t和K2O 288萬t，而磷肥的投入過量約P2O5330萬t。這些數(shù)據(jù)是在假設(shè)作物、經(jīng)濟林、人工草地和水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖全面實現(xiàn)平衡施肥的情況下估算而得。

不同省份化肥供需差具有很大差異，東北地區(qū)、華北地區(qū)、長江中下游地區(qū)或東南地區(qū)的一些省份如吉林、河北、河南、山東、安徽、江蘇、湖北、廣東省的氮、磷、鉀肥消費全部過量，需要降低投入量，而西北和西南地區(qū)的多數(shù)省份的肥料消費不足，需要增加化肥的投入量 (圖1)。

3 討論

3.1 養(yǎng)分需求量估算

由于受土壤、氣候、作物種類等多種因素影響，至今尚無可靠、準確的養(yǎng)分需求量估算方法。對農(nóng)作物養(yǎng)分需求量的估算可根據(jù)作物產(chǎn)量和單位產(chǎn)量所需養(yǎng)分吸收量計算，但采用這種方法需要了解土壤肥力參數(shù)、作物養(yǎng)分吸收參數(shù)和養(yǎng)分利用率等，尤其需要了解作物吸收的養(yǎng)分有多少來源于土壤，多少來源于施肥，至今還沒有足夠的調(diào)查與研究數(shù)據(jù)可以建立這些參數(shù)。因此，采用田間肥效試驗法得出的適宜養(yǎng)分推薦量結(jié)合種植面積計算養(yǎng)分需求量更實用和可行[5–6]，可全面了解不同地區(qū)、不同作物對養(yǎng)分需求的差異，指導(dǎo)肥料的生產(chǎn)、分配和施用。本研究利用農(nóng)作物、林地、草地、水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖面積和適宜的養(yǎng)分推薦量對農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)養(yǎng)分需求進行估算，不同作物適宜養(yǎng)分推薦量是基于多年研究數(shù)據(jù)和相關(guān)文獻而得的養(yǎng)分平均推薦量。各種作物的試驗研究和文獻資料基本能反映作物主產(chǎn)區(qū)的土壤肥力、作物品種、灌溉條件、氣象條件等，所得出的養(yǎng)分推薦量具有代表性。另外，鑒于目前沒有各種作物上的施肥面積的比例數(shù)據(jù)，本研究在國家倡導(dǎo)全面實現(xiàn)平衡施肥前提下，假設(shè)各種作物全面平衡施肥基礎(chǔ)上進行的估算，代表最高養(yǎng)分需求量，也為實現(xiàn)平衡施肥全面普及下的養(yǎng)分需求提供依據(jù)和參考。

表 4 畜禽糞肥和作物秸稈養(yǎng)分的當(dāng)季釋放率Table 4 In-season nutrient release rate from manure and crop residues

注 （Note）：a)糧食作物包括谷物、豆類和薯類 Grain crops include cereals, beans and potatoes; 括號內(nèi)的數(shù)據(jù)為占養(yǎng)分需求總量的比例The data in brackets are the percent of total nutrient requirement (%).

表 6 有機肥資源還田的有效養(yǎng)分量 (×104 t)Table 6 The amount of returned available nutrients through organic sources

圖1 不同省份農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)養(yǎng)分需求量、肥料消費量、有機肥回田有效養(yǎng)分量和肥料消費與肥料需求差Fig. 1 Nutrient requirement, fertilizer consumption, available nutrient returned from organic sources and fertilizer gaps in agricultural production by province

表 7 2015年化肥消費量與化肥需求量差 (×104 t)Table 7 Gaps between fertilizer supply and demand in 2015

3.2 化肥消費量中復(fù)合肥的氮、磷、鉀估算方法

自1980年以來，氮磷鉀化肥消費量迅速增加，由1980年的1285萬t增加到2015年的6023萬t，增加近3.7倍，而其中復(fù)合肥所占的比例由1980年的2.1%增加到2015年36.1%，增加了16倍多。統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)中復(fù)合肥的氮、磷、鉀養(yǎng)分比例一直不明確，因此，準確估算復(fù)合肥中的氮、磷、鉀比例和數(shù)量對全面了解不同地區(qū)化肥的供給與需求十分重要。李家康等[5]曾按照進口和國產(chǎn)復(fù)合肥如一銨、二銨的實際養(yǎng)分量計算，復(fù)合 (混) 肥中的N、P2O5、K2O按1∶0.8∶0.8比計算。李書田和金繼運[172]計算消費量中復(fù)合肥的N、P2O5、K2O是按照東北地區(qū)1∶2.0∶2.0，華北、西北地區(qū)1∶1.5∶0.4，長江中下游、西南、東南各省1∶1∶0.8計算。本研究根據(jù)發(fā)改委2015年的《全國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品成本收益資料匯編》[149]中不同省份每種作物上一銨、二銨、三元素復(fù)合肥、混配肥的施用量以及各自的養(yǎng)分含量估算各省通過復(fù)合肥施用的氮、磷、鉀用量和比例(表 3)，其中三元復(fù)合 (混) 肥的 N、P2O5、K2O 按1∶1∶1計算。按照這種方法計算的復(fù)合肥氮、磷、鉀養(yǎng)分加上單質(zhì)氮、磷、鉀肥消費量，全國N、P2O5、K2O總消費量分別為3001萬t、1943萬t和1079萬t，與利用2015年各種復(fù)合肥資源量 (即國產(chǎn) + 進口 – 出口)[173]中 N、P2O5、K2O 比例 1∶1.70∶0.73計算后得出的全國N、P2O5、K2O總消費量2996萬t、1921萬t和1105萬t相比基本一致，但有些省份兩種計算方法的氮、磷、鉀消費量有一定差異，可能與按資源量中復(fù)合肥氮磷鉀比例計算時各省使用同一比例有關(guān)。因此，本研究根據(jù)各省復(fù)合肥的實際施用情況估算氮、磷、鉀比例更能反映各省的實際情況。

3.3 有機肥在化肥零增長中的地位

我國有機肥資源可提供8000多萬t的氮磷鉀養(yǎng)分，是作物營養(yǎng)的主要來源之一，科學(xué)施用有機肥不僅為植物提供養(yǎng)分，還能培肥土壤、增加土壤肥力。畜禽糞肥和作物秸稈是有機肥資源的主要組成部分，目前只有1/3左右的氮和50%左右的磷、鉀能有效還田[150]，其余養(yǎng)分尤其是氮素有相當(dāng)部分在收集、處理和保存中損失或廢棄，并對環(huán)境造成一定污染。因此，充分利用有機肥資源，減少養(yǎng)分損失，增加有效還田比例，是實現(xiàn)2020年化肥零增長目標的可靠保障。從前面分析可知，在全面平衡施肥情況下目前還分別有261萬t化肥氮和 288萬t化肥K2O投入不足，有機肥替代就是很好的補充方法。根據(jù)1980～2015年每5年化肥消費年均增長率變化趨勢分析 (圖2)，2015～2020化肥消費年均增長率不會超過2010～2015的年均增長率1.6%，按照這一增長率，到2020年化肥消費量將不會超過6520萬t，比2015年增加約500萬t。增加有機肥的養(yǎng)分投入就可降低化肥消費增長率，降低2020年化肥消費峰值。

圖2 1980～2015年每5年化肥消費年均增長率變化Fig. 2 Evolution of annual average increase rate of chemical fertilizer consumption in every 5 years from 1980 to 2015

當(dāng)然，有機肥不是施用越多越好，有機肥尤其畜禽糞肥中含有有害物質(zhì)如重金屬等，存在造成土壤和作物產(chǎn)品某些重金屬超標的風(fēng)險[174–177]。至于施用多少有機肥合適需要綜合考慮有機肥種類、重金屬含量、土壤酸堿度和重金屬本底值以及作物種類等，有待深入研究制定有機肥施用限量標準。但值得強調(diào)的是，用有機肥養(yǎng)分替代化肥養(yǎng)分需要考慮有機肥當(dāng)季可供作物吸收的部分，不是簡單的總量替代，否則可能導(dǎo)致養(yǎng)分供應(yīng)不足，影響作物產(chǎn)量。

4 結(jié)論

糧食作物是養(yǎng)分需求的主體，其次是蔬菜和果樹。在農(nóng)作物、林地、草地、水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖全面實現(xiàn)平衡施肥情況下，目前氮、鉀肥投入不足，磷肥投入過量。不同省份和區(qū)域養(yǎng)分需求、化肥消費量、有機肥還田的有效養(yǎng)分以及化肥消費與化肥需求差都存在著明顯差異。東北、華北、長江中下游和東南沿海地區(qū)一些省份需適當(dāng)減少肥料投入，而西北和西南地區(qū)多數(shù)省份可依據(jù)養(yǎng)分需求適量增加肥料投入。因此，要根據(jù)養(yǎng)分和肥料需求的地區(qū)差異，合理分配肥料資源，提高肥料利用效率。

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Analyses on nutrient requirements in current agriculture production in China

LI Shu-tian1,2, LIU Xiao-yong1, HE Ping1, 2
( 1 Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;2 International Plant Nutrition Institute Beijing Office, Beijing 100081, China )

【Objectives】Analyses of the nutrient requirements in current agricultural production and estimation of the chemical fertilizer demand in China will provide theoretical reference for the reliance of zero growth of chemical fertilizers by 2020, and also provide practical guide for rationally distribute, scientifically manage and apply nutrient resources under the situation of zero growth of chemical fertilizers.【Methods】Based on latest national statistical data, research data and literature review, this study made systematic estimation on N, P and K requirements by crops, forest, grassland and aquiculture under balance fertilization at a provincial level. The fertilizer gaps among fertilizer need and current consumption were also estimated considering recycle of available nutrients from organic sources.【Results】The current N, P2O5, K2O requirements in China's agricultural production were 3746×104t for N, 2024×104t for P2O5and 2640×104t for K2O, respectively, with a total of 8410×104t. Grain crops, vegetables/melons, fruits/tea, oil crops, fiber crops, sugar crops, forage/grassland andaquiculture were accounted for 41.8%, 20.8%, 13.1%, 5.1%, 2.3%, 2.1%, 10.6% and 2.2% of total nutrient requirements, respectively. Northcentral (NC), Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangzi River (MLRY), Northwest(NW), Southwest (SW), Southeast (SE) and Northeast (NE) region were accounted for 20.3%, 23.2%, 18.8%,16.8%, 11.1% and 9.8%, respectively, while nutrient requirements in Shandong, Henan and Sichuan were more than other provinces. Among the total nutrient consumption in China, chemical fertilizer was 6023×104t including 3001×104t N, 1943×104t P2O5and 1079×104t K2O; the consumption distribution in NE, NC, MLRY, SE, SW and NW was accounted for 10.6%, 27.7%, 24.4%, 11.5%, 11.4% and 14.2%, respectively. The organic nutrient capacity was 3200×104t N, 1440×104t P2O5and 3400×104t K2O, but the available nutrient returned to cropland was estimated to be 484×104t N, 411×104t P2O5, 1273×104t K2O. Organic nutrient return was mainly distributed in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Sichuan and Hunan provinces, followed by Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan provinces, while relative small amount in NW, NE and SE regions. Gaps between fertilizer consumption and fertilizer demand indicated that N and K inputs were not enough as a whole in China, N and K2O inputs were respectively in deficit of 261×104t and 288×104t, while P inputs were overused with 330×104t P2O5surplus. Great difference existed in fertilizer gaps among provinces and regions. In some provinces of NE, NC, MLRY or SE regions such as Jilin, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei and Guangdong provinces, N, P and K fertilizers were all overused, but fertilizer inputs in most provinces of NW and SW regions were insufficient.【Conclusions】Grain crops were the main nutrient demander, followed by vegetables and fruit trees. Under the hypothesis of balanced fertilization achieved in all crops and areas, nitrogen and potassium fertilizer inputs were insufficient, and phosphate fertilizer inputs were excessive. Great variations existed among regions in nutrient requirement. The NE, NC, MLRY and SE coastal areas need to appropriately reduce fertilizer consumption and the NW and SW regions need to appropriately increase fertilizer inputs based on nutrient requirements.

nutrient requirement; fertilizer consumption; fertilizer demand; organic nutrient; fertilizer gap

2017–10–11 接受日期：2017–11–02

國家重點研發(fā)計劃課題（2016YFD0200103）資助。

李書田（1966—），男，河北固安人，博士，研究員，主要從事植物營養(yǎng)與施肥研究。Tel：010-82108000；E-mail：sli@ipni.net；lishutian@caas.cn