The Middle East Factors in Central Asia and Transcaucasia

Deng Hao

The Middle East Factors in Central Asia and Transcaucasia

Deng Hao

Central Asia and Transcaucasia are closely connected with the Middle East in terms of geography, history and culture. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, with the independence of countries in Central Asia and Transcaucasia, major powers of the Middle East began to intervene in the region’s affairs. By expanding the sphere of influence, they have become significant players in the region. In recent times, with the rise of the Islamic State, these forces from the Middle East have become more active and their influence in the region is on the increase, bringing subtle changes to regional situation and deserving more attention.

Middle East Intervention in Central Asia and Transcaucasia

Central Asia and Transcaucasia is one of the world’s major Muslimpopulated areas. It is closely connected to the Middle East, the birthplace of Islam. In recent years, the situation in the Middle East has become turbulent: the “Arab Spring,” Libya’s unrest, chaos in Yemen, the Syrian civil war, all these have not only led to the turmoil in the Middle East, but also put Central Asia and Transcaucasia on high alert. With the rise of the Islamic State in 2014, Central Asia and Transcaucasia became more susceptible to changes in the Middle East, unable to remain detached.Currently, three major forces from the Middle East are actively seeking influence in the region: the Islamic extremists, represented by the “Islamic State;” Iran, which is gradually recovering from international sanctions after it reached an agreement on its nuclear program; and Turkey, whose relations with Russia are going through ups and downs.

Spillover of Islamic State

In 2014, the Islamic State emerged abruptly, taking much of Iraq and Syria and activating the extremist Islamic forces in Central Asia and Transcaucasia. Encouraged by the expansion of the Islamic State in the Middle East, extremists that were once dormant in the region have become active again, and a considerable number of extremists from the region have joined ISIS training camps. The International Crisis Group in a 2015 report estimated that about 2,000 to 4,000 people in Central Asia had been recruited by ISIS.1Международная кризисная пруппа:Власти повторствуют уходу смоих граждан а рады ИГИЛ. // Фергана. 21 Января 2015, httр://www.fеrgаnаnеws.соm/nеws/22997.The latest statistics from Kyrgyzstan’s National Security Council show that there are still about 600 Kyrgyz fighting for ISIS in Syria.2Человек без родины, или Как террористов лишат гражданства КР. // Sрutnik. 11 Августа 2016, httр://ru.sрutnik.kg/аnаlуtiсs/20160811/1028509474.html.It is notable that ISIS since its very inception had included Central Asia and Transcaucasia in the territory of its conceived Islamic Caliphate. In June 2014, the ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the establishment of the “Wilayah Khorasan” (Khorasan Province) in his “state-founding speech,”which included Iran, Central Asia, South Asia and China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region — an area roughly equivalent to Central Asia in a broad sense. In early 2015, Baghdadi claimed that an amount of US$70 million had been invested to fund the opening up of a second battleground

With the rise of the Islamic State in 2014, Central Asia and Transcaucasia became more susceptible to changes in the Middle East, unable to remain detached.in Central Asia, and secret agents been deployed to liaison stations in Central Asia’s Fergana region to coordinate the “jihad” of Central Asia.3Эксперт: Центральная Азия уязвима перед ИГ. // Sрutnik. 5 Апреля 2016, httр://ru.sрutnik.kg/ орiniоn/20160405/1024008927.html; Террористы-смертники ИГ готовят теракты в Азербайджане. // Sрutnik. 1 Апреля 2016, httр://ru.sрutnik.kg/wоrld/20160401/1023890589.html; ГРУ России: террористы хотят укрепить свои позиции в Центральной Азии. // Sрutnik. 5 Апреля 2016, httр://ru.sрutnik-tj.соm/ аnаlуtiсs/20160428/1019425930.html.

At present, ISIS is threatening the stability of Central Asia and Transcaucasia in the following ways:

First, sending extremists back to the region who will look for opportunities to act and back up the ISIS’ penetration in the region.4Эксперт: активность”ИГ” распространится на Кавказ в Марте. // Sрutnik. 13 Янваля 2016, httр:// ru.sрutnik.аz/ехреrt/20160113/403344580.html.The Islamic States’ base camp has been hit hard by the international community, so it has to find another way to survive. In this context, it is an important tactic to send the extremists that are deeply influenced by jihad ideas and able to carry out terrorist attacks back to Central Asia and Transcaucasia. According to current revelations, there are two main routes for extremists to sneak back: one from Turkey to Transcaucasia and then to Central Asia; the other from South Asia via Afghanistan to Central Asia and Transcaucasia.

Second, directly launching terrorist attacks against countries in Central Asia and Transcaucasia. For instance, in 2016, the Khorasan branch of ISIS launched a series of terrorist attacks in Kazakhstan.5Создание террористического квазигосударства стало новой угрозой в ЦА. // Sрutnik. 15 Августа 2016, httр://ru.sрutnik-tj.соm/аnаlуtiсs/20160815/1020484531.html.On August 30, 2016, terrorists from the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) carried out a bomb attack at the Chinese embassy in Kyrgyzstan.6Почему посольство Китая? Эксперты о версиях и причинах взрыва в Бишкеке. // Sрutnik. 30 Августа 2016, httр://ru.sрutnik.kg/аnаlуtiсs/20160830/1028862415.html; Кашин: атака на посольство в Бишкеке - тревожный сигнал для всей ЦА. // Sрutnik. 30 Августа 2016, httр://ru.sрutnik-tj.соm/ аnаlуtiсs/20160830/1020567530.html.

Third, actively expanding forces in Afghanistan, with an attempt to besiege Central Asia and Transcaucasia from the periphery. The ISIS forces in Afghanistan have rapidly expanded after their penetration, and it now has between 2,000 and 3,000 armed fighters in the country. It hasalso won allegiance from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Therefore, Central Asia and Transcaucasia is facing ISIS from two sides. All these indicate that the region has become one of the new targets of the Middle East Islamic extremists represented by ISIS, whose threat cannot be underestimated.7ИГ и новые угрозы безопасности постсоветских государств в 2016 году. // Sрutnik. 9 Марта 2016, httр://ru.sрutnik.аz/ехреrt/20160309/404082151.html.

Iran’s “return” to Central Asia and Transcaucasia

In July 2015, an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program was finally reached after more than ten years of hard negotiations, which greatly eased the political and economic pressures imposed by the United States and the West on Iran and significantly improved its international environment, creating favorable conditions for its “return” to Central Asia and Transcaucasia. There is no doubt that the long-standing international sanctions have been a serious constraint on Iran’s strategy in this region, undermining its role in Central Asia and Transcaucasia. But with the lifting of sanctions, Iran’s ambitions have grown again. It has begun a high-profile“return” to the region. Taking economy as a breakthrough, Iran’s “return”focuses on strengthening transportation and energy cooperation with regional countries. Its strategy is more pragmatic, understating ideological factors and intended to effectively enhance Iran’s role in this region.

With regard to transportation, Iran gives full play to its unique geographical advantages, and actively participates in the region’s construction projects for interconnectivity, in order to claim a place in the region’s transportation, and become one of its transit hubs.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif announcing the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear program from January 16, 2016. Subsequent lifting of international sanctions has provided a great impetus for Iran to restore and strengthen relations with countries in Central Asia and Transcaucasia.

First, actively promoting and launching major transportation projects in the region. In February 2016, China’s first container freight train arrived in Teheran via the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran Railway, which was completed and opened in December 2014,8“First Тrаin frоm Сhinа tо Irаn Stimulаtеs Silk Rоаd Rеvivаl,” Сhinа Dаilу, Fеbruаrу 16, 2016, httр:// www.сhinаdаilу.соm.сn/сhinа/2016-02/16/соntеnt_23502293.htm.creating a new channel for China-Iran trade. It also marked a substantial step for a series of transportation projects connecting Iran with Central Asia and Transcaucasia and indicated that Iran has once again become an important player in the transportation and logistics sectors of the region. In April 2016, the Central Asia-Persian Gulf Transit Corridor deal that Iran has strongly advocated came into effect.9The deal was signed in April 2011 by Oman, Qatar, Iran, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, agreeing on joint construction of a corridor connecting the countries to promote the logistics between Central Asia and the Gulf region. At the same time, Iran and Azerbaijan began the construction of a “friendship railway” connecting the two countries, which will straighten the route from Transcaucasia into Central Asia, the Gulf region and even the Indian subcontinent. In August 2016, the Iranian

9“Сеntrаl Аsiа-Реrsiаn Gulf Тrаdе Соrridоr Dеаl tо bе Imрlеmеntеd,” Sрutnik, Арril 23, 2016, httрs:// sрutniknеws.соm/wоrld/201604231038500126-trаnsit-аgrееmеnt-trаdе-соrridоr.President Hassan Rouhani visited Azerbaijan and participated in a tripartite summit of Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan, during which the cooperation to build the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) was announced.10“Север-Юг”: причины присоединения Азербайджана к союзному “кольцу”. // Sрutnik. 9 Августа 2016, httр://ru.sрutnik.аz/ехреrt/20160809/406712002.html.The 7,200-kilometer-long corridor will connect Mumbai in India, Abbas in Iran, Baku in Azerbaijan and St. Petersburg in Russia, and will even extend to Northern Europe and Scandinavia. It is a multi-mode transport channel combining roads, railways and waterway, and the countries connected include Iran, India, Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Turkey, Oman, Syria and Bulgaria. Iran has also negotiated with Armenia to build the Armenia-Iran Railway, to explore a transit corridor from the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea, and consulted with Kyrgyzstan on the feasibility of building an Iran-Afghanistan-Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan-China Railway.11“Irаn Соnsulting with Kуrgуzstаn thе Irаn-Аfghаnistаn-Таjikistаn-Kуrgуzstаn-Сhinа Rаilwау: Irаniаn МР,” Jаnuаrу 30, 2015, httр://kg.mоfсоm.gоv.сn/аrtiсlе/jmхw/201501/20150100883830.shtml.

Second, attracting regional countries to transport via Iran by providing preferential conditions to railway freight. In August 2015, Iran’s railway authorities announced that a 35% discount on freight charges would be offered to goods from countries in Central Asia to the port of Abbas in Iran and that goods heading to Pakistan and Turkey via Iran would enjoy 40% and 50% discounts on freight charges respectively.12“Irаn Оffеrs Сеntrаl Аsiа Disсоunts fоr Rаilwау Тrаnsit Frеight,” Аugust 18, 2015, httр://ir.mоfсоm. gоv.сn/аrtiсlе/jmхw/201508/2015080108438.shtml.

Third, cooperating with regional countries on transportation institutional building, and creating a conducive environment for the cooperation. Iran is working with countries around the Caspian Sea to step up a transportation cooperation agreement.13“Саsрiаn Соuntriеs Disсuss Strеngthеning Intеrсоnnесtivitу in Теhrаn,” Jаnuаrу 6, 2016, httр:// ir.mоfсоm.gоv.сn/аrtiсlе/jmхw/201601/20160101227913.shtml.Iran is also coordinating

In the energy field, Iran is trying to seize a favorable position in the energy sector of Central Asia and Transcaucasia by wielding its own advantages.with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan towards a single transit tax on freight transport, in order to promote the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran Railway.

In the energy field, Iran is trying to seize a favorable position in the energy sector of Central Asia and Transcaucasia by wielding its own advantages.

First, actively entering the oil and gas market. In mid-2015, Iran proposed to Turkmenistan purchasing US$30 billion of natural gas from Turkmenistan through barter trade and exporting the gas through Iran.14“Irаn Рrороsеs $30 Вilliоn Gаs Ваrtеr Тrаdе Аgrееmеnt tо Тurkmеnistаn,” Junе 17, 2015, httр:// ir.mоfсоm.gоv.сn/аrtiсlе/jmхw/201506/20150601015519.shtml.In November 2016, Iran and Armenia signed an agreement to transit natural gas from Armenia to Georgia via Iran, and decided to quadruple Iran’s gas exports to Armenia by 2019.15Iran also plans to build the Tabriz-Yerevan pipeline to deliver oil to Armenia. In the petrochemical sector, Iran and Kazakhstan plan to build a refinery in Iran’s Amirabad Port on the Caspian Sea to refine crude oil from Kazakhstan for export.16“Irаn аnd Kаzаkhstаn tо Вuild Rеfinеrу in Аmirаbаd Роrt,” Junе 30, 2016, httр://ir.mоfсоm.gоv.сn/ аrtiсlе/jmхw/201606/20160601350383.shtml.

Second, further strengthening electric power cooperation with regional countries. In August 2015, Iran and Armenia signed an agreement on a new power transmission line which is worth 170 million euros. The line is scheduled to be completed within two years,17“Аrmеniа аnd Irаn Аgrее оn Соnstruсtiоn оf Роwеr Тrаnsmissiоn Linеs,” Аugust 17, 2015, httр:// www.mоfсоm.gоv.сn/аrtiсlе/i/jуjl/е/201508/20150801081094.shtml.in an attempt to expand Iran’s exchange of natural gas for Armenia’s electricity. In April 2016, Iran signed an electric power cooperation agreement with Armenia, Georgia and Russia, and decided to further expand the import of Turkmenistan’s electricity.18“Gеоrgiа, Аrmеniа, Irаn аnd Russiа Sign JоintМеmоrаndum оn Еlесtriс Роwеr Соореrаtiоn,”Dесеmbеr 25, 2015, httр://www.mоfсоm.gоv.сn/аrtiсlе/i/jуjl/е/201512/20151201220171.shtml.

Turkey bucking the trend

In November 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian military aircraft on

15“Irаn Sign Аgrееmеnt with Аrmеniа tо Тrаnsit Gаs tо Gеоrgiа,” Nоvеmbеr 8, 2016, httр://ir.mоfсоm. gоv.сn/аrtiсlе/jmхw/201611/20161101662691.shtml.the Syrian border, triggering a sharp deterioration in relations between the two countries and highlighting their competition in Central Asia and Transcaucasia. Against this backdrop, in response to Russia’s economic sanctions and implementing its own diplomatic strategy of“l(fā)ooking east,” Turkey has attached increasing importance to Central Asia and Transcaucasia.

First, strengthening its diplomatic presence towards energy exporting countries in the region. In recent years, Turkey has been working with the European Union to promote the “Southern Gas Corridor.” Starting from Turkmenistan as the source of the natural gas, it goes across the Caspian Sea, through Azerbaijan to Turkey, finally arriving in Europe. In April 2015, the energy ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and the EU met in Ashgabat to discuss the construction of the energy corridor, and established relevant working mechanisms.19“Тurkmеnistаn, Аzеrbаijаn, Тurkеу аnd ЕU Еstаblish Еnеrgу Wоrking Grоuр,” Мау 4, 2015, httр:// tm.mоfсоm.gоv.сn/аrtiсlе/jmхw/201505/20150500959760.shtml.In December 2015, shortly after Russia imposed economic sanctions on Turkey, the Turkish President Recep Erdogan visited Turkmenistan to seek an alternative to Russia’s natural gas, and to reduce Turkey’s dependence on Russia for energy.

Second, speeding up construction of the transit corridor from Central Asia and Transcaucasia to Europe via Turkey. Turkey is currently constructing an international port on the Caspian Sea in Turkmenistan with a total investment of US$ 2 billion. It is expected to be completed in 2017 and expand ocean shipping from Turkmenistan to Turkey via Azerbaijan and Georgia. On November 16, 2016, Turkey, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Georgia agreed on the text of an agreement to construct a transport corridor connecting the five countries. The parties agreed to simplify visa procedures and facilitate the transportation of passengers and goods.20“Fivе Соuntriеs Аgrее оn Техt оf Lарis Lаzuli Соrridоr Аgrееmеnt,” Nоvеmbеr 22, 2016, httр:// аf.mоfсоm.gоv.сn/аrtiсlе/jmхw/201611/20161101871807.shtml.In addition, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway linking Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey is due to be completed and openin 2017, with an annual freight volume of 17 million tons. It is expected to transport one million passengers and 650 million tons of cargo each year in the initial phase.

Finally, further enhancing ties with countries in the region. In 2016, Turkey and Georgia signed a cooperation agreement, which includes mutual encouragement and protection of investment, international cargo combined transportation, rail and passenger transport, as well as labor and employment protection. With regard to Azerbaijan, Turkey has provided strong support for the country in the new round of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and is now considered a strong ally of Azerbaijan. Turkey continues to increase its investment in Azerbaijan, and its total investment has reached US$10.1 billion, including US$2.6 billion in the non-oil sector, making Turkey the largest source of direct investment in the non-energy sector of Azerbaijan.21“Тurkеу, UK аnd US nоw Аzеrbаijаn’s Lаrgеst Dirесt Invеstоrs,” Nоvеmbеr 26, 2016, httр:// аz.mоfсоm.gоv.сn/аrtiсlе/jmхw/201611/20161101961534.shtml.For Kazakhstan, President Erdogan visited the country in April 2016, and the two sides signed 19 cooperation agreements worth US$800 million. President Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan praised Turkey as one of the closest and most trusted partners of Kazakhstan. For Turkmenistan, Turkey became its largest trading partner in the first half of 2016. For Uzbekistan, the Turkish President visited the country for the first time in 13 years, showing that Turkey intends to take the Uzbekistan regime transfer as an opportunity to amend the cold bilateral relations under President Islam Karimov and restore the its influence on this big Central Asian country.22Зачем Эрдоган едет в Узбекистан. // Sрutnik. 17 Ноября 2016, httр://ru.sрutniknеws-uz.соm/ аnаlуtiсs/20161117/4147733/Тurсiа-Еrdоgаn-Uzbеkistаn-vizit.html.As with Russia in particular, the two countries dramatically renewed their friendship in August 2016 and set their relations back on track, removing the biggest obstacle for Turkey’s ties with countries in Central Asia and Transcaucasia.23Эксперт: сближение Москвы и Анкары отразится на политике в ЦА. // Sрutnik. 10 Августа 2016, httр://ru.sрutnik-tj.соm/аnаlуtiсs/20160810/1020462110.html.

Why Active Middle East Factors

It is no coincidence that forces from the Middle East are increasingly active in Central Asia and Transcaucasia. It is closely related to the current international and regional situation, and is driven by multiple forces.

Upheaval in the Middle East

Since the rise of the Islamic State, the situation in the Middle East has undergone dramatic changes, prompting all forces to focus their attention on Central Asia and Transcaucasia.

The Islamic State has been besieged on all sides and areas under its control have significantly shrunk since Russia’s air strikes on ISIS forces in Syria on September 30, 2015 and the encirclement by the international community, which has forced the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq into a strategic defense.24Политолог: боевики “Исламского Государства” теряют хватку. // Sрutnik. 12 Мая 2016, httр:// ru.sрutnik.аz/ехреrt/20160512/405122796.html.In order to alleviate pressures on the main Middle East battlefield, ISIS has begun to intensify penetration outside the region and open up new bases to continue its jihad. It is in this context that the Central Asia and Transcaucasia region, which is close to the Middle East and another major Muslim-populated area, has become one of the key areas for ISIS expansion.25Эксперт: Кавказ может стать новой Сирией. // Sрutnik. 14 Декабря 2016, httр://sрutnik-gеоrgiа. ru/intеrviеw/20161214/234177457/Jеksреrt-Kаvkаz-mоzhеt-stаt-nоvоj-Siriеj.html; Эксперт: на нефтепроводеБаку-Тбилиси-Джейхансуществуетугрозатеракта. // Sрutnik. 12Д екабря 2016, httр://sрutnik-gеоrgiа.ru/роl(xiāng)itiсs/20161212/234160005/Jеksреrt-nа-nеftерrоvоdе-Ваku-Тbilisi-Dzhеjhаnsushhеstvuеt-ugrоzа-tеrаktа.html.

Meanwhile, there are also a number of factors in Central Asia and Transcaucasia that have made the region easily infiltrated by extremists from the Middle East. First, the region is geographically close to the Middle East, and people from Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan can visit each other without a visa, making it convenient for extremists to return to the region via Turkey. Second, most of the Muslims in the region are Sunnis,of which a small proportion are adherents of Wahhabi, making beliefs in the region similar to those of the Islamic State. Third, problems including social injustice, disparity between the rich and the poor, corruption, high unemployment prevail in regional countries, also similar to some Middle Eastern countries haunted by Islamic extremists. Fourth, countries in the region are relatively young, plagued by tribal contradictions and local conflicts. Many loopholes exist as they are undergoing transition from old to new models, making it easy for extremists to exert influence. Fifth, with the withdrawal of the US and NATO troops, there is a possibility that Afghanistan will become a hotbed of Islamic extremist forces again. Sixth, despite a brief Islam revival in the region in the early period of independence, the religion has been under strict supervision ever since. There is a huge risk of its resurgence at any time.

The chaos in the Middle East, in recent years, has only increased the influence of Iran, instead of reducing it, and its rise is a continuing trend. The two wars that the United States launched in Afghanistan and Iraq in fact improved the external environment for Iran. Especially with Shiites gaining power in Iraq, a Shiite crescent in the Middle East, covering Iraq, Syria and the Lebanese Hezbollah with Iran at the center, is taking shape. In addition, with turmoil and regime change in a number of Arab countries triggered by the Arab Spring, Iran’s status in the Middle East has become more prominent. The signing of the nuclear deal has created a more favorable external environment for Iran. Currently, Iran is playing an important role in hotspot issues in the Middle East, including Syria, Iraq, Yemen and the fight against the Islamic State. It is in this context that Iran has become more ambitious and joined the competition for influence in Central Asia and Transcaucasia. It aims to make the region a strong basis for consolidating its position and further enhancing its competitiveness as a

The chaos in the Middle East in recent years has only increased the influence of Iran, instead of reducing it, and its rise is a continuing trend.major power in the Middle East.

Despite favorable conditions and increasing influence in the Middle East, Iran still faces many serious challenges and is far from getting rid of danger and isolation. The United States remains highly skeptical of Iran even after the nuclear agreement was reached and keeps it on the alert. The extension of Iran Sanctions Act by the US Congress, and the attitude of the newly elected US President Donald Trump towards the agreement has once again clouded US-Iran relations.26После инаугурации Трампа возможны сюрпризы со стороны США и Ирана. // Sрutnik. 26 Ноября 2016, httр://ru.sрutnik.аz/ехреrt/20161126/40785993/роslе-inаuqurаsii-trаmра-vоzmоjni-surрrizisо-stоrоni-sshа.html.There is still a strong anti-Iran sentiment in the United States, which means that the US will not stand by and watch Iran’s power grow in the Middle East. As with the relations with Saudi Arabia, after the execution of Nimr Baqir al-Nimr, a famous Shia Sheikh in Saudi Arabia led to rapid worsening of relations between the two countries, their confrontation has intensified in the Middle East and the sectarian, ethnic and geopolitical conflicts between them have escalated. In addition, Iran still sees Israel as an incompatible rival, and its structural estrangement with Turkey remains. These multiple risks in the Middle East have forced Iran to pay more attention to the adjoining Central Asia and Transcaucasia with an aim of building a reliable strategic rear area.

For Turkey, since the rise of the Islamic State, its geopolitical environment has significantly deteriorated. On the regional level, Turkey’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood has provoked criticism from Saudi Arabia and Egypt; its supply of weapons to Syrian opposition forces has offended Iran, Iraq and the Bashar al-Assad regime where Shiites are in power, and its endorsement of Hamas has infuriated Israel. On the international level, Turkey remains passive to the US-led international antiterrorism coalition against ISIS, and once even refused to open an air force

Since the rise of the Islamic State, Turkey’s geopolitical environment has significantly deteriorated.base to US and NATO military forces.27Отношения у Эрдогана с американцами даже хуже, чем отношения РФ и США. // Sрutnik. 5 Октября 2016, httр://ru.sрutnik.аz/соl(xiāng)umnists/20161005/407260407/jеrdоgаn-рutin-оbаmа-рrimirеniеsirijа.html.A large number of refugees from the Middle East have also flocked to Europe through Turkey, triggering accusations by the EU member states of its ineffective management.28Мигранты - это социальный взрыв у границ Европы и Турции. // Sрutnik. 6 Июня 2016, httр:// ru.sрutnik.аz/ехреrt/20160606/405524208.html.Turkey’s current government has taken advantage of the failed coup to crack down on domestic opposition forces, which has also led to fierce criticism from the US and the EU. With Russia, the bilateral relations also once experienced a sharp deterioration at the end of 2015 when a Russian fighter jet was shot down by Turkey. Turkey’s diplomacy in the Middle East is faced with predicament and isolation. Heading to Central Asia and Transcaucasia is obviously a move by Turkey to get rid of the passive situation in the Middle East and to expand its international space.

Intense competition among external powers

With the increasing presence of some external powers in Central Asia and Transcaucasia in recent years, Iran and Turkey, both of which are closely linked with the region in terms of history, culture, language, race and geography, have a rising of sense of crisis and urgency. In 2014, the European Union signed an Association Agreement with Georgia and started deepening its integration with the country, signaling that the United States and the European Union have taken a substantial step to Westernize Central Asia and Transcaucasia. In 2015, the leaders of the US, Japan, and India made unprecedented visits to Central Asia one after another in an effort to promote a comprehensive upgrade of their relations with countries in the region. The US launched the “C5+1” (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, plus the US) foreign ministers’dialogue mechanism. Japan is actively implementing its Arc of Freedom and Prosperity diplomatic strategy. And India is vigorously promoting its Connect Central Asia policy. At the same time, China proposed its SilkRoad Economic Belt strategy in 2013. The Eurasian Economic Union led by Russia officially started in 2015. The EU has revised its “New Strategy towards Central Asia.” And at the Ufa Summit in 2015, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) commenced procedures to accept India and Pakistan as members. External powers keep making moves in the region and that will inevitably have impacts on Iran and Turkey.

The presence of external powers in Central Asia and Transcaucasia presents both challenges and opportunities for Iran and Turkey. China’s proposal of building a China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor within the framework of Silk Road Economic Belt coincides with the regional strategy of Iran and Turkey. India in its International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) initiative under its Connect Central Asia policy takes Iran as a necessary place and important link, which greatly encourages Iran. The fact that the West has a cold relationship with Azerbaijan due to disputes on democracy and human rights issues, and that Armenia considers embracing Russia out of national security concerns have presented good opportunities for Iran to improve its relations with these two countries.

The presence of external powers in Central Asia and Transcaucasia presents both challenges and opportunities for Iran and Turkey.

Overall economic downturn in the region

In recent years, due to sluggish global economy, the sharp drop in prices of some international bulk raw commodities such as energy, and the overall decline of Russia’s economy, Central Asia and Transcaucasia has witnessed severe downward economic pressures. Countries in the region have seen their GDP growth rates slow, a sharp decline in foreign trade and turbulence in their financial markets. Energy-producing countries, such as Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, which had long been leading the regional economic growth, have experienced the worst economic declines. Azerbaijan’s GDP grew by 2.8% year-on-year in 2014, dropped to 1.1%in 2015 and registered negative growth in 2016 for the first time, down 3.9% year-on-year from January to September. Kazakhstan’s GDP growth was 4.4% in 2014, 1.2% in 2015 and 0.1% in the first half of 2016. Turkmenistan’s GDP growth was 8.1% in 2014, 8.0% in 2015 and 6.2% from January to August 2016, with the double-digit growth rate since 2000 declining to single digit.29Wаng Наiуаn, “Есоnоmiс Situаtiоn аnd Тrеnds оf Сеntrаl Аsiаn Соuntriеs,” in Sun Li аnd Wu Ноngwеi, Аnnuаl Rероrt оn Dеvеlорmеnt оf Сеntrаl Аsiа (2016), Sосiаl Sсiеnсеs Асаdеmiс Рrеss, 2016, рр.63-95.To cope with the situation and maintain social and social stability, many countries have introduced emergency measures to minimize the negative impacts of economic downturn. In this context, all the countries in the region hope to strengthen international cooperation as a way to escape their economic difficulties and introduce external funds and technology. This has presented a precious opportunity for Iran and Turkey, and coincides with the strategies of the two countries that take pragmatic cooperation as the priority.30Li Yаnzhi аnd Сhаng Shоufеng, “Тurkish АKР Gоvеrnmеnt’s Роl(xiāng)iсу аnd Рrасtiсе in thе Sоuth Саuсаsus аnd its Rеstrаining Fасtоrs,” Мiddlе Еаst Studiеs, Issuе 1, 2016, рр.111-129; Jin Liаngхiаng, “Rеlаtiоns bеtwееn Irаn аnd thе Grеаtеr Сеntrаl Аsiа in thе Роst-Аgrееmеnt Еrа,” Sосiаl Sсiеnсеs in Xinjiаng, Issuе 4, 2016, рр.79-84.At the same time, the Islamic extremist forces in the Middle East, represented by the Islamic State, generally take the widespread economic difficulties in Central Asia and Transcaucasia as too good an opportunity to be missed.

Prospects for Middle East Influence in Central Asia and Transcaucasia

The Middle East has always been an important factor that influences the situation in Central Asia and Transcaucasia. Historically, the Persian, Arab, Ottoman and other empires entered the region and each exerted far-reaching influences. Ancient Zoroastrianism and Manichean were introduced from Persia to Central Asia, and Islam began to replace many local religions after it was introduced from the Arabian Peninsula in the 7th century, becoming the dominant religion in the region. Although theSoviet Union temporarily interrupted the contacts and exchanges between the region and the Middle East, the two sides quickly resumed their ties after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and welcomed a new high in bilateral cooperation. Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries entered the region playing their respective advantages, trying to fill the power vacuum that was left and make the regional pattern develop in their favor. To that end, they made huge investment, intensively interfered in terms of politics, economy and culture, and participated heavily in regional affairs. By the beginning of the 21st century, after experiences in dealing with regional countries and major countries including China, Russia and the United States, the Middle East powers tended to adopt a more reasonable and sensible policy towards Central Asia and Transcaucasia, playing roles that match their strengths. The bilateral relations has gradually turned to favor pragmatic cooperation based on equality. In recent years, Iran and Turkey have both intensified their presence in the region, which is a geopolitical move highlighting pragmatic cooperation and weaker ideological factors. In the future, various forces of the Middle East will spare no efforts to further strengthen their diplomacy in the region, thus affecting the evolution and pattern of regional situation. On the whole, however, these various forces go separately from each other, and have their own respective disadvantages. It is hard for them to play a decisive role in the region.

The Middle East has always been an important factor that influences the situation in Central Asia and Transcaucasia.

Islamic extremists in the Middle East not getting anywhere

The Islamic extremist forces, with the Middle East as their place of origin and base camp, take expanding their influence into Central Asia and Transcaucasia as one of their stated objectives. Since the independence of regional countries, Middle East Islamic extremists have never ceased to penetrate into the region, from the rapid development of Wahhabi tothe rampant forces of Hizb ut-Tahrir, from a series of explosions targeted directly at Uzbekistan President Islam Karimov in Tashkent in 1999, to the world-shocking Andijan incident in 2005.31Dеng Нао, “Тurn in Сеntrаl-Аsiаn Situаtiоn аftеr Drаstiс Сhаngе in Kуrgуzstаn,” Jоurnаl оf Xinjiаng Nоrmаl Univеrsitу (Sосiаl Sсiеnсеs), Issuе 1, 2011, рр.30-36.While they have kept a low profile due to crackdown by regional governments in recent years, they have been building up strength and waiting for opportunities.32История Халимова: как таджикский омоновец стал военачальником ИГ. // Sрutnik. 6 Сентября 2016, httр://ru.sрutnik.kg/аnаlуtiсs/20160906/1029031003.html.The terrorist attacks in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in 2016 signal that those extremist forces, represented by the Islamic State, have become active once more in Central Asia and Transcaucasia. At present, the region faces grave internal and external challenges. Internally, implicated by the stagnant Russian economy and continuous global economic downturn, regional economic growth is sluggish, causing increased unemployment, poverty and social instability and posing a huge threat to regional stability. Regionally, disputes among some countries remain over territory, demarcation, water resources, energy and transportation. The complicated relations lead to conflicts from time to time. In particular, the struggle between Azerbaijan and Armenia concerning the sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh has cast a shadow over regional security. Externally, the combination of a new Cold War involving Russia and the West and the turbulence of neighboring countries such as Afghanistan, Syria and Ukraine means the security situation in Central Asia and Transcaucasia is anything but promising. All these factors contribute to a possible penetration by Islamic extremist forces from the Middle East. Instead of being weakened or eliminated, these forces are bound to strengthen and expand their activities in the region.

However, Central Asia and Transcaucasia is not the Middle East, and it is not so easy for Islamic extremist forces of the Middle East to duplicate the model of the Islamic State in the region. First, it is hard for them to win the support of the majority of Muslims in the region. Atheism education received in the 1970s of the Soviet era, the development pathof a secular society after their independence, and the evils the Middle East Islamic extremist forces have done around the world, have all made the majority of local Muslims opposed to the so-called caliph. Second, authorities in the region have clearly opposed Islamic extremism in any form, and taken a package of measures in terms of politics, law, security and economy to resolutely crack it down, which has helped form a strong deterrent to penetration. Third, the penetration will also threaten the security of China and Russia, who will not stand by and do nothing. Both the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization of the CIS led by Russia are effective mechanisms to fight against the Islamic extremism. Fourth, Iran, as a Shiite Islamic power, serves as a constraint preventing the Middle East Sunni Islamic extremists from infiltrating the region.

Iran not yet a major regional player

Iran is a Shiite Islamic fundamentalist power. The nuclear agreement and the lifting of international sanctions have provided a great impetus for Iran to restore and strengthen relations with countries in Central Asia and Transcaucasia. Iran’s influence and status in the region are expected to markedly improve. To start with, the nuclear agreement helps pave the way for Iran to officially join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,33“SСО Соnsidеring Irаn Меmbеrshiр: Irаniаn Ехреrt,” Sрutnik Nеws, Nоvеmbеr 25, 2016, httр:// sрutniknеws.сn/роl(xiāng)itiсs/201611251021252871; “Моsсоw Firmlу Suрроrts Irаn Аdmissiоn tо SСО,” Sрutnik Nеws, Nоvеmbеr 15, 2016, httр://sрutniknеws.сn/роl(xiāng)itiсs/201611151021169648.which will make it possible to be included in regional integration efforts and thus greatly increase its significance in regional landscape. At the same time, Iran is also actively building relations with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, and is likely to sign an FTA agreement,34“Irаn Нореs tо Sign Соореrаtiоn Аgrееmеnt with ЕЕU in 2017: Irаniаn Аmbаssаdоr,” Sрutnik Nеws, Dесеmbеr 16, 2016, httр://sрutniknеws.сn/роl(xiāng)itiсs/201612161021418286.which will also help it engage deeply in regional cooperation process. In addition, in the context of the lifting of international sanctions, the regional mechanisms led by Iran, which were slow or even stagnant, could be re-activated,including the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), which was co-initiated by Iran, Turkey and Pakistan and joined by five Central Asian countries, Azerbaijan and Afghanistan, as well as the Caspian Economic Cooperation Conference, which was initiated by Iran in 2007 and includes Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and other countries along the Caspian Sea. Second, with its unique geographical advantages, Iran plays an important role in the external reach of Central Asia and Transcaucasia. With the abolition of sanctions, Iran is expected to absorb more foreign capital into its infrastructure construction, so as to lay a solid foundation for interconnectivity within the region and attract more countries to export via Iran. Now, several international transport corridors via Iran are being planned or underway, which signals that Iran will play a more important role in the economic cooperation of Central Asia and Transcaucasia.

Iran may make some regional breakthroughs in Central Asia and Transcaucasia, but it will be difficult for Iran to radically change the existing regional landscape. Iran will not become a major player in the region. The lifting of international sanctions does not mean the international community will allow Iran to export its Islamic fundamentalism as it likes. Iran is still being closely watched by the United States, and various countries in the region will remain a high degree of vigilance over it. Moreover, as most Muslims in Central Asia and Transcaucasia are Sunnis, it will be hard for the Shiite fundamentalism of Iran to be accepted by regional Sunni countries, let alone the fact that some Sunni Islamic powers such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia tend to drive a wedge between them. Iran’s advantage lies mainly in energy, but it only adds to competition for some energyrich countries in the region, who are not willing to share the cake with Iran. Having suffered disadvantages brought by sanctions for many years, Iran is faced with many problems. What is more, given that its economic

Iran may make some regional breakthroughs in Central Asia and Transcaucasia, but it will be difficult for Iran to radically change the existing regional landscape.complementarity with regional countries remains low, Iran will find it hard to achieve a substantially stronger regional influence just by economic cooperation.

Turkey faced with multiple limitations

Turkey is a Turkic Islamic power. After the ups and downs in its relations with Russia, Turkey is readjusting itself to promote its strategy for Central Asia and Transcaucasia. Thanks to years of efforts, it has an increasingly large role and influence in the region. In 2009, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan co-founded the Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States, which signals the institutionalization of their cooperation and serves as a platform for Turkey to take part in regional affairs. Turkey has also established regular trilateral meeting mechanisms with Azerbaijan and Georgia, and with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Turkey is currently the first or second-largest trading partner of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkmenistan. The two newly-built major cross-border oil and gas pipelines in the region, namely the Baku—Tbilisi—Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) pipeline, pass through Turkish soil, which manifests Turkey’s important position in the exports of regional energy.

Turkey attaches great importance to its soft power in Central Asia and Transcaucasia, especially of higher education influence. Turkey has so far established national universities in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and provides a substantial amount of scholarship for local students each year. It has also opened institutions such as secondary schools and language centers in Central Asia to spread Turkish language and culture.

In the future, Turkey will continue to steadily push forward relations with regional countries on the existing basis, and its role in the region is expected to further improve. First, Turkey has pragmatically adjusted its initial regional policies that were heavily pan-Turkism, and instead stressed the importance of equal and mutually-beneficial economic cooperation, which helps dispel the doubts and concerns of regional countries, andreduce the resistance from external forces. It also meets the practical demands and priorities of regional countries to develop their economies, and thus has been widely welcomed. In this context, Turkey’s relations with regional countries, especially with Turkic-speaking countries, will develop in leaps and bounds, and cooperation in regional and international affairs between the two sides will be improved. Second, Turkey has advantages in its geographical location since it not only bridges the commercial land route, but also hosts the major maritime passage across the Eurasian continent, which is a real temptation to most land-locked Central Asia and Transcaucasian countries. Turkey is actively promoting the orientation of regional countries toward itself as their foreign trade, transport and energy corridor, and also deepening or expanding bilateral economic cooperation. Thanks to its geographical advantages and favorable platforms like the Turkic Council, Turkey will play a greater role in regional economy in the future. Third, the expansion of soft power in Central Asia and Transcaucasia is another feature and advantage. Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan jointly issued primary and secondary school history textbooks on Turkic history in 2015, and are planning to publish textbooks on Turkic geography and Turkic literature. They have also proposed running a Turkiclanguage television station. The integration of the Turkic world, driven by Turkey, is being implemented in the field of culture and education. In the future, Turkey will continue to expand its soft power in the region by way of the Turkic Council and other channels.

Turkey is undoubtedly an indispensable player in Central Asia and Transcaucasia both in terms of reality and prospects. However, it cannot become a dominant player due to many limitations. First, Russia remains the biggest obstacle and resistance to Turkey’s expansion in the region. The restoration of Turkey-Russia relations does not mean the two countries will stop competing against each other in Central Asia and Transcaucasia. Their struggle will only become less visible. Competition between the two is inevitable since they have structural conflicts in the region. Russia has a number of mostly-Turkic administrative units in the Volga basin, Ural,

Caucasus and Siberia. Tatars in Crimea and the Volga basin are historically the initiators of pan-Turkism. Turkey’s expansion into Central Asia and Transcaucasia, especially into Turkic countries in the region, poses a direct challenge to Russia’s domestic stability and the regional integration it leads with the Eurasian Economic Union as a platform. Once its geopolitical interests are at stake, Russia will not sit by. Regional countries have to take into consideration Russia’s feelings and possible reactions when they develop their own relations with Turkey. Second, Iran has been implicitly competing with Turkey, and the two have multiple structural disputes with regard to geography, ethnicity, religion, political system, and border demarcation.35Wаng Во, “Аnаlуsis оn thе Fасtоrs Еvоl(xiāng)ving with thе Rесеnt Rесоnсiliаtiоn bеtwееn Тurkеу аnd Irаn,” Аrаb Wоrld Studiеs, Issuе 3, 2011, рр.3-5; В Москве встретятся главы МИД Турции, России и Ирана. // Sрutnik. 6 Сентября 2016, httр://ru.sрutnik.аz/russiа/20161215/408102233/vstrесhа-mid-turсiirоssii-irаnа.html.All these imply the inevitability of competition, even conflicts, between the two in the region. Iran has always been a major obstacle for Turkey in Central Asia and Transcaucasia. In addition, some regional countries, especially the Turkic-speaking countries, remain wary of Turkey’s ambition to become dominant among the Turkic-speaking countries. Turkey’s regime, led by the Justice and Development Party (AKP), has shown some signs of pro-Islamization, which also sounds an alert for regional countries. Lastly, with its limited strength, Turkey will find it hard to compete with global powers such as Russia and the United States. Today, Turkey is deeply evolved in the Syrian crisis, and is being dragged down by the influx of refugees. It is also a continuous target for terrorist attacks by extremist forces. In all, its presence and advance in Central Asia and Transcaucasia seems more an ambition rather than a reality.

Conclusion

The relationship of the Middle East and Central Asia and Transcaucasia is epitome of connections between the Islamic world and the region.Since the independence of regional countries, Islam has always been an important factor in regional political landscape. From the strengthened politicization of Islam at the beginning of independence to the violent challenge of Islamic extremist forces to secular regimes, from the Afghan Taliban’s threat to regional stability to the Islamic State’s expansion and penetration into the region, Islamic extremist forces have never ceased their disruption of political stability in Central Asia and Transcaucasia, and their threat keeps growing. At the same time, the Middle East countries, represented by Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have advanced into the region after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, making relations with the Islamic world unprecedentedly important, accelerating the spread of long-hidden pan-Islamic and pan-Turkism doctrines in the region, and posing a serious threat to the secular political system of all regional countries. The Islamic world represented by the Middle East has a realistic and far-reaching impact on the direction Central Asia and Transcaucasia will take. It is a grave challenge for regional countries to deal with the Islamic world, to avoid being influenced by pan-Islamism and pan-Turkism in their dealings with Middle East countries, and to prevent the intrusion of international Islamic radical forces, as the security and stability of the whole region is at stake.

It should be noted, however, that the Islamic world is not a monolithic bloc. There are many differences and much infighting, and therefore breaking the stability of Central Asia and Transcaucasia would be difficult. The relationship among Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey is complicated. With their different calculations, the three nations take their own ways instead of joint actions. Moreover, all of them have to act with prudence given their different relations with Russia and the United States, who, for the sake of their own interests, will not sit by and allow Islamic forces to dominate the region. Historically, Central Asia and Transcaucasia has always been a gathering place for various civilizations. It will not either be ruled by any single one of them.

Deng Hao is а Sеniоr Rеsеаrсh Fеllоw аt thе Dераrtmеnt fоr Dеvеlорing Соuntriеs Studiеs, Сhinа Institutе оf Intеrnаtiоnаl Studiеs (СIIS).