公交主導(dǎo)型多方式交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)的協(xié)同機(jī)理與耦合理論2013年度報(bào)告

王煒

摘要：本研究緊密結(jié)合我國(guó)城市交通結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和公交優(yōu)先國(guó)家目標(biāo)需求，立足于公交主導(dǎo)型交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)條件下居民出行特征與多方式網(wǎng)絡(luò)承載力特性的深入研究，揭示地面公交網(wǎng)絡(luò)-軌道網(wǎng)絡(luò)-道路網(wǎng)絡(luò)的相互作用機(jī)理，建立交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)多方式系統(tǒng)耦合理論，并將理論研究成果應(yīng)用于多方式交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)效能評(píng)估。項(xiàng)目研究總體上從公交主導(dǎo)型多方式交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)出行需求與供給特性分析、公交主導(dǎo)型多層次交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)相互作用與系統(tǒng)耦合、多方式交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)效能評(píng)估這三個(gè)緊密相關(guān)、依次遞進(jìn)方面上開展理論與應(yīng)用研究。首先，基于對(duì)公交主導(dǎo)型交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)條件下居民出行行為特征與出行需求的合理認(rèn)知、把握與診斷，本年度開展大量調(diào)查，獲取并分析公交主導(dǎo)型交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)條件下居民出行特征基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)，實(shí)現(xiàn)公交主導(dǎo)型多方式交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)下基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)的采集及數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)的建立，構(gòu)建公交出行行為辨識(shí)模型、基于滿意度的公交服務(wù)貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型以及以大運(yùn)量公交為主的多方式聯(lián)合出行整體效用模型，解析公交主導(dǎo)型多方式網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的多重復(fù)雜出行需求；其次，從多方式交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)的地面公交運(yùn)行特性與通行能力出發(fā)，研究多層次交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)客流影響，探討地面公交與軌道運(yùn)輸能力一體化的銜接方法，構(gòu)建宏觀客流在多層次交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)上的轉(zhuǎn)移模型；再次，在宏觀層面上對(duì)居民出行分布與公交主導(dǎo)型網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)的耦合關(guān)系進(jìn)行了分析，形成基于結(jié)構(gòu)耦合模型的公交網(wǎng)絡(luò)等級(jí)配置、公交網(wǎng)絡(luò)布局以及軌道交通與地面交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)換乘設(shè)施的優(yōu)化方法，深入分析公交主導(dǎo)型多層次交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)系統(tǒng)耦合作用機(jī)制；最后，在明確了軌道網(wǎng)絡(luò)與地面交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)的耦合內(nèi)涵基礎(chǔ)上，綜合宏觀網(wǎng)絡(luò)層面與微觀通行層面，建立了包含出行效率、公交承載力、排放與能耗、建設(shè)費(fèi)用在內(nèi)的差異化指標(biāo)評(píng)價(jià)體系，并采用實(shí)地調(diào)查獲取的道路及交通流參數(shù)建立多方式交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)效能分析實(shí)證平臺(tái)，提出了基于公交及社會(huì)車輛通行效率評(píng)價(jià)的優(yōu)先策略反饋機(jī)制和基于MATLAB的污染物濃度分布可視化展現(xiàn)。為成果在交通結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化和節(jié)能減排方面的推廣應(yīng)用提供扎實(shí)的基礎(chǔ)和可靠的依據(jù)。

關(guān)鍵詞：公交主導(dǎo)；多方式交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)；耦合理論

Interaction Mechanism and Coupling Theory of Transit-oriented Multimodal Urban Traffic Systems

Abstract：Based on the capacity and activity-travel behavior study of transit-oriented traffic network， this project has revealed the interactions among bus network， metro network and road network， and has established the coupling theory among those multimodal networks. In general， those studies can be divided into three levels： transit-oriented multimodal demand and supply， multi-typed interactions between different networks and efficiency evaluation of those networks. Firstly， investigations were conducted based on understandings of activity-travel behavior under transit-oriented traffic network and related database was established. Models like identification model for bus travel behavior， Bayesian network model for bus service level and multimodal utility model were built based on those data to provide comprehensive understanding of multiple and complex travel demand； then， impacts of multimodal networks on traffic flow were studies based on the understanding of operating characteristics and capacity of urban ground transit network. A methodology towards more integrated ground and underground transit and traffic flow transfer models between those networks were established. Furthermore， a deep study on coupling theories between trip distribution and transit-oriented networks as well as coupling theory among different transit network， help to form the utilized mechanisms for level configuration， network layout and ground transportation network transfer facility towards multimodal transit network. Base on that， finally， a differentiated evaluation index system for both macro and micro-level of transit-oriented networks was established， including varies of factors like travel efficiency， public transportation capacity， emissions and energy consumption and construction costs， et al. and a multimodal transportation network performance analysis empirical platform was established， providing bus priority strategy based on vehicle traffic and social efficiency evaluation and feedback mechanism based on the visualized distribution of pollutant concentration based on MATLAB. Those findings can be used as basis to utilize transportation structures as well as saving energy.

Keywords：Transit-oriented；multimodal transportation network；coupling theory

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