Japan-Russia Rapprochement:Will It Last Long?

Yan Dexue amp; Sun Chao

Japan-Russia Rapprochement:Will It Last Long?

Yan Dexue amp; Sun Chao

Since the end of the Cold War both Russia and Japan have been attempting to build a new framework for their bilateral relations.As a result of the Ukraine crisis in 2014, Russia has shown greater interest in pivoting to the East, looking for partners in Northeast Asia. This has coincided with the Abe administration seeking to construct a strategic cooperative partnership with Russia in order to contain the rise of China.The changes in the relations between the two major powers will have profound influences on the security structure of Northeast Asia and the trends of regional hotspot issues.

Latest Developments in Japan-Russia Relations

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has to a certain extent inherited from his predecessors the strategy of seeking a rapprochement with Russia. Abe has frequently arranged meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin in hope of securing a political consensus. As a result, the two Abe administrations had conducted 18 meetings with Russia by April 2017. Putin also recognized this effort by saying that frequent dialogues with Japan have helped solve long existing problems and promoted the two countries' bilateral relations.1Thereemerge some distinctive features of Japan-Russia relations as the increasingly frequent meetings are bringing the two countries closer.

Consensus reached on signing a peace treaty

The Abe administration has made considerable efforts since 2012 to ease the tensions that have existed between Japan and Russia. This includes not only promoting official talks between the two countries, but also going beyond their territorial dispute. In the wake of the Ukraine crisis, the Japanese government has beefed up its engagement with Russia, which is struck by economic sanctions from the West.2John Drennan, quot;Russia-Japan Relations after Ukraine,quot; IISS Voices, July 10, 2015, http://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voices/blogsections/iiss-voices-2015-dda3/july-2632/russia-japan-relations-after-ukraine-f799.In order to align with Russia's key interests, the Abe administration even abandoned the tradition that political relations should be consistent with economic ties. It has thus become possible for the two sides to sign a peace treaty before settling their territorial dispute over the islands known as the Northern Territories in Japan or the Southern Kuril Islands in Russia. The Abe administration hopes that the full development of Japan's relations with Russia can appease the Japanese public and enhance mutual trust between the two countries. The trust cultivated between Abe and Putin is expected to generate leaders' decisions helpful to settling the two countries'territorial dispute. This plan has been derived from the historical attempts by the administrations of Ryutaro Hashimoto and Yoshiro Mori, which unfortunately failed to resolve the dispute due to missed opportunities.3The first attempt was during Boris Yeltsin's term when the two countries enjoyed a friendly atmosphere after two negotiations. Japan proposed temporarily admitting Russia's administrative power over the Northern Islands, and drawing the territorial boundary to the north of the Iturup Island. But Russia refused. The second attempt was after Putin became president. Japan acknowledged the Soviet-Japanese Joint Declaration of 1956 and proposed that Russia return Shikotan and Habomai before the two countries negotiate plans for Kunashir and Iturup. This proposal was opposed by the Japanese public and Mori was forced to resign.Now Abe has again picked up this strategy, in the hope that his good personal relationship with Putin can be the ice-breaker in the territorial dispute.

Nevertheless, Russia will not make any concessions in the territorial dispute and will never admit the islands are Japanese territory. In October 2016, the spokesperson for Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova reaffirmed that the Kuril Islands are Russia's inherent territory, and this must be the premise for Russia signing a peace agreement with Japan.4quot;Kuril Islands Are Russia's Inherent Territories: Russian Foreign Ministry,quot; Xinhua, October 5, 2016,http://news.xinhuanet.com/ world/2016-10/05/c_1119666290.htm.Despite this, Russia has decided not to bind the development of its relations with Japan to the territorial issue. To encourage more achievements before Putin's visit to Japan at the end of 2016, a meeting was arranged beforehand between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida. After the meeting, both foreign ministers confirmed that the two sides shared the political will to find a solution to the territorial dispute that could satisfy the interests and the societies of both countries.Although Russia believes that there is still much ambiguity that needs further negotiations so the Soviet-Japanese Joint Declaration of 1956 can be implemented in every detail, the procedure coded in the Declaration is still recognized, that is signing a peace treaty and putting it in force must be the first step before any other possible settlement.5quot;Russia and Japan Have Consensus over Peace Treaty: Russian Foreign Minister,quot; Sputnik News,December 3, 2016, http://sputniknews.cn/russia/201612031021316152.In other words,a Russia-Japan peace treaty will have to come prior to a settlement of the territorial dispute. In December 2016, Putin revisited Japan after 11 years and asserted the importance of reaching a peace treaty as a premise for longterm interactions between the two countries.6quot;Second Day of Putin's Japan Visit: Meeting in Tokyo,quot; Sputnik News, December 16, 2016, http://sputniknews.cn/russia/201612161021412912.Given the positive bilateral interactions, there seems to be a consensus on reaching a peace treaty.

Breakthrough in economic cooperation

Suffering from a simple economic structure, a deep dependence on oil and gas exports, and struck by economic sanctions imposed by Western countries and recent downturn of global economy, Russia is currently in the middle of the longest period of depression since 1999 with its economy and national power continuously in decline. On top of that, the Ukraine crisis has blocked Russia's economic relations with and its foreign investment from Eurasian countries.7Alexander Libman, quot;The Ukraine Crisis, Russian Economic Crisis and the Eurasian Economic Union,quot;Russian Studies, No.3, 2015, p.43.In Putin's 2016 State of the Nation address, he elaborated on the national priority for domestic development. According to a Japanese think tank, the Russian economy, which reached its lowest point in 2016, will start to recover from 2017.8Yugo Konno, quot;Russian Economy Bottoms Out,quot; Mizuho Global News, July/August 2017, https://www.mizuhobank.co.jp/corporate/world/info/globalnews/pdf/global1707-08_03.pdf.In fact, the Abe administration realized from the start, and acted on the realization, that economic developments are key to the recovery of Russia's national power. As a result,Japan actively promoted economic cooperation with Russia. In April 2013,Abe visited Russia for the first time after 10 years, together with more than 120 senior executives from different industries, including more than 30 CEOs. This visit was the largest, highest-level visit ever in Japanese-Russian diplomatic history, achieving 15 commercial agreements signed among 18 agreements in total with Russia.9quot;Japan-Russia Summit Meeting,quot; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, April 29, 2013, http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/kaidan/page4_000064.html.Abe then visited Russia twice in 2016,first in May and then in September, proposing cooperation plans in eight fields and relevant projects in the economic field. The eight fields include exploitation of oil and gas, industrial revitalization (construction of ports and airports and development of farmlands, etc.) in Russia's far eastern region,urban infrastructure construction to address traffic congestion and improve drainage systems, and building high-level hospitals. The plans, highly praised by President Putin, were worth more than a trillion yen and aimed at stimulating the Russian economy and raising people's living standards.10quot;Japan-Russia Summit Meeting,quot; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, May 7, 2016, http://www.mofa.go.jp/erp/rss/northern/page4e_000427.html.

However, some Japanese companies remain cautious about investing in the Russian economy, because the sanctions from Western countries have caused Russia to strengthen relations with China.11JETRO, quot;Survey of Business Confidence among Japanese Companies in Russia (February 2017),quot;March 10, 2017, https://www5.jetro.go.jp/newsletter/rsm/2017/201702kekka.pdf.With the purpose of consolidating Japan's influence over the Russian economy, the Abe administration appointed Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Hiroshige Seko to also be Minister for Economic Cooperation with Russia. He negotiated with Russia about cooperation in the eight fields in November 2016 and reached consensus on about 30 specific projects. At the end of 2016, Japan and Russia decided to establish a common fund of 100 billion yen to encourage Japanese enterprises to enter Russia's far eastern region. When Putin visited Japan, the two countries exchanged agreement documents on over 60 projects; private projects included, Japan by then had offered more than 300 billion yen in economic cooperation.12quot;President of Russia Visits Japan,quot; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, December 16, 2016, http://www.mofa.go.jp/erp/rss/northern/page1e_000130.html.This demonstrates how the Abe administration has advanced an interest-oriented diplomacy in its approach to Russia, which satisfies Russia's economic and development needs and creates an environment conducive to a peace treaty.The breakthrough in economic cooperation is highly important for the Abe administration, not only because cooperation furthers the shared interests of the two countries, but also because their economic interactions construct a good foundation for a new framework to settle the territorial dispute.

Reopening the security dialogue mechanism

The Abe administration has tried to make new achievements in its diplomacy with Russia in a bid to deflect the strategic pressure from a rising China. In 2013, when Abe visited Russia, the two countries established thequot;2+2quot; meeting mechanism between their respective foreign and defense ministers, and the first quot;2+2quot; meeting was held in Tokyo. This means Russia,following the United States in 1960 and Australia in 2007, has become the third country to establish such a mechanism with Japan. In this way, Japan wants to show that a special relationship exists between Russia and Japan and thus improve relations with Russia. Nevertheless, real military cooperation between the two countries still faces challenges and problems.

The Ukraine crisis has caused Japan's great concern. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, for instance, argued that Russia's annexation of Crimea offends Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and Japan cannot agree with Russia changing the status quo by violence.13quot;Yoshihide Suga on Ukraine Crisis: Changing the Status Quo by Violence Cannot be Recognized,quot;Huanqiu News, March 17, 2015, http://world.huanqiu.com/exclusive/2015-03/5928521.html.The quot;2+2quot; meeting mechanism was abandoned for three years due to the Ukraine crisis until the Tokyo meeting in March 2017, which was made possible after both leaders agreed to restart the mechanism when Putin visited Japan at the end of 2016.However, at the meeting, Japan protested Russia's deployment of missiles on the disputed islands while Russia also argued that Japan's deployment of the Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system is far beyond its actual need to defend itself from the North Korean threat. Japan also expressed the ambition of constrain China's maritime activities, while Russia expressed explicitly that it wanted to avoid hostile relations with China.14Yu Koizumi, quot;2nd Japan-Russia Defense and Foreign Ministers' Meeting (2+2): Divergent Expectations and Prospects,quot; March 22, 2017, https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/koizumiyu/20170322-00068996.Nevertheless, consensus was reached over the North Korean nuclear issue and on maintaining the quot;2+2quot;mechanism. While the Japan-Russia summit meeting in 2016 did not prioritize security issues, it is clear that Japan has acutely captured the strategic needs of Russia in Northeast Asia. Consensus in practical fields could promote further cooperation and therefore tie the two countries closer together.

Three Drivers for Japan-Russia Rapprochement

Japan's rapprochement with Russia is due to both countries' inherent demands for development as well as external geopolitical pressures. The two countries have sought consensus on common interests and accommodated the changes in the international environment.

Japan's strategic demands

Japan's strategic goals with regards to Russia are clearly stated in its National Security Strategy.15On December 17, 2013, the Japanese cabinet approved the National Security Strategy to replace the Basic Policy of National Defense adopted by the National Defense Council and the Cabinet on May 20,1957.quot;Under the increasingly severe security environment in East Asia, it is critical for Japan to advance cooperation with Russia in all areas,including security and energy, thereby enhancing bilateral relations as a whole, in order to ensure its security. Based on this recognition, Japan will cooperate with Russia in securing peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region. With regard to the issue of the Northern Territories, the most important pending issue between the two countries, Japan will vigorously negotiate with Russia under a consistent policy of resolving the issue of the attribution of the four islands and concluding a peace treaty.quot;16quot;National Security Strategy,quot; Japanese Cabinet Secretariat, December 17, 2013, pp.25-26, https://www.cas.go.jp/jp/siryou/131217anzenhoshou/nss-e.pdf.Since there is no institutionalized mechanism of security cooperation in Northeast Asia, regional countries have to help themselves or rely on the alliance system to ensure their security in the face of the increasingly complicated territorial and maritime disputes. The power structure in the region is prone to the security dilemma that provokes international crises.For example, Japan and China have multiple disputes over the East China Sea and the South China Sea,17Ibid, p.12.and Japan strongly feels that China is compressing its maritime lifeline. Consequently, Japan desires to strengthen its forces domestically and enhance international cooperation externally with the US-Japan alliance remaining a pivot, in order to integrate all possible resources and respond to the strategic pressure from China.

Japan's goal is to encourage Russia to be as neutral as possible in the short run, and in the long run solve the Northern Territories dispute when relations between Japan and Russia are amiable.

In order to constrain China, Abe's second administration has featured attempts to consolidate political relations with other countries and deepen their commercial exchanges.18Kurt Campbell, quot;Russia-Japan Diplomatic Interactions Worth Attention,quot; FT Chinese, February 20,2014, http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001054898.Abe has held meetings with Putin many times so as to construct a relationship of trust between the two leaders,and accordingly to make a breakthrough in Japan-Russia relations. Japan's strategic conjecture is that to ease the pressure from a rising China, Russia will seek security cooperation with Japan so as to rearrange the strategic landscape of Northeast Asia. As Japan sees it, it is the signal of a worried Russia that its Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev visited Japan to discuss security cooperation. According to information revealed by the Russian Federal Security Council through the Russian Agency of International Information, Patrushev and Shotaro Yachi, head of Japan's National Security Secretariat, met twice in Tokyo and Moscow to discuss ways to ease regional tensions and enhance bilateral cooperation.19Пaтpyшeв oбcyдил вoпpocы бeзoпacнocти c ceкpeтapeм Coвбeзa Япoнии. // Bзгляд. 9 Hoябpя 2016, https://www.vz.ru/news/2016/11/9/842842.html.Abe subsequently visited Russia to express Japan's desire for security cooperation,setting up the quot;2+2quot; meeting mechanism as Russia suggested and thus lifting Japan-Russia relations to a new level in the face of China's strategic pressure. Japan's goal is to encourage Russia to be as neutral as possible in the short run, and in the long run solve the Northern Territories dispute when relations between Japan and Russia are amiable.20Taisuke Abiru, quot;Strive to Build Strategic Relationship with Russia from a Medium to Long-Term Perspective,quot; Tokyo Foundation, December 8, 2016, http://s.tkfd.or.jp/2gd9fsQ.However, with the Ukraine crisis, Russia's relations with the United States and Europe quickly deteriorated. Japan, to conform to the G7 position, had to impose at least some soft economic sanctions on Russia, which resulted in Putin delaying his visit to Japan. The Ukraine crisis has ultimately put the partnership between Russia and China on the fast track and the power balance in Northeast Asia has ultimately changed, though not in the way the Abe administration hoped for.21Pavel K. Baev, quot;Russia's Pivot to China Goes Astray: the Impact on the Asia-Pacific Security Architecture,quot; Contemporary Security Policy, Vol.37, No.1, 2016, p.89.This has messed up the Abe administration's strategic plans of its approach to Russia.

Russia's deteriorating internal and external environment

The Ukraine crisis has worsened Russia's diplomatic isolation and economic difficulties, making it feel even more strongly that its national security is threatened. In the face of economic sanctions from the West and the security pressure imposed by NATO, Russia has been seeking more friends in Asia. Approaching each other is thus a bid by Japan and Russia to confront the security challenges in Northeast Asia, such as the North Korean nuclear threat, and maritime, environmental and energy security threats.22Aн?peǔ Moзжyxuн He Aбэ кaк: пoйдeт ли нa пoльзy Poccии cближeниe c Япoниeй. // Лeнтa. Py. 31 Mapтa 2016, https://lenta.ru/articles/2016/03/31/japan.Putin, when interviewed by Japanese media, mentioned that Russia seeks to normalize its relations with Japan and the historical mistake of not signing a peace treaty should be corrected.23Пyтин зaявил o жeлaнии нopмaлизoвaть oтнoшeния c Япoниeй. // BBC. 13 Дeкaбpя 2016, http://www.bbc.com/russian/news-38299765.This attitude could also be seen in public opinion in Russia as a survey in September 2016 found that 78 percent of the Russian people believed that Japanese-Russian relations were amicable, 5 percent greater than the figure in 2010, and 97 percent of the Russian people believed Russia's relationship with Japan is important. More than 80 percent of the respondents accepted that Japan has been a peaceful country since the end of the Second World War, and in general the Russian people believe that Japan is the second most reliable country following China. The survey also showed the top three fields in which the Russian people believed that Russia-Japan cooperation could be enhanced: science and technology (90 percent), trade and investment (79 percent), and diplomacy and security (74 percent).24Oпpoc: poccиянe cчитaют oтнoшeния c Япoниeй дpyжecтвeнным. // TACC. 1 Ceнтябpя 2016,http://tass.ru/obschestvo/3582202.It is obvious that regardless of the territorial dispute, the Russian people have a strong willingness for the country to improve its economic cooperation with Japan.

Russia is caught in a geopolitical dilemma and it needs to improve its relations with Japan as part of its international strategy of Looking East and as a way to balance its relations with China.

Approaching Japan has also helped Russia enrich its diplomacy in the Far East. Russia needs the technology and investment from Japan to stimulate its own economy, especially Japan's support for cutting-edge technologies.25Aннa Кopoлeвa Япoнcкиe инвecтиции пoтeкyт в Poccию. //Экcпepт Online. 2016, http://expert.ru/2016/ 12/16/investitsii.Unlike other Western countries, the geographical closeness and the Abe administration's active diplomacy have encouraged Russia to turn towards Japan. In particular, Russia desires Japan to increase investment in its energy industry and its far eastern region. Putin emphasized in his 2016 State of the Nation address that Russia welcomes Japan's willingness to enhance economic exchanges and engage in cooperative projects and Russia is willing to promote Japanese-Russian relations.26Vladimir Putin, quot;Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly,quot; Official Internet Resources of the President of Russia, December 1, 2016, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/ president/news/53379.In terms of security, Russia is caught in a geopolitical dilemma and it needs to improve its relations with Japan as part of its international strategy of Looking East and as a way to balance its relations with China.27quot;Japan and Russia Comes Closer with Different Agendas,quot; Cankao Xiaoxi, May 10, 2016, http://www.cankaoxiaoxi.com/world/20160510/1153875.shtml.The 2016 Russian Foreign Policy Concept states that Russia will continue its friendly neighborly relations with Japan and will ensure the stability and security of the Asia-Pacific region.28Mu? Poccuu Кoнцeпция внeшнeй пoлитики Poccийcкoй Фeдepaции (yтвepждeнa Пpeзидeнтoм Poccийcкoй Фeдepaции B. B. Пyтиным 30 Hoябpя 2016 г.), 1 Дeкaбpя 2016.Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also clearly expressed that the Russia-Japanquot;2+2quot; meeting mechanism has the depth and focus that is highly in line with the interests of both countries, and is taking Russia-Japan relations to a new level.29quot;Russian Foreign Minister: Russia-Japan 2+2 Mechanism Important for Maintaining Asia-Pacific Security,quot; Sputnik News, March 20, 2016, http://sputniknews.cn/politics/201703201022131951.

Changes in geopolitical structure of Northeast Asia

Relations between Japan and Russia are an important factor that influences the geopolitics of Northeast Asia and vice versa. Since the end of the Cold War and with the rise of China, the geopolitical structure of the US-Japan alliance aimed at constraining China has been further consolidated. Based on its strategic consideration for rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific, the United States has in recent years been actively fostering Japan. Under the US support, Japan has gained greater space to participate in regional and global affairs, and is more willing to take greater strategic responsibilities.30Yuan Weihua amp; Tian Guangqiang, quot;Power Transition, Strategic Dependence and Alliance Transition:The Case of the US-Japan Alliance in the Post World War II Period,quot; Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies, No.3, 2016, p.31.It participates in the US-led alliance network in West Pacific so as to constrain China and gain more autonomy.31Shin Kawashima, quot;Japan-America-China Relations during the Trump Administration and the Outlook for East Asia,quot; Asia-Pacific Review, Vol.24, No.1, 2017, p.27.In order to balance the US-Japan alliance, China and Russia have developed and consolidated a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination.Nevertheless, to slow the decline in its geopolitical power, Russia needs the assistance of other countries, and Japan can offer exactly what Russia needs in terms of economic and security support. This is an opportunity that the Abe administration has seized. To promote closer bilateral relations, the Abe administration is positively expanding its interactions with Russia, especially in economic and diplomatic fields. This is beneficial for both countries to obtain an advantageous position in two trilateral relations, i.e. the Russia-Japan-China triangle and the US-Japan-Russia triangle.

Constraints on Japan-Russia Rapprochement

Since Putin's visit to Japan at the end of 2016, relations between Japan and Russia have prospered, emerging from the strain in the wake of the Ukraine crisis. The negotiations on their territorial dispute have also left the stage where each side clung to their historical position, moving forward where both sides promote joint economic activities on the disputed islands,plan for the future, and seek consensus. In June 2017, a group made up of officials and civilians from both countries visited some of the islands,and meetings at vice-ministerial level were held to discuss the specifics of joint economic activities. Nevertheless, there are still some deep-rooted disagreements and constraints that are obstacles to smooth cooperation between Japan and Russia.

Real breakthroughs unlikely in territorial dispute

Putin's visit to Japan at the end of 2016 can be summarized as achieving the following five outcomes: (1) confirming the resolution of both sides to solve their disputes by signing a peace treaty; (2) agreeing to start negotiations on relevant regulations with regard to joint economic activities on the disputed islands; (3) agreeing that joint economic activities will not harm either Japan's or Russia's stance on signing a peace treaty; (4) agreeing to study measures to improve local residents' freedom of movement such as grave visiting; and (5) agreeing on promoting cooperation of detailed projects in accordance to the plan of economic cooperation in eight fields.32quot;Northern Territories Special,quot; Asahi Shimbun, December 16, 2016.Beyond these achievements, some Japanese scholars have argued that despite Japan's wishful thinking that Russia would be equally serious with signing a peace treaty as long as Japan actively responds to Russia's demand in economic cooperation, Russia has not yet shown any hint of making concessions.33Shigeki Hakamada, quot;No Air of Concessions on Territorial Issue,quot; Asahi Shimbun, December 7, 2016,http://www.asahi.com/articles/DA3S12694168.html.The economic cooperation plan in eight fields was of course a great success for Russia, but the achievements in resolving the territorial dispute have remained limited; Putin is probably concerned with the 2018 presidential election and is therefore unlikely to make any decision that might affect his standing with the public and the military.34Miho Okada, quot;Achievements and Agendas of Japan-Russia Summit Meeting,quot; NHK, December 16,2016, https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/zh/.In August 2017, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed a document that established a Special Economic Zone on Shikotan Island where Russian laws are applied.This has raised discomfort and concern in Japan.35quot;Russia's Designation of Special Zone on Shikotan Cannot be Overlooked,quot; Yomiuri Shimbun, August 25, 2017, http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0003902169.In Japan's view, Russia seemed to attempt to strike the Japanese government by surprise thus forcing Japan to make concessions in negotiations. Russia's act demonstrates that negotiations on the territorial dispute are unrelated to its economic cooperation agenda. Sergei Lousianin, Director of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at the Russian Academy of Science, among other experts, believes concessions from Russia on the territorial dispute would be unacceptable to the public and military, who would consider Russia's compromise as a blow to its national honor and a danger to its material interests. It would also destabilize domestic politics and deteriorate regional and international situation, creating a dangerous precedent that would rewrite the outcome of the Second World War.36quot;Seven Reasons Russia Cannot Transfer the Kurils to Japan,quot; Sputnik News, September 13, 2016,http://sputniknews.cn/politics/201609131020741640.For any Russian government, making any territorial concession to Japan would be its downfall. In particular, when Russia faces political and economic challenges at the moment, answering to nationalist pursuits secures legitimacy of the government; therefore territorial concessions are highly unlikely.

Geopolitical constraints in Northeast Asia

First, the depth and development of Japan-Russia relations are constrained by the relations between China and Russia, which have already reached political consensus on maintaining stability in Northeast Asia,opposing a US-led unipolar world and collectively upholding international peace and security in the post-war era.37China-Russia Joint Statement on a New Stage of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination,quot; Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, May 20, 2014, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/ziliao_674904/1179_674909/t1157763.shtml.China and Russia also share the same ground on opposing Japan's attempt to alter the geopolitical security structure of Northeast Asia.

Second, the structural contradiction between the United States and Russia is a challenge for Japan to further its relations with Russia. The US is urging Japan to shoulder more responsibilities, which forces Japan to follow the West and impose sanctions on Russia. However, Russia would like Japan to play an independent role and therefore Japan's economic sanctions on Russia have been criticized as being unable to practice an autonomous foreign policy.38quot;Russia Blames Japan for Stalemate of High-Level Interactions,quot; Xinhua, April 18, 2015, http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/ 2015-04/18/c_1115011190.htm.The dilemma Japan faces was evident during the Ukraine crisis. On the one hand Japan censured Russia, expressing its support for Ukraine's Poroshenko government. On the other hand Japan carefully maintained its space for future improvement in its relations with Russia.39Wang Xianju, quot;Russia-Japan Relations before and after the Ukraine Crisis,quot; Russian, East European amp;Central Asian Studies, No.4, 2016, p.49.As shown, it is plausible that as long as the US-Russia confrontation continues,Japan's foreign policy will always be fettered and a breakthrough in security cooperation with Russia is therefore unlikely.

The structural contradiction between the United States and Russia is a challenge for Japan to further its relations with Russia.

Lastly, the consolidation of the US-Japan alliance has greatly restrained Russia and Japan from approaching each other. For the United States, the alliance is of global importance, rather than a simple regional relationship. As a result, the US hopes Japan to participate in furthering Russia's diplomatic isolation, instead of merely imposing economic sanctions.40Gilbert Rozman, Japan-Russia Relations: Implications for the US-Japan Alliance, p.55.The US believes that the all-round Russia-Japan economic cooperation will greatly undermine the US-led political isolation and economic sanctions against Russia. Therefore the US is unhappy to see Japan and Russia seeking cordial relations. Before Abe's visit to Russia in April 2016, then US President Barack Obama reminded him that the United States was currently opposed to Russia in Syria and Ukraine, and that the US frowned on Japan seeking to improve ties with Russia.41quot;US Expresses Concern for Prime Minister's Russia Visit: Yachi,quot; March 3, 2016, http://www.news24.jp/articles/2016/03/03/ 04323909.html.Yet it is worth noting that the US is not interested in the territorial dispute between Japan and Russia and is negative on the possibility that an agreement on the territorial dispute could be reached between the two. Russia is unlikely to make any concessions as noted previously, and Abe's proposals are unlikely to receive any valuable response from Russia.42Frank S. Jannuzi,quot; US Cares Little about Japan's Northern Territories,quot; Asahi Shimbun, December 10,2016, http://www.asahi.com/ articles/DA3S12699607.html.

Public opinion under-prepared

The Abe administration seized the opportunity to restart negotiations with Russia at a time when the latter faced both external and internal challenges, seeking a solution to the territorial dispute through personal diplomacy between Putin and Abe. In developing bilateral relations, Abe has been active and accessible while Putin has remained welcoming. But in contrast to the attitude of the Abe administration, the Japanese people are less approving of the warming relations between the two countries.A survey by Asahi Shimbun demonstrated that after Putin's visit at the end of 2016, 45 percent of the public were positive about the meeting and 41 percent negative, showing a clear division. The same survey found that only 27 percent of the Japanese people believed that the meeting had made progress, while 70 percent thought it had made none.43quot;70% Feel No Progress in Japan-Russia Negotiations on Territorial Disputes: Asahi Opinion Poll,quot;Asahi Shimbun, December 19, 2016, http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASJDM4Q7ZJDMUZPS003.html.Nevertheless, a survey conducted by Mainichi Shimbun found that more than 60 percent of the Japanese people supported Japan hosting this meeting and expected the territorial dispute to be solved in the near future.44quot;60% Support Joint Economic Activities on Northern Territories: Mainichi Opinion Poll,quot; Mainichi Shimbun, December 19, 2016, https://mainichi.jp/articles/ 20161219/ddm/001/010/068000c.In another collective survey conducted by Sankei Shimbun and Fuji TV, while most people were supportive of joint economic activities on the disputed islands, they were worried about the public security situation on these Russian-resided islands.45quot;Joint Economic Activities Confirmed in Japan-Russia Summit Receive Majority Support, while Concern over Public Security Remains,quot; Sankei Shimbun, December 19, 2016, http://www.sankei.com/politics/news/161219/plt1612190054-n1.html.

Compared to that in Japan, the public opinion in Russia is still concerned about the territorial dispute instead of the practical interests that a Japan-Russia rapprochement may bring. It is believed that there will be no real progress in bilateral relations until the territorial dispute is solved.Since the importance of the economic partnership between Japan and Russia is limited, Russians are generally opposed to making territorial concessions in exchange for economic cooperation with Japan.46Bapeлuǔ Кucmaнoв Moжнo ли гoвopить o пpopывe в poccийcкo-япoнcкиx oтнoшeнияx. //BAЛДAE. 24 Mapтa 2017, http://ru.valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/proryv-rossiya-yaponiya.Russia's establishment of the Special Economic Zone on Shikotan Island was interpreted by the Japanese media as propaganda for Putin's next presidential election.47quot;Russia's Designation of Special Zone on Shikotan Cannot be Overlooked,quot; Yomiuri Shimbun.This shows that people in the two countries have different understandings of Japanese-Russian relations and different perceptions of each other. This brings more uncertainties to relations between the two.

Conclusion

Japanese-Russian relations are of great importance to the geopolitics in Northeast Asia. Since the end of the Cold War, the two countries have gradually established a new framework for bilateral relations beyond ideological differences. Currently, Russia and Japan are motivated internally and externally to approach each other. The second Abe administration has actively approached Russia economically and diplomatically, seeking political consensus with Russia and promoting real changes in their relations. Putin also desires to escape from Russia's geopolitical dilemma by developing a new type of relations with Japan,completing his Asian strategy of Looking East. Under these circumstances,relations between Japan and Russia have demonstrated more new features,and have become deeper and broader. Although their relations are constrained by many factors, the two countries are strengthening their ties via security and economic cooperation, creating new uncertainties for China. In response to the improving relations between Japan and Russia,China should maintain its strategic posture and confidence, deal with its relations with Russia and Japan patiently, strive to further deepen its comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination with Russia and seek to guide relations with Japan in the correct direction.

Yan Dexue is Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Russian Studies, East China Normal University;

Sun Chao is a doctoral student at the School of International Relations amp; Public Affairs, Fudan University.1 quot;Putin: Frequent Dialogues with Japan Help Solve Long Existing Problems,quot; Sputnik News, July 8,2017, http://sputniknews.cn/politics/201707081023059648.