China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative Is Boon for Asia Capital Markets“一帶一路”：亞洲資本市場的福音

文/戈登·弗蘭奇 譯/安硯貞

By Gordon French1

China’s “Belt and Road” infrastructure investment drive will help boost the flow of physical goods across large swathes of Eurasia, southern Asia and even parts of Africa and the Middle East. Less obvious is the impact that the vast amount of spending linked to the initiative2initiative倡議。will have in the financial arena—in the currency and bond markets in Asia and beyond.

[2] First announced in 2013, the “Belt and Road” initiative is an essential part of China’s domestic economic rebalancing, and of its outbound ambitions. The initiative entails ploughing billions of dollars into the hardware—railways,highways and ports—that links China and the dozens of countries to its west and south. The goal is to encourage more cross-border trade3cross-bordertrade跨境貿(mào)易。while putting excess capacities4excess capacities過剩產(chǎn)能。to work.

[3] The impact on the software of financing will also be significant: the vast amounts of money needed to meet Asia’s infrastructure needs will inject fresh momentum into the region’s capital markets.

[4] Investment in planned and ongoing “Belt and Road” projects could total Rmb1.5tn (roughly $240bn) in the coming years. Part of this will come via a$40bn Silk Road Fund, and the newlylaunched $100bn Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)5亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資銀行。.

[5] Yet this is only a small part of the trillions that will need to flow into transport and urban infrastructure over the coming decades as developing nations aim to raise productivity and deal with rising urbanization6urbanization城鎮(zhèn)化。. In China alone,more than 200m people are expected to leave their fields and villages for jobs in the city in the next 15 years. Across Asia, the total is about 640m.

[6] Reforms in China have expanded the options available to foreign and domestic investors and issuers in recent years—from “dim sum” bonds (renminbidenominated, issued outside the Chinese mainland) to “panda” bonds (renminbidenominated, issued by non-Chinese entities but sold in the Chinese mainland).

[7] The “Belt and Road” initiative will trigger more issuance and investment.What is more, it could galvanise7galvanise激勵。China’s financial reforms, and encourage policymakers to further open the country’s capital market to global participants.

[8] This is good news. A more liquid and diverse bond market will help improve the allocation of capital, reduce the Chinese economy’s heavy reliance on bank lending, and expand financing options for private companies, whose growth is key to the economic rebalancing that Beijing is trying to achieve.

[9] As a global financial centre in China, Hong Kong has a critical role to play. The city is home to a large,world-class financial and professionalservices industry, deep and well established capital markets, a respected regulatory framework and the world’s largest offshore8offshore離岸（金融中心）。pool of renminbi—key ingredients for the task of connecting the supply of capital to the demand for investment opportunities. Hong Kong’s combination of global connections and understanding of the local situation is unique and will give it an edge in financing the “Belt and Road” initiative.

[10] Local-currency markets in other countries along the “Belt and Road”routes could also get a crucial boost from the initiative.

[11] Emerging Asian local-currency bond markets have developed rapidly.Outstanding9outstanding已發(fā)行尚未償還的（債券）。volumes of such bonds have soared from $836bn at the end of 2000 to $8.78tn late last year, according to the Asian Development Bank.

[12] “Belt and Road”-related spending will help provide the “push-factor”that will provide much-needed breadth,depth and liquidity to many of Asia’s smaller markets. The effect of the AIIB and other issuers tapping these local markets for “Belt and Road”-related financing will be to widen the local credit universe, attract investor attention globally, and expand corporate access to long-term capital around the region.

[13] A “pull-factor” is also at work here, in the form of Asian cash looking for yield and investment options.

[14] Many of Asia’s economies are still growing well above the global average. In the Asean region—comprising the 10 member nations of the Southeast Asian grouping—the middle class is set to double by 2025. While household,corporate and government debt levels have risen in parts of the region, they mostly remain low compared to those in the developed world. And for an ageing population in many countries in the region, the stable income provided by bonds can be an attractive investment option as retirement approaches.

[15] This convergence10convergence契合。of supply and demand could help transform Asian financing markets in the coming years,expanding the role of bond markets in recycling Asian savings into longterm investment in infrastructure for growth—especially if policy makers manage to bring about more cohesion11cohesion凝聚力。in areas like taxation, foreign exchange regulation and credit ratings12credit ratings信用評級。.

[16] On the currency front, meanwhile,more and more of the increased trade that “Belt and Road” facilitates will be settled in renminbi. In other words, the initiative will help boost the internationalisation of the Chinese currency.

[17] The “Belt and Road” initiative will help make it easier for trucks, ships and trains to transport goods around large parts of the globe. But it could well have another valuable impact in oiling the wheels of finance. ■

中國的“一帶一路”基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資會助推有形商品在大片區(qū)域的流動，包括歐亞大陸、南亞，甚至非洲和中東的部分地區(qū)。不那么顯而易見的是與這一倡議相關(guān)的大規(guī)模支出對于金融領(lǐng)域，即對亞洲及其他地區(qū)貨幣和債券市場的影響。

[2]“一帶一路”倡議于2013年首次提出，是中國國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟再平衡、實現(xiàn)走出去雄心的一個重要舉措。這意味著要將數(shù)十億美元資金投入鐵路、公路、港口等硬件建設(shè)，這些硬件將中國與其西面和南面的數(shù)十個國家連接起來。其目標是鼓勵更多的跨境貿(mào)易，同時，將過剩產(chǎn)能投入使用。

[3]金融軟件也會受到重大影響：為滿足亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施需求而投入的巨額資金將為該區(qū)域的資本市場注入新動力。

[4]未來幾年，“一帶一路”倡議進行及正在進行的各項目投資總額可能高達1.5萬億元人民幣（約2400億美元）。部分資金將來自擁有400億美元資金的絲路基金，以及新成立的擁有1000億美元資金的亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資銀行（AIIB）。

[5]但這只是所需資金的一小部分，未來幾十年，發(fā)展中國家為提高生產(chǎn)率，應(yīng)對日益增長的城鎮(zhèn)化，需要投入數(shù)萬億資金到交通和城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)中。僅在中國，接下來的15年，預計將有超過2億人離開故土鄉(xiāng)村，到城市找工作。在整個亞洲，這樣的人約有6.4億。

[6]近些年，中國的改革使國內(nèi)外的投資者以及債券發(fā)行人有了更多的選擇——從“點心債券”（在中國大陸之外發(fā)行、以人民幣計價的債券）到“熊貓債券”（由非中國實體發(fā)行、但在中國大陸銷售、以人民幣計價的債券）。

[7]“一帶一路”倡議將帶動更多的債券發(fā)行和投資，而且會激勵中國的金融改革，鼓勵決策者進一步向全球參與者開放國內(nèi)資本市場。

[8]這是好消息。一個更加流動、多元的債券市場將有助于改善資本配置，減少中國經(jīng)濟對銀行貸款的嚴重依賴，為私營公司提供更多融資選擇。私營公司的增長對于中國所努力實現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟再平衡非常關(guān)鍵。

[9]香港是中國的全球金融中心，其作用至關(guān)重要。香港擁有世界一流的大規(guī)模金融和專業(yè)服務(wù)行業(yè)、深厚健全的資本市場、備受尊敬的監(jiān)管體系和世界最大的人民幣離岸中心——這些是將資金供給與投資機遇的需求相結(jié)合的關(guān)鍵要素。中國香港聯(lián)通世界，又諳熟國內(nèi)情況，此獨特之處將為其在“一帶一路”倡議融資中贏得競爭優(yōu)勢。

[10]“一帶一路”沿線其他國家的本幣市場也可能從該倡議中獲得重大推動。

[11]新興的亞洲本幣債券市場已經(jīng)有了快速發(fā)展。亞洲開發(fā)銀行的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，已發(fā)行尚未償還的這類債券金額已經(jīng)從2000年年底的8360億美元劇增到2015年晚些時候的8.78萬億美元。

[12]與“一帶一路”相關(guān)的支出將帶來“推動因素”，為亞洲的很多小市場提供亟需的市場寬度、深度和流動性。亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資銀行和其他發(fā)行者為“一帶一路”進行相關(guān)融資而發(fā)掘利用這些市場，這會拓寬當?shù)匦刨J領(lǐng)域，吸引全球投資者關(guān)注，擴大該區(qū)域企業(yè)獲得長期資本的渠道。

[13]“拉動因素”也在發(fā)揮作用，其表現(xiàn)是亞洲資金在尋找更多的回報和投資選擇。

[14]很多亞洲經(jīng)濟體的增長速度仍在世界平均水平之上。在東南亞國家聯(lián)盟（由10個東南亞國家組成）地區(qū)，中產(chǎn)階層人數(shù)到2025年將翻倍。雖然在該地區(qū)部分國家，家庭、企業(yè)和政府債務(wù)水平已經(jīng)上升，但大部分國家的債務(wù)水平仍比發(fā)達國家低。而且，對該地區(qū)很多國家的老齡人口來說，隨著退休臨近，債券所帶來的穩(wěn)定收益會成為頗具吸引力的投資選擇。

[15]供給和需求的這種契合可能有助于亞洲金融市場未來幾年的轉(zhuǎn)型，擴大債券市場在將亞洲的儲蓄轉(zhuǎn)化為增長所需的長期基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資上的作用——如果政策制定者努力在稅收、外匯管制和信用評級等領(lǐng)域達到更多的協(xié)調(diào)一致，則成效會更為顯著。

[16]同時，在貨幣方面，“一帶一路”所助增的貿(mào)易將越來越多地以人民幣結(jié)算。換句話說，該倡議將促進人民幣的國際化。

[17]“一帶一路”倡議將使卡車、輪船和火車在世界大部分地區(qū)更方便地運輸貨物。而該倡議也肯定會對加快金融發(fā)展產(chǎn)生積極影響。 □

（譯者單位：廣東工業(yè)大學）