Urban Motorization and Traffic Congestion Challenge in the City of Beijing:Application of A Formal Policy Analysis Paradigm〔*〕

Yao Yang

(Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences，Guangzhou Guangdong 510410)

Ⅰ．Construction of alternative policy responses

This policy analysis will focus on Beijing’s traffic congestion mitigation when the city is in the process of urban motorization．A series of alternatives to ease traffic congestion will be given after research on“best practices”of other cities and policy proposals that are emerging．At last，a preferred policy option will be chose according to the criteria，and a comprehensive recommendation will also be given．

A number of alternatives are given according to the specific circumstances of Beijing，including:increasing Beijing’s traffic capacity，pricing strategy，public transportation development，management of bicycles，staggered starting and ending time of workday，upgrading driver and pedestrian’s behaviors．

Alternative 1:Increasing Beijing’s traffic capacity

Building more freeways and highways，adding more lanes to existing roads，building overhead road，and underground rail system can increase the traffic capacity and will help to relieve the traffic congestion．Road is a public good for free，so the increase of road will stimulate the demand for road．Increasing road capacity can only solve the problem of congestion partially and temporarily．In the long run，simply increasing the capacity of road may even aggravate the congestion，since the capacity is ultimately limited and the demand always increases．More people choose to use private cars;less people will use public transportation．Then the supply of public transportation will decrease，which may force more people to use private cars．The vicious circle makes the congestion more and more severe．So When Beijing plans to add the capacity of traffic，we have to make sure we distribute more added capacity to public transit system，such as public bus lane，high － occupancyvehicle(HOV)lanes，underground rail system，light rail system，which will more effectively relieve traffic congestion in Beijing．

Alternative 2:Pricing strategy

There are several options of pricing strategies can be deployed in Beijing．The first is to impose more tax and fee for any private vehicles annually．This method is easy and will effectively discourage people to use private vehicles．But this method will also discourage the whole automobile industry which is very important to Chinese economy at present．The second one is to impose gasoline tax，which simply means the more you drive，the more you pay．The method is fair，but makes no difference between the congestion routes and non－ congestion routes，and also peak periods and off－ peak periods．The third one is to charge congestion fee for congestion roads during peak hours，which remedy the disadvantages of the first two options．Although it eases the congestion of the pricing roads，it may cause the congestion of other roads．What’s more，the time spent at the toll station can also cause congestion．Thus technical support is important in this option，such as electronic monitors，electronic cards．

Alternative 3:Public transportation development

Beijing can provide a mix of public transportation services to enhance local and regional mobility，transporting people and facilitating their accessibility efficiently，effectively，and safely while respecting the environment．He Zuoxiu，a scholar from the Chinese Academy of Sciences，has suggested“the city’s surface and underground public transportation systems should be integrated，enabling people to move around as conveniently as driving their own cars．

Alternative 4:Management of bicycles

According to the statistics by official data，2．5 million bicycles are used in Beijing every day．It is a common phenomenon that bicyclists weave their ways be-tween buses，trucks and other motor vehicles．It causes a lot of traffic accidents and traffic congestion．How to control the use of bicycles becomes a very tough problem，since those who use bicycles usually are the low － income group．Neither charging extra money nor full restriction of using bicycles is good solution by the criteria of social equity．At present，restriction of using time and routes of bicycles and stricter punishment of disobedience of traffic rules should be given to manage the bicycles．

Alternative 5:Staggered starting and ending time of the workday

Beijing first adopted staggered workday start and end times in 1984 but it was discontinued later．

Staggered starting times of the workday is also an alternative for decrease the traffic demand at rush hours．This programs stagger student，government employees and private sector employees’starting and ending times by half hours to two － hour ranges．The usual practice is that students start class at 8 a．m．and end at 4 p．m．，government employees start work at 8:30a．m．and end at 5 p．m．，the private sector employees start at 9 to 9:30 a．m．and end at 6 to 6:30 p．m．．Flexible working time or working at home is encouraged for some kind of the jobs，which do not need strict restriction of working time．The fast development of telecommunications and computer technology has made possible the idea of working at home for reducing the traffic pressure．The main purpose of this program is to“shift some people out of the peak commuting period in order to relieve traffic congestion”(Arlington Transportation Partners)．

Alternative 6:Upgrading driver and pedestrian’s behaviors

Although Beijing holds a far smaller number of motor vehicles than big cities as New York and London，the traffic congestion is even severe than these cites．Drivers and pedestrians have poor awareness of following the traffic rules and poor behavior，is one of the major reasons for traffic jam in Beijing．According the report from traffic department，25% of the traffic congestion is caused by traffic accident．In order to upgrading drivers’driving skills and both drivers and pedestrians’behaviors，government should have stricter punishments for violation of traffic rules and also stricter driving test for driving license．

Ⅱ．Specific criteria used in making evaluation

A series of measurable criteria including mobility，cost－ effectiveness，accessibility，reliability，equity，sustainability，feasibility will be used to score the alternatives，in order to find the best alternatives that conform to the overall goals of the plan to deal with the traffic congestion in Beijing．

Mobility:Mobility is one of the most important criteria to evaluate the alternatives that are planned to solve or reduce the traffic congestion problem．Mobility is the expected outcome of the alternatives performance．The mobility will be measured by two main indicators:average daily speed and average daily delay．Average daily speed is the speed experienced by daily travelers in kilometer per hour regardless of the traveling mode(Southern California Association of Governments，2003)．Delay is the average gap between the actual travel time and the expected travel time that would be experienced by daily traveler if there was no traffic congestion occurring．

Cost effectiveness:Cost effectiveness shows the level to which plan expenditures in the alternative yield benefits that the travelers gain．Evaluation of cost of each alternative is crucial，since financial resource is always limited for government．Limited financial resource will be allocated to the plans that benefit more．It tries to measure how much benefits from the money spent in each alternative．The estimated benefits include time saved，energy saved，reductions in vehicle operating costs，safety improvements，etc．The estimated benefits will be converted into Yuans，and added together，and then divided by the estimated investment of each alternative．

Accessibility:Accessibility is an indicator to measure the convenience of travel in the point view of travelers who use the traffic system．A good alternative should make traffic services accessible to different users，in terms of age，occupation，geographical location，and income，and also for“different travel opportunities，such as jobs，educations，medical care，recreation，shopping，or other activities that help improve people’s lives”(Southern California Association of Governments，2003)．

Reliability:The measure of reliability reflects the degree to which road users experience differences in the daily travel．In other words，it is the predictability of the traveler’s travel time．The criterion is different from mobility(which measures the speed of the transportation system)and accessibility(which emphasize on the how well the system provides access to various travel opportunities for various groups)．Reliability address on the variation of mobility and accessibility from day to day．

Equity:Since traffic system is a public good，it is very important to emphasize on the equity issue of each alternative．As for road users who use the traffic system，this means whether the implementation of one policy is regarded as having a disproportionate impact on some groups relative to others．According to Peter Jones(2005)“this assessment may made both by reference to conditions‘internal’to the operation of the scheme，and/or by taking into account‘external’conditions”．

Sustainability:Sustainability here refers to how one alternative adopted today fits the future trends and development and also positively affects on traffic congestion mitigation in the long run．A transportation policy alternative is sustainable if it maintains overall effective performance to mitigate traffic congestion over time．If the alternative is not sustainable，which means it can only solve the traffic jams in the short run，it wastes the government’s money，time，and efforts to carry out a new policy，and is also the huge waste of social re-sources．

Feasibility:Evaluation of feasibility is to analyze the possibility of implementing alternative in the point of view of government．It includes a lot of questions，such as how difficult it is to carry out the policy，does the alternative budgeting fits the government’s budgeting，does the technical support meet the requirement，how long it will take to see the result of the policy，does the program meet the environmental requirement．

Ⅲ．Applying criteria and project outcomes

A comprehensive evaluation of the 6 alternatives(Increasing Traffic Capacity，Pricing Strategy，Public Transportation Management，Management of Bicycles，Staggered working time，Upgrading Drivers and Pedestrians’Behaviors)will be given according to the criteria represented a variety of indicators:mobility，cost－ effectiveness，accessibility，reliability，equity，sustainability，feasibility．

Alternative 1:Increasing Traffic Capacity Increasing traffic capacity is method that has been used in Beijing for many years．A huge number of money was spent every year，but traffic congestion situation does not seem to straighten up．More hours were wasted on the roads for daily commuters．When the roads were widened，more residents chose to use private cars as their travel mode for their own convenience．The result is the increasing traffic capacity is mostly occupied by the private car users，which accounts for only 10－15% of the total population in Beijing．The other residents cannot benefit from the increasing traffic capacity．Even worse，they suffered more congestion hours caused by the soaring increase of private vehicles．The feasibility for government to carry out the plan is high，while the cost－ effectiveness，social equity，and accessibility of this alternative are quite low．The average travel speed may be increased unless government allocates more the traffic capacity for public transportation，or high － occupancy vehicles．

Alternative 2:Pricing strategy Pricing strategy will decrease the traffic demand for private car users，which will lead to mitigation of traffic congestion．It is a decrease of mobility for individual private car users．But it increases the mobility of the city as a whole．It is a fair policy to implicate the idea that the more your travel adds the road capacity，the more money you should pay．More over，the fees and taxes collected from the pricing can be invested in public transportation infrastructure，which will provide more alternative travel models．As for the feasibility of government carry out this policy，it needs a long policy process to decide the detailed strategy and also needs technical support．

Alternative 3:Public transportation development Development of public transportation in Beijing is a good balance of mobility，reliability，accessibility，equity，and sustainability．It can fundamentally solve the conflict between traffic capacity and traffic demand．The suggested plans，such as Rapid Bus System，and Subway Construction，cost a lot of investment，but it is still financially affordable to the Capital City．And more flexible and market modes such as BOT(build －operate transfer)or TOT(transfer－operate transfer)can be adopted．It takes a long time to build a sound public transportation system in Beijing，but it solves the problem in the long run．A convenient public transportation system is the best alternative according to a comprehensive evaluation by applying the criteria chose in this policy analysis．

Alternative 4:Management of bicycles Management of bicycles is a method to decrease the bicyclists’road demand on the certain roads on the certain time．It encourages residents to use more public transportation，such buses，subway．It will also improve the external circumstance of traffic when bicyclists in Beijing strictly obey the traffic rules and regulations．A lot of traffic accidents can be avoided，thus the non－recurring traffic congestion will be mitigated．The method is low －cost and effective in short time for the city of Beijing where 2．5 million bicycles are used everyday．Equity is the most concern in the option of bicycle management．Restriction on time and routes for bicyclists will affects their traveling need．As mentioned above，bicyclists in Beijing are usually low － income groups or those whose accessibility to jobs cannot be conveniently provided．This alternative will be better implemented after public transportation system becomes satisfying to residents．

Alternative 5:Staggered starting and ending time of the workday The practice to stagger starting and ending time of the workday decreases the traffic capacity during peak hours．It can effectively increase traffic congestion．Although Beijing is city with strong feature of administrative order，a large scope of agreement for cooperation by schools，government organizations，and business is needed．The implementation at the beginning is expected to be difficult，and some adjustments and accessorial plans will be necessary．For example，most of the elementary schools except some private schools in Beijing do not have school bus．Due to safety concern，the parents need to send and pick up the children early than their own working schedule．Thus a careful feasibility study is important before implementation of this plan．The plan itself needs only small amount of budget．But the accessorial plans，such as school bus plan or after－school class plan make the alternative complicated．

Alternative 6:Upgrading drivers and pedestrians’traffic behavior This alternative will partially alleviate the traffic congestion and increase the travel speed for road users in the short time．But in the long run，it cannot solve Beijing’s traffic congestion，since poor behavior of drivers and pedestrians is only a small part of the reason that causes the problem．It cannot solve the problem thoroughly．The obvious advantage of this alternative is the low cost for government．Government agencies’enhancement of traffic rules and regulations is more important than anything in this alternative．On the whole，neither traffic capacity increases，nor the traffic demand decrease in this alternative;none of the traveling pattern is changed．It only improves the external circumstances of traffic，which can lead decrease of non－recurring traffic congestion caused by poor traffic behavior of drivers and pedestrians．

Ⅳ．Recommendation

All of the above alternatives can lead to a certain degree of reduction in congestion，but it is the option of public transportation that has the most dramatic effect on relieving congestion fundamentally．Public transportation option，to provide a mix of public transportation services to enhance local and regional mobility in the Beijing，transports people and facilitates their accessibility efficiently，effectively，and safely while respecting the environment．It suits China and also the city of Beijing’s present situations and circumstances．

The pricing strategy is a good solution for traffic congestion．However，as mention above，when Beijing is still in the stage of motorization，this policy will hurt the developing auto industry．Thus this alternative is more suitable for Beijing in the long run．Another three options:upgrading driver and pedestrian’s behavior，stagger working time，and management bicycles currently are all effective and low －cost methods to mitigate traffic congestion to some degree，but they cannot solve the fundamental problem．As for the option of increasing road capacity，though the score is the lowest，it is necessary and important，since Beijing’s road system is not complete yet．

However，no certain one solution can solve the whole problem thoroughly．Alternatives in the above categories can be effectively combined and deployed in Beijing to mitigate congestion and improve mobility，reliability，convenience，easiness and social equity．

Successful congestion mitigation requires not only preferred policies and plans that are carried out by government．It also requires cooperation among the whole society，such as transportation agencies，public safety agencies，businesses，and every individual in the city of Beijing．It is important to arouse the public’s awareness that they should all work together to solve the congestion problem．

Notes:

〔1〕Xin Hua， Beijingers spend lives on road as traffic congestion worsens，2003 －10 －06 14:55，http://www．chinadaily．com．cn/en/doc/2003 －10/06/content_269518．htm．

〔2〕China Sustainable Transportation Center， The existing bus rapid transit(BRT)line，http://www．chinastc．org/news．asp，August 16，2006．

〔3〕Arlington Transportation Partners， What are alternatives work schedules?http://www．commuterpage．com．

〔4〕Chinadaily， Forget the congestion fee，Chinadaily．com．cn，January 11，2007 Thursday．

〔5〕Jones，Peter， Addressing Equity Concerns in Relation to Road User Charging，Transport Studies Group，University of Westminster(UK)，2005．